Rookie Report Card: Dwayne Haskins and Justice Hill
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2019 potential and long term upside.
The series continues this week as we shine a light on Dwayne Haskins and Justice Hill.
Dwayne Haskins, QB WAS
Week 16 Stats: 12/15 passing, 133 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions
If you asked ten dynasty owners during draft season what their opinion was of Dwayne Haskins and his NFL upside, you’d probably get ten different answers. Many were impressed with his ideal size (6’-3”, 230 pounds), eye-popping arm strength and gunslinger mentality while others couldn’t invest in a one-year college starter who had very little mobility and struggled to make progressions in college.
Without a doubt, Haskins was a lightning rod for criticism from both the NFL draft community and dynasty owners alike. And when he was selected by Washington with the 15th overall pick in the draft, the criticisms from naysayers continued due to the lack of talent offensively and the overall struggles of the organization. Despite those drawbacks, however, Haskins settled in as a mid-first round pick in super-flex and 2QB leagues and a late second-rounder in single quarterback setups.
After arriving in Washington, Haskins struggled throughout much of training camp and lost the starting quarterback competition to Case Keenum – who was highly unimpressive himself in the preseason. After getting spot duty in two games early this year – completing just 12 of 22 passes for 140 yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions – many dynasty owners began to panic about his long-term upside.
Those concerns have subsided recently, however.
Since taking over as Washington’s starter in week nine, Haskins has completed 107 of 181 passes (59.1%) while throwing seven touchdowns and three interceptions. While his yards-per-attempt has been modest (6.8), his decision making has looked better and his accuracy – particularly on intermediate to deep throws – has impressed.
Over the past two weeks against the Eagles and Giants, Haskins has had his two best games (although he had his day cut short in week 16 against New York.) Completing 72% of his passes, averaging 9.2 YPA and throwing four touchdowns without an interception, he showed the ability to push the ball down the field without risking turning it over. Perhaps most importantly, he’s appeared to move through progressions without much hesitation, regularly looking to one side of the field before hitting a receiver on the opposite sideline, which was a major weakness of his coming out of Ohio State according to many draftniks.
While it’s disappointing a high ankle sprain will keep him out of the season finale, dynasty owners should see Haskins’ recent strong play (albeit against poor passing defenses) as a pretty big positive considering the question marks surrounding him during draft season, the lack of talent in Washington and the slow start he had to his rookie season. Although he still has a long way to go before being considered a safe starting option in super-flex leagues, his rocket arm, above-average downfield accuracy and the progress he showed in reading defenses as a rookie should give hope that he could get to that point.
With more talent around him (including on the offensive line which would be a big help) and more experience, Haskins could unlock mid-to-low end QB1 upside. While I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my QB2 in a superflex league I’m trying to contend in going into 2020, he’s an ideal QB3 due to his raw upside.
Justice Hill, RB BAL
Week 16 Stats: Three carries, 19 yards, one touchdown, three receptions,32 receiving yards (four targets)
It was difficult not to like Justice Hill if you watched him rack up 3,844 yards from scrimmage and 31 touchdowns during his three years at Oklahoma State. Known for his quick decision making, electrifying cutbacks and hard running style for a guy his size (5’10”, 197 pounds), he profiled as a lead back in the NFL with the potential to be a full-time player if he could progress as a pass catcher and pass protector.
Hill slowly became one of my favorite running backs in the 2019 class the more I watched him. The change of direction skills and incredible burst that he showed with the Cowboys made him as explosive as any back in the last few years, in my opinion, and his fierce running style – particularly when finishing runs made him even more appealing. When he blazed a 4.4-second 40-yard dash and posted an impressive vertical (40 inches) and broad jump (130 inches), it became easy for me to overlook the questions surrounding his size, decreased college production in 2018 and underdeveloped skill in the passing game.
When Hill landed in Baltimore in the fourth round as the ninth running back off the board, I instantly moved him on my draft board to the fringe of being a first-round rookie pick.
After getting to Baltimore, many Hill supporters expected him to have a roll in the offense as a change-of-pace back behind Mark Ingram but that hasn’t developed. Entering week 17 with just 48 carries for 186 yards and one touchdown to go along with seven receptions for 60 yards, he’s been an afterthought in the Ravens’ league-best rushing attack, playing third fiddle to Ingram and Gus Edwards.
While his 3.9 yards per carry pales in comparison to that of Ingram (5.0) and Edwards (5.2), Hill has looked more explosive than the two veterans at times just hasn’t had many chances to find the open field. However, one such instance came in week 16 when Hill sealed the Ravens’ win against the Browns on an 18-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.
The play showed just how explosive Hill can be as he made a sharp cut behind a block from Nick Boyle and blasted through the running lane. He appeared to be the fastest player on the field, going untouched over the right side for the score.
Although Hill was unable to carve out a regular roll in the offense as a rookie, that could change in week 17 and throughout the postseason due to the injury Ingram suffered on Sunday. If that happens, dynasty owners should get a good look at Hill and his electrifying upside in the coming weeks – even if it comes as the Robin to Edwards’ Batman.
With Ingram having just turned 30 on Saturday, there’s a clear path to playing time for Hill in 2020 if he shows he can handle at least a part-time role over the next month or so. Those of us who feel he has RB1 upside in Baltimore have been waiting for him to get an opportunity to show it. Unfortunately, that opportunity will likely slam the door shut on a buying window that currently sees him being sold for as low as a late second-round rookie pick.
If you’re looking for a cheap, young running back with big upside, you won’t do much better than making an offer for Hill. Just do it quickly because the price will spike on Sunday if it hasn’t already.
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