Sunday Six Pack: Week 17

It is week 17 – the week that redraft fantasy football dies but not dynasty. This is the week that starters rest, backups get snaps, injured players call it quits, and we get the first glimpse of what can be in 2020 is seen in certain situations. Week 17 is a key week at the beginning of the dynasty season and we are going to look at six topics on the minds of fantasy degenerates everywhere as we enter the final week of the NFL’s regular season.

Let us crack open the first can of the DLF Sunday Six Pack with a little sip of some Philadelphia Eagles running back talk.

1.) Miles Sanders: A Future Bell Cow?

The rookie has finally got his run and oh, how he has run with it… Sanders has been all the team could have hoped since the loss of Jordan Howard opened up the opportunity for a clear lead role. In the Doug Pederson era, there has been one two-game sample of a running back receiving >=80% of the snaps in a game. Darren Sproles posted back-to-back games in weeks eight (81%) and nine (80%) of 2016! Until week 11 of 2019, there had not been another back to reach this mark. Sanders has now done it four times since then. In fact, the only game with fewer than 71% (per FootballGuys.com), Sanders missed time due to dehydration.

Again though, it happened to correlate with the loss of Howard. Was that the only reason?

Miles Sanders 2019 Splits (w/ and w/o Jordan Howard)

Below are the 2019 splits for Sanders with Howard. You see that Sanders has taken advantage of his increased opportunities in the Eagles offense. He has seen some regression in terms of his efficiency metrics in the passing game as you see in the second chart below but that can be expected as the volume increases. Sanders has seen an increase in attempts rushing (+7.23 per game), and targets (+2.17 per game) which has led to an obvious increase in his production with the exception of receiving yardage.

Volume And Production Splits

Data via FFStatistics Splits App

Efficiency Metric Splits

The most important increase for fantasy is undoubtedly the tripling of the number of touchdowns he is scoring. Now, you may say that the increase in volume is the one to count on and you would be correct. Volume is much stickier than scoring. Where you receive that volume on the field is just as important though. You want high-value touches.

High-Value Touches

Through the first nine games of the season, Sanders and Howard had split the red zone carries 11/22. Howard saw double the high-value carries that Sanders did. The rookie is a much more explosive weapon than Howard but a player cannot always score from outside the 20 yard-line as Sanders had to do on both of his touchdowns prior to Week 11 which went for 32 and 65 yards. Sanders has four touchdowns following Howard’s absence and they all came within the 20-yard line.

The red zone touches per game have increased from 1.2 through nine games to 2.5 in the last six. There was a chance for the veteran back to play in week 16 but was ruled out prior to the game. This would imply that he should be fully ready for week 17. We can assume that Howard might return to the short-yardage option being the larger back but does he return to being the primary red zone threat as well?

All mock draft results via DLF ADP Data.

This will be the predicament that the Sanders and Howard owners will be looking for the answers to in week 17 and possibly through the playoffs. You can see above that dynasty owners have yet to fully buy-in and for good reason. If Sanders can hold onto the increased usage in the red zone and passing game, 2020 could see a top-12 RB in Philly.

Contract

Howard is an unrestricted free agent in 2020 and likely not back with the team while Sanders is a second-round pick. There are no guarantees that even if Howard is changing area codes following the season, that the Eagles do not add another piece to the backfield but again if Sanders shows he can handle the load, the piece they add may be far less detrimental to his future volume.

2.) Saquon Barkley: The RB2 Or Better, Again?

During fantasy drafts, Barkley was an undisputed top-three option at the running back position and overall. In weeks one and two, he looked every bit the top-three pick we expected. Averaging 14.5 attempts rushing, 113.5 yards rushing, caught 3.5 of 6.5 targets for 23.5 yards receiving with 0.5 total touchdowns per game provided great early return. Then in week three, a severe high ankle sprain put a major speed bump in front of the New York Giants’ star. Barkley missed the next three games but returned with super-human like quickness.

The return may have been hasty though. Barkley averaged 16.7 attempts, 53.3 yards, caught 4.3 of 6 targets, 31.1 yards receiving, and 0.2 touchdowns per game from weeks 7-14. The injury may have contributed to the stretch of down production but Barkley was still the RB20 in standard and 13 in PPR. The last two weeks have reminded us why he went so high. He is averaging 23 attempts for 150.5 yards with 1.5 touchdowns on the ground. Just that alone would have the dynamic back ranked as the RB3 in standard and RB4 in PPR. Now add in the four receptions on 4.5 targets for 60.5 yards and half a score and you have the RB2 in standard and 1 in PPR – right where you took him in your 2019 startup.

What Is Different?

It would be easy to say Barkley just was not healthy or maybe the difference in quarterback had an effect. Both can, in fact, be true but we are going to look at the difference in usage and production with two different quarterbacks under center. Below are the splits in Daniel Jones and Eli Manning starts and there are some interesting ones to compare. You can see that in starts by the rookie quarterback, Barkley is not seeing any real increase in his opportunities in the passing game but has been far more effective on them.

There is a 3.5 increase in yard per target when Jones throws the ball to Barkley vs when Manning does. This would imply that Jones is not just targeting Barkley on dump-off passes but downfield more often as he did on the touchdown the two hooked up for in week 16.

All Splits data via FFStatistics Splits App.

At the same time, Jones is more mobile than Manning and Barkley’s share of the team’s attempts rushing has dipped slightly. The real concern is the efficiency displayed. In Jones’ starts, he is averaging 1.89 fewer yards per attempt. Is this due to injury hampering the Pro Bowler or maybe defenses fearing the pass less than when Manning is on the field? As odd as that sounds, Jones may be the more athletic playmaker at this point but the veteran certainly reads a defense better and can audible to plays that provide more opportunity for success. In week 16, Barkley had his best game with “Danny Dimes” under center and we need to see more of this because it will be Jones, not Manning going forward.

The Matchup

Week 17 will provide an interesting challenge with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town and needing a victory to lock up a playoff spot. The Eagles allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to backs and in week 14, the Eagles held Barkley to just 67 total yards on 20 touches (caught three of four targets) and are coming off a game in which they were able to hold Ezekiel Elliott to 84 total yards on 20 touches (caught seven of seven targets). This will be an interesting challenge for Barkley and if he has a high level of success in a tough matchup, you have to lock him in as the RB2 in 2020 startups.

3.) Is Alvin Kamara Back?

Through the first two years of Kamara’s career, he has averaged one touchdown per game (0.7 rushing, 0.3 receiving) and scored 31 times in 31 games and averaged 22.27 PPR fantasy points per game. This season has been considerably different as the third-year back has just four total touchdowns and is averaging 17.62 PPR fantasy points per game. That’s not bad, but not what you expected in return for a top-five consensus running back.

Has he finally recovered fully from the high-ankle sprain that was suffered in a week five showdown with the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Similar to Saquon Barkley, we do not know how much this hampered Kamara. One thing we can look at though is the usage. Kamara had been one of the most efficient touchdown threats in the league and again, we look at the high-value touch opportunities. In 2018, the electric running back averaged 4.8 red zone touches per game (72 total, second in the league). Kamara can score from anywhere on the field as we saw with his 40-yard touchdown run in week 16 but this does not mean it is not considerably easier to score from inside the 20 yard-line. There have been 34 such opportunities to speak of in 2019 (2.6 per game, 15th in the league).

Going Forward…

Through the first five weeks of the season and leading up to the injury, Kamara saw 11 high-value touches with two games of three or more. If we look at the other half of the Saints backfield, Latavius Murray had just one such touch through week five. The 2.2 red zone touches per game are still far less than what we have grown accustomed to from the former Tennessee Volunteer but still was leading the backfield by a very large margin. Following the high-ankle sprain to the team’s starter, Murray saw a four-game stretch in which he received 16 red zone touches (4.0 per game).

After week nine, the role reversed back to normal and Kamara has seen 14 touches inside the 20 yard-line (2.33 per game) in the six-game stretch while Murray has just four total. Again, a far cry from what we have been shown. Touchdowns come and go but the usage can be sticky and Kamara is the lead dog again in scoring position. In week 16, it paid off with a four-red-zone touch, tw0-touchdown game. Regression has begun.

In week 17, New Orleans will travel to take on the Carolina Panthers who are basically allowing the same fantasy production (32.0 PPR points per game) that Christian McCaffrey is producing (29.8 PPR fantasy points per game). The Saints backfield as a whole should be able to dominate this game and Murray could be the workhorse late if the Saints pull away in the second half but while the game is in question, look for Kamara to stay the primary option in scoring position.

Contract Situation

Murray is signed through 2022 and will cost the team over five million in dead cap money if they were to part ways prior to 2021 when the cap hit drops to 1.7 million. Then 850k in 2022. Murray is going to be in town for at least a year and the continued red-zone dominance for Kamara in week 17 and through the playoffs will leave a very good taste in owners’ mouths moving into 2020.

4.) The Baltimore Ravens’ Backfield

All NFL contract data via Spotrac.com.

Above you can see the contract situations for the three Baltimore Ravens running backs. We see that Mark Ingram is signed through 2021 with a potential out that same year ($1.3m dead cap). He is likely in town for at least one more season. Even though the veteran is clearly the lead back in Baltimore, there is still usage to be had for the ancillary pieces. Ingram and quarterback, Lamar Jackson had 378 attempts rushing in 2019 but the Ravens as a team rushed 552 times.

That leaves 174 more rushing opportunities to be had. Undrafted Gus Edwards, who will be an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA) in 2020, received 112 attempts rushing and caught all six of his targets. Edwards will have two options at the conclusion of 2019 – sign the contract tendered to him by the Ravens or sit on his couch. Robert Griffin ran 12 times from the quarterback slot while wide receiver Willie Snead and safety Anthony Levine each have one. The last player to receive attempts on the ground is the rookie from Oklahoma State, Justice Hill. The same Justice Hill that outplayed current NFL star Chris Carson during his freshman season as a Cowboy. The sixth-round rookie had 48 attempts rushing and caught 7 of 13 targets.

Can Hill Earn A Role?

The Ravens spent a fourth-round pick on Hill so one would assume they would like to try and get him involved in the offense but through most of 2019, he was hardly on the field at all. The Ravens’ third-stringer has five games all season with 20 or more percent of the snaps but Mark Ingram has already been announced out for the week. Gus Edwards saw a relatively consistent 30-35 percent of the snaps all season and will likely take over the lead role in Ingram’s absence.

Baltimore Running Back Snap Counts And Weekly Touch Splits

Snap count data via FFStatistics Snap Count App

Gus Edwards

• Weeks 1/7 – 7.42 attempts rushing per game (Caught 4/4 targets)
• Weeks 9/16 – 7.50 attempts rushing per game (Caught 2/2 targets)

Justice Hill

• Weeks 1/7 – 2.57 attempts rushing per game (Caught 3/7 targets)
• Weeks 9/16 – 3.75 attempts rushing per game (Caught 4/6 targets)

This could and should provide Hill with a much larger role in week 17 following his 18-yard touchdown run last week. Despite his snap counts staying similar all season as we saw above, the rookie is seeing an increase in his usage during the second half of the season. Now, we take into account that Robert Griffin III and not Lamar Jackson will be under center. Griffin will run similar plays to Jackson at times but there will certainly be far fewer attempts rushing for the quarterback and far more for the running backs. Hill needs to show his 133.0 burst (95th percentile) and the 4.4-second 40-yard (97th percentile) and the ability to stand up to an increased workload with a bit of a smaller stature (5’10, 198 lbs). He is signed through 2023…

5.) The Dallas Goedert Effect

The people are getting more and more excited about Philadelphia Eagles’ second-year tight end, Dallas Goedert. Not often in fantasy football is there a locked-in, every week TE1 for multiple years. Even rarer, the back-up tight end might actually be just as good. As 2019 has progressed, Goedert has gotten the chance to shine at times when teams focus on fellow tight end, Zach Ertz. There have been few consistent options due to a multitude of injuries that did not ease up in week 16. Ertz, a perennial Pro Bowler, took a few shots to the rib cage and missed time during the game.

