Sunday Six Pack: Week 16

The countdown to the end is just a countdown to beginning again for dynasty owners. As the season winds down, trades are already being contemplated and rookie draft picks are being counted as their own type of currency. Week 15 made some noise, starting with Lamar Jackson and ending with Drew Brees. Somewhere in the middle of that is Breshad Perriman and his three touchdowns gracing benches all over the fantasy football world.

As we head into week 16, it is time to sit down, crack open another six-pack of questions and prepare for the crowning of yet another champion among leagues.

1.) Is Juju. Smith-Schuster a “buy-low” candidate?

There were concerns about Juju Smith-Schuster transitioning into the alpha receiver in the absence of Antonio Brown. As the 2019 season comes to a close, sadly we still do not have a satisfactory answer for that query. Between a carousel of quarterbacks and injuries of his own, we have 10 games of less-than-stellar performance to try and formulate an opinion from. Mason Rudolph was almost as bad at helping his receivers as he is at fighting. Through those ten games, Smith-Schuster eclipsed 100-yards receiving only one time and managed only three scores. Quite honestly, the offense struggled in multiple facets with all the key injuries. Ben Roethlisberger should return next season, which bodes well for Smith-Schuster and the Steelers offense. If some managers are panicking, it is well worth testing the trade waters and trying to land Smith-Schuster for a discount. With Big Ben expected to be back under center, he maintains top-12 receiver appeal.

2.) Is A.J. Brown a reliable WR2 for next season?

The 2019 rookie class of wide receivers is approaching the success of the 2014 class. D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and A.J. Brown all have over 800 receiving yards at this point. Both McLaurin and Brown seem to be the preferred receivers in their respective offenses and all four could eclipse the 1,000-yard mark before the season closes. Brown has been nothing short of spectacular in the last four weeks. In fact, in that span, he is the WR2 in PPR formats. His 447 yards lead all receivers and his four touchdowns are tied for first among those same peers.

To begin the season, Brown’s volume was a bit erratic. He averaged 3.83 targets per game through the first six weeks, otherwise known as the “Dark Marcus Mariota Weeks.” Once Ryan Tannehill assumed starting duties, things changed in Brown’s favor. Since then, he has averaged 6.38 targets per game. Tannehill and Brown have been building chemistry together and it’s blooms have begun to blossom on the stat sheet. It is difficult to write-in A.J. Brown as week-to-week WR2 for the 2020 season, but he should be treated and drafted, as a top-30 receiver in start-ups.

3.) Did Leonard. Fournette shed the injury-prone tag?

Following his 1,040 rushing-yard and nine touchdown rookie season, Leonard Fournette was drafted as a top-12 option in start-ups and redraft leagues for the 2018 season. His sophomore effort was an injury-ridden disappointment. He finished the 2018 season with 439 rushing yards and five (surprising) scores.

Owners who held onto him for 2019 must be pleased. He has been healthy, his volume has been good, and he has been the beneficiary of an increase in targets out of the backfield. Fournette’s 94 targets rank second among the position. Through week 15, Leonard Fournette has more targets than Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs. Most importantly, Fournette has not missed a stretch of games (knocking on wood) this season. Between a steady workload of rush attempts and the uptick in targets, he is the RB7 on the season. That’s right folks, despite only crossing the chalk three times so far, Fournette is ranked seventh. A few more touchdowns and he is a top-five back.

Fournette is one of the few running backs who remains a true, three-down workhorse. The volume has always been present. One of the things keeping his value low has been the injuries, most of which sideline him for more than one game. Peel the injury-prone sticker off of Fournette and treat him like the high-volume commodity that is proving to be.

4.) Is the Dak Prescott “buy” window closed?

Dak Prescott is someone I wrote about before the season began as a bargain-priced option for redraft leagues. He proved this season that he can, indeed, hang with the big boys. He is currently the QB3 on the year and his 4,334 passing yards are second overall. The addition of Amari Cooper and the emergence of Michael Gallup have helped propel him into being a reliable, every week starter.

The opportunity to acquire him at a reasonable cost is well on the way to closing. So the real question becomes, is he still worth the cost of acquisition?

Roster construction certainly comes in to play in answering this question as does league format. Once upon a time, Prescott was viewed as a nice, safe second quarterback for superflex leagues. This season, he became an every-week starter and a powerhouse combo if paired with one of the other top name signal-callers. All Prescott has done is finish within the top-12 at the position through his young career. If the owner who has him is willing to deal, he is worth moving some pieces to acquire.

5.) Is Kenyan Drake the long-term starter in Arizona?

Kenyan Drake owners are experiencing something new over the last several weeks. That bench spot had been covered with a thin layer of disappointment dust, which is similar to fairy dust but far less magical, for the better part of several seasons. As a Dolphin, he only seemed to blow up when nestled back on the bench. Dust him off, put him in as a starter and watch him rumble a five-carry, 19-yard game. Rinse. Repeat.

When the Cardinals acquired the versatile running back, owners felt something they have not felt in quite some time – hope.

Drake has fit in this offense and somehow has been getting the kind of usage David Johnson owners were expecting. Since his first start as a Cardinal in week nine, Drake is the RB5 in PPR scoring – ahead of Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette during that span. The difference has been being on a team that wants to utilize his array of talent. Moving forward, Drake should remain an integral part of this offense.

The big question owners are facing is whether to hold him and ride the newfound success or trade him away while his value is still high. For those who have held onto him the duration of his career, he is a recommended hold. This is, after all, the kind of production that owners were hoping for when they drafted him.

6.) Who is Breshad Perriman and should we care?

Before he was the DFS lineup breaker of week 15, Breshad Perriman was simply thought of a first-round bust from the 2016 draft.

Sometimes, all it takes is some opportunity for a player to rise from the ashes of near-irrelevancy and make some noise in fantasy football. In this case, it has taken multiple injuries for Perriman to saunter into the spotlight. The Buccaneers seemed to have signed an agreement that during the month of December they shall have at least one hamstring injury per-game or Captain Fear loses his bandanna. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller all have been downed with hamstring injuries in the last few weeks.

Over the last three weeks, Perriman has accumulated 270 receiving yards and four touchdowns. With Jameis Winston at the helm, we all know the volume will be there. For at least the remainder of the season, Perriman is a thing. When trying to project forward, it is best to thoroughly examine the past. To date, Perriman has never finished with more than 499 receiving yards in a season. ( In all fairness, he still has next week to top that.) His five touchdowns this season matches his combined career total and his 100-yard performance yesterday is yet another strong indicator of his resurgence.

With a healthy and talented receiving corps around him, Perriman will most likely slide back into obscurity if he stays in Tampa Bay. Dynasty managers should not break the bank to acquire him at current, inflated value. Redraft players, however, should ride this wave one more week. His free agent landing spot could be interesting, though.