Week 17 might be the best slate to play DFS. We have some teams who are out of contention and are looking to play some of their younger players. We also have a handful of teams who have their playoff status locked up and they are more than willing to rest their starters to get ready for the postseason.
There’s a lot of ambiguity to sift through this week. Those who have their ears to the ground and know the situations going into each game will have an edge over the field. Contract incentives is another variable that could be at play for some of these players.
Let’s take a look at some bargains on DraftKings.
Daniel Jones, NYG ($6,400)
Jones will be at home this week against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that ranks 18th in the league against the pass allowing 240 points per game. The over/under is set at a modest 45 points and the Eagles are favored to win by four points. Most importantly, the Eagles defense struggles on the road. Their secondary can be gouged by the deep ball.
There’s a lot to like about Jones this week. First off, he’s not going to be benched because the team needs to see what they need in Eli Manning, making him a stress-free option. He has the rushing floor we want, rushing for 20 yards or more in 50 percent of his games. The upside is also there with four touchdowns in four of his 12 games. Last, of all, Jones isn’t afraid to toss up a few YOLO balls deep to his receivers.
I get it, $6,400 isn’t a dirt-cheap bargain but it’s a solid value considering we know he’s not going to get benched early this game. He is playing against a soft defense at home which adds to his potential this week. There are certainly cheaper options on the slate, but they are not as safe as Jones is against the Eagles.
Damien Williams, KC ($4,700)
We are going to see a healthy Williams play at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. The over/under for this game is at 45.5 and the Chiefs are heavy nine-point favorites. The game script should allow him to see some extra touches later in the game. The Chargers also rank 23rd in the league in DVOA against the run.
The Chiefs just sent Spencer Ware to injured reserve. They haven’t been interested in giving Darwin Thompson a heavy workload and LeSean McCoy has had games where he has been a healthy scratch. Even though he hasn’t delivered a solid return on investment when it comes to redraft, he does have seven games where he has seen double digit-touches. The Chiefs tend the lean on him when’s he’s healthy and he is more than ready to go this week against the Chargers.
The Chiefs will earn a first-round bye with a win and a Patriots loss this week, giving them something to play for, allowing us not to worry about whether any of the key starters will be pulled early in the game.
Another reason to invest in Williams is his price. DraftKings listed his salary at $4,700 and he is one of the few running backs that should see a full workload at less than 5k this week. Of course, this means he’s going to be a very chalky option, but it’s going to be very hard to ignore his value giving his matchup, touch-share and overall opportunity.
Steven Sims Jr., WAS ($4,700)
The Washington Redskins will be 10.5-point underdogs when they travel to AT&T Stadium to play the Dallas Cowboys. The game script could definitely be in Sims’ favor if the team is trailing by double digits during the majority of the game. The Redskins don’t need to stay far away from the W column this week, but we all know they don’t mind play spoiler to their division rival either.
Terry McLaurin is dealing with a concussion. He didn’t practice on Thursday which means more than likely he is not going to suit up on game day. Even though he is aiming to hit the 1,000-yard mark on the season, there is no reason for the Redskins to push him on the field when they should be playing for draft position.
Sims leads the team with 28 targets and 263 air yards in the last three weeks. Those opportunities become more apparent if McLaurin is out of the lineup. He’s not a star player who the Redskins will feel compelled to keep off the field because they are out of contention and it’s the last week of the season. His volume won’t increase much because it’s already substantially high, but this should lock him into an easy 25-30 percent target share.
Dallas is looking to hammer the ball with Ezekiel Elliott, slowing down the action and limiting all opportunities for the Redskins offense. However, Sims is going to be a key component of the offense and should see a sizeable workload even in a negative game script.
Dallas Goedert, PHI ($4,900)
Zach Ertz is dealing with a rib injury that will limit his ability to play on Sunday. Goedert is already pushing a near 100 percent snap share on top of an 18 percent target share in the last three weeks. With Ertz not looking like he’ll play, Goedert should see an increase in targets considering there aren’t many other options to cannibalize targets in the passing game.
The Giants defense is 31st in the league in DVOA against the pass. The Eagles should be able to easily throw the ball in this game and Goedert should benefit from a cake matchup. He isn’t the cheapest tight end but his price tag still makes him a value.