Picks of the Decade: Rookie 1.11
In just days, the decade has come to an end. In the world of dynasty fantasy football, the past ten years have brought numerous changes to our hobby, but one thing has remained the same. Dynasty rookie picks can be just as frustrating as they can be rewarding. Nearly every early pick alters a dynasty team, sometimes putting a team over the top on their quest for a title, while other times setting a team back years after a wasted pick.
The end of every year brings an endless supply of “best of” lists and that is even more true when a decade concludes. While you might not care about the top songs or movies of the past ten years, this list is for you!
I’ve been studying the past ten years of dynasty rookie drafts, with a focus on the first round. I’ve ranked players, classified by the spot they were drafted, comparing all 1.01s, 1.02s and so on. I’ve taken into account both production and value in an effort to find the best (and worst) rookie picks of the past ten years.
ADP Notes:
- The rookie ADP comes from a series of active, competitive long-standing dynasty leagues.
- Our DLF dynasty ADP dates back to 2013, so the “ADP High” may not accurately represent players from early in the decade.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the countdown.
The first part in this series is found at the following link: 1.12.
Here are the decade’s 1.11 rookie picks, ranked from worst to first.
10. Marcus Lattimore, RB
Drafted: 2013
Years in League: 0
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 76, March 2014
One of the most promising running back prospects in years, Lattimore suffered a horrific knee injury in college, and many thought his career would end there. The 49ers shocked everyone, including Lattimore himself by selecting the back in the fourth round in 2013. Dynasty players wanted to believe Lattimore to his pre-injury form and took a shot on him late in round one. That proved to be a mistake. Lattimore was finally able to practice but never returned to full health and retired midway through the 2014 season.
9. CJ Prosise, RB
Drafted: 2016
Years in League: 4
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 62, February 2017
Like many disappointing players on these lists, the path for Prosise was derailed by injuries. A big back with impressive speed, Prosise was a former receiver in college who had serious PPR upside after being drafted by the Seahawks in the third round. Seattle had both Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael on their roster at the time, but neