Players with a Downward Arrow: Running Back Edition
It’s that time of the year when the season wraps up and everyone revels in their riches or sulks in their losses. The season is done, the holidays are here, and everyone takes some time away from fantasy football to spend with their loved ones.
I think a little bit differently. I think this is the perfect time to invest some energy into your rosters and start making a plan to sell players whose values are sure to drop next year and beyond, never to recover again. The faster you can recognize such players before your opponents, the better off you’ll be in the long run.
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, RB SEA
It pains me a little bit to say it, but what once looked like a great situation in Seattle has now turned into an ugly one. Penny tore his ACL in the worst possible moment for Seattle, as his recovery will roll into the middle of the following season. Carson suffered his second major injury in three years.
With both players recovering from major injuries, I would not be surprised to see the Seahawks draft or sign a running back to the roster to compete as a starter for the 2020 campaign. Carson is on his final year of his rookie deal and Penny will be on his final year when he’s fully recovered in 2021, so are either of them going to be counted on as the lead back for the future? My guess is no, so it’s time to move them while you still can.
James Conner, RB PIT
I love me some James Conner. He is such a great human being who’s overcome a lot of challenges to get to where he is today. However, it’s my job as an analyst to rank objectively, so here I am putting him in my sell high category.
Conner is going into his final season on his rookie deal. He’s been battling injuries his entire career, and I don’t think the Steelers will feel comfortable giving him a long-term contract given his history with getting hurt. I think he’s been successful mostly because he’s played on an offense that lifts him up, not the other way around. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Steelers draft a mid-to-late round back this season, pushing Conner even closer to the exit after the 2020 campaign.
Devin Singletary, RB BUF
I told everyone to get this kid back in April 22nd, prior to the NFL draft, no matter where he ended up. He has amazing lateral quickness, vision and agility, all being major components for a breakout at RB. My one knock on him is his size, and therefore I don’t think he’ll be able to carry the load for his career.
With that said, I think it would be wise to sell him after the season ends in Buffalo after Frank Gore is handed his walking papers making it look like Singletary is the only RB on the team. Truth is, the Bills will want to draft another RB or two to complement Singletary, and when they do, his price will go down. I think he’s an excellent back in a running back by committee (RBBC) approach, but I’m not so sure he can hold up long term.
If you drafted him then you probably acquired him for a mid-second-round pick. I think you could trade him away for a 2020 first and second, perhaps even two late firsts. If you do, you’ll be gaining value in the long term. I love this kid, but I love my fantasy team even more, and I just want to make sure I end up ahead while I still can.
Mark Ingram, RB BAL
This one is pretty obvious though, isn’t it? He’s 30 years old in the last year of his deal. If you are gunning for a championship run in 2020, then you want to hold onto him. If you’re anything less, the time to cash out is now.
Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
He’s in the middle of a giant contract that he signed in 2017, but there is a clause that allows the Falcons to cut him this coming off-season for only a fraction of what they guaranteed him, and I would think that it would be wise to make use of that clause if I was Atlanta. Do yourself a favor and unload him for a late first or two second-rounders if you can before this happens.
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
I think this might be my favorite sell-high candidate on the list, and you can wait to do it. Melvin Gordon will be moving in the off-season, and when he does, it’s going to make Ekeler look like the best RB to buy in fantasy. Ekeler is on the final year of his rookie deal, so we can expect him to sign something major and probably with the Chargers where he’s had a lot of success.
The other piece of the puzzle is that Ekeler is 5’9” and under 200 pounds. I don’t think he’ll be able to carry the load for a full season and will be an RBBC at best. I have a James White ceiling for him, and if he goes to another team in the off-season, he might not even be that high.
I think you might be able to acquire an early-to-mid first-round pick with this kid. He’s going to be a hot commodity this off-season, and with a little skillful negotiating, you could get some late thirds thrown into the deal to give yourself even more chances to improve. This isn’t a requirement if you’re already a championship-caliber team, but if you’re in a rebuild, don’t get cute by holding a valuable asset like Ekeler beyond this season.
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