• Out: (Ribs): Ertz exited the last game due to a fractured rib, and he will not face the Giants on Sunday. (Updated December 27, 2019) via ProFootballReference.com

The kid saw 12 targets in the game and hauled in nine of them for 91 yards and a score.

Temper Expectations, But Be Excited

Through the first four weeks of the season, Goedert averaged 1.3 receptions on 2.5 targets for 10.8 yards receiving and added in one touchdown. Since that point (ten games), the former South Dakota State tight end is averaging 4.9 receptions on 6.7 targets with 49.9 yards and four touchdowns. The volume has seen a massive spike. Something to remember is that the Eagles pass-catching options are so thin right. Carson Wentz has targeted a former quarterback double-digit times in recent weeks. Also, the Eagles likely have Ertz for a minimum of one more season before they have the option to cut ties. His potential out year is 2021 when there is $7.8m dead cap (zero dead cap the following year).

Ertz will head into his eighth season in 2020 and be 30 before the end of the regular season, but will certainly still garner a huge workload. Regardless, the second-year stud has endless potential and the Eagles can not keep him off the field. If they are both on the field, the middle is theirs to own. Ertz would no longer be a consensus top-three tight end if he is seeding any more volume to Goedert but they are both good enough to command targets regularly. Week 17 may give us a glimpse of a future without Ertz in Philadelphia.

6.) The Seattle Seahawks Offense

The Seattle Seahawks offense is going to be a little light heading into their week 17 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

• Starting running back, Chris Carson (Hip: Carson has been sent to the injured reserve due to a hip injury. – Updated December 24, 2019)
• Second-string running back, Rashaad Penny (Knee: Penny has been sent to the injured reserve list due to a torn ACL in his left knee. – Updated December 14, 2019)
• Third-string running back, CJ Prosise (Arm: Prosise has been designated for the injured reserve list due to an arm injury. – Updated December 24, 2019)
• Starting left tackle Duane Brown (Knee: Brown sustained a season-ending knee injury. Updated December 22, 2019)

They are down to the two re-tread options in Robert Turbin and yes, Marshawn Lynch. Travis Homer, the former Miami Hurricane running back with a 4.48-second 40-yard dash (83rd percentile) and a 132.2 burst score (94th percentile) is the final piece. Homer is not a big back coming in at 5’10, 201 lbs but he is athletic and it showed the Seahawks coaching staff likes him in space when he was the one called on to replace wide receiver, Tyler Lockett, at kick returner.

Homer’s Value In Dynasty?

Yes, Carson and Penny should be back in 2020. There are no guarantees when coming back from serious leg injuries. The team may finally give up on the perpetually injured, Prosise following a fourth straight season cut short by injury. At season’s end, he will have played in just 25 of a possible 64 games. The additions of Lynch and Turbin are purely to help salvage the run game through a playoff push.

Look for the big fellas to possibly handle the short-yardage work but, Homer should be able to handle a lot of the work between the ’20s and on passing downs. Head coach, Pete Carroll has said that Seattle would lean on Homer. He hauled in 6 of 8 targets for just 26 yards but has the ability to catch passes and may be the diverse satellite back that Prosise was supposed to be. Definitely worth adding to your roster if available.

Wrapping It Up

We have so many other situations and players to keep an eye on in week 17. There are endless rookies and backups getting their first chance at real game-time as well as teams still fighting to make the playoffs. There are endless story-lines playing out but In redraft, this is a weekend to be thought of with disdain. In dynasty though, this is a week to be glued to the TV because you may just see an early look at a potential breakout next season. Thank you for reading my first piece with DLF and follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor) as well as all the other great members of the DLF staff.