The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: December

TheFFGhost

Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post, a quarterly column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly.

With the 2019 season drawing to a close and new dynasty champions being crowned worldwide, that means there is a large percentage of owners in those dynasty leagues licking their wounds and who have already begun looking to next season. Those owners are trying to figure out ways to make the new champion’s reign a short one.

Of course, one way to displace the king, or queen, is to acquire the assets needed to compete. Those assets can obviously be big-name players or, with the NFL Draft being the next major event to likely make significant shifts within countless leagues, rookie draft picks. Then again, why chose just one path? We can all trade players and picks!

Let’s see how the value has shifted since we last peeked in at the trade market and since the trade deadline has passed in a large percentage of leagues. Here is an overview of the most, and least, popular assets as collected by the Dynasty Trade Finder:

Getting your JuJu Back… or Losing It

The most popular asset to be moved in the past month has been none other than star Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster just narrowly edged out both Julio Jones and Todd Gurley.

Many of the Smith-Schuster trades appear to be due to his injury in Week 11 in which he suffered a concussion and injured his knee. The knee issue has been the more serious issue and has kept him out of weeks 12 through 15.

A large majority of those teams who traded Smith-Schuster away were teams with playoff hopes that appear to have made the trades they felt were necessary to secure their spot in the playoff while also acquiring players or pieces that could help them in the playoffs and beyond. Over half of the trades that included Smith-Schuster were conducted in the lead up to weeks 12 and 13, the period directly before most leagues fantasy playoffs and, traditionally when leagues will set their trade deadlines, if they have one.

In the short term, those trades appear to have benefited those teams that traded Smith-Schuster away as he has missed the entire fantasy playoffs with the exception of Championship week, or week 16 in the NFL. It remains to be seen if those teams who moved on from Smith-Schuster will have sellers remorse come the off-season, but for those teams who found themselves in a money spot, those trades may have been worth it. Those on the receiving side of any Smith-Schuster likely can not wait to see him in their line up in 2020.

All In With Alvin

December is a particularly unique period for dynasty leagues when it comes to trading. As I mentioned above, some leagues opt to prevent trading once the playoffs begin and other leagues have decided to allow trading all season long. With even a percentage of dynasty leagues limiting trading, we are bound to see a drop in the frequency of trades conducted as a whole and, as such, we very rarely see any positive change in player trade markets to finish the season.

As the fantasy playoffs end and owners begin to pay their dues for the 2020 season, we should start to see player markets grow again early in the new year and peak shortly before the NFL Draft and again before the NFL regular season starts. I mention this because, true to form, there were no players in the past 30 days who saw positive growth in their trade markets month over month. Therefore, we have to look at which player saw the least decline in that market to determine who presented the best value in dynasty owners’ minds heading into the playoffs.

As it turns out, those owners, who spoke with actualized trades, felt Alvin Kamara head the most value with only a 44.8 percent drop in trade frequency. As the Saints continue their pursuit towards several passing and receiving records, some teams might have felt better positioned in the playoffs to cash out some value in Kamara in order to pick up a more utilized running back for the rest of the 2019 season. Those obtaining Kamara likely saw an opportunity to obtain one of the most explosive running backs in today’s game. Whichever side of the fence you find yourself on, it is impossible to deny that Kamara’s trade market appears to have something for everyone.

A Case of the Golladay Blues

While Kamara’s trade market has remained the most stable, on the other end of the spectrum, Kenny Golladay has seen his trade market implode. While he was part of 68 dynasty trades a month ago, in the past 30 days he has only been featured in a paltry 13 trades, less than one dynasty trade every two days, across 4,800 tracked dynasty leagues! Just to we are all on the same page, that is an 80.9 percent decline! I do not remember a time when I’ve seen the trade market for any given player shrink so quickly and dramatically.

That said, I do not believe much of Golladay’s dip in trade activity has to do solely with him. This decline also directly coincides with the injury sustained by Golladay’s quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and his subsequent placement on the Injured Reserve (IR) list on December 17, 2019 due to broken bones in his back and a hip injury. Now, that is an incredibly scary sentence to read no matter if you are a current Golladay owner or a team that was considering making a move. When a player’s quarterback has a broken back, it is pretty safe to assume you are going to see a precipitous decline in said player’s tradability. Most owners will likely take a wait and see approach to the situation, opting to either hold the player if they have him, or to avoid pursuing him if he is not yet on their team, and so is the case with Golladay.

Now with eight straight losses following Stafford’s injury, it is safe to say that those who passed on the opportunity to trade for Golladay are likely counting their lucky stars, and money if they made it to the playoffs. Look to Golladay’s value to stay depressed while we wait for news on the quarterback situation in Detroit, and then returning to normal when there is some clarity on the situation.

IDP Corner Market

Just like the offensive side of the ball, or possibly a bit more extreme in most cases, the number of defensive players traded in December also sees a decline. Owners in IDP leagues will often focus on acquiring offensive players for a playoff run as opposed to shoring up their defense. However, one defensive player has retained his trade market better than any player on either side of the ball: Nick Bosa.

Bosa’s market saw no decrease at all, mirroring the number of trades he was involved in for the month prior to the 30 days examined in this piece. However, when it comes to the sheer number of trades involving any specific IDP player, it is Yannick Ngakoue that holds the crown this month, followed by a three-way tie between the other Bosa brother, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Lavonte David.

Somewhat ironically, while Ngakoue’s trade market was somewhat stable, the steepest decline on the defensive side of the ball went to his running mate Calais Campbell who was not featured in a single trade over the past month after being one of the most traded defensive assets just a month prior to this period. Campbell has remained very productive over the past month so it may have simply been that the asking price was just too much to ask across the dynasty IDP landscape.

Future Considerations

Rookie picks are something akin to United States Treasury bonds in dynasty leagues. They hold their value spectacularly well and tend to see an increased level of interest the closer they get to their expiratory date. Now, just like the other assets we have talked about in this piece, rookie picks also saw a decrease in trade volume due to trade deadlines passing in December across the dynasty format. However, do not for a second take that to mean the value of those picks declined. If anything, the volume of trades involving rookie picks increased in relation to the leagues still open for trading.

While the player assets on both sides of the ball saw an average dip of 76.6 percent, collectively future draft picks dipped by only 75.8 percent. The difference is marginal to be sure but nonetheless it does demonstrate that across thousands of trades, the value of draft picks holds strong. The pick that saw the least drop in volume over the past 30 days were 2021 third-round picks, followed by a tie between 2020 and 2021 fourth-round picks. The steepest decline in volume of trades involving future draft picks involved 2021 fifth-round picks followed by another tie between 2020 second and fifth-round picks.

Now that the 2019 dynasty season is all but complete, look for the trade volume to increase throughout 2020 with January likely being similar in volume before rocketing up in February and March. By the time we reconvene in this column at the end of March we should have a much better picture into how the 2020 rookie class is shaping up in addition to free agency opening on March 18, 2020. Free agency rumors will dictate many trades prior to that date though so be on the lookout for the March 2020 edition of this column as we will have a whole lot to discuss! Good luck until next time!

As of this edition of the series, the Dynasty Trade Finder has recorded 268,492 trades that have occurred over 4,801 dynasty leagues, making it the premier trade database in the dynasty fantasy football market. Make sure you check it out today by clicking here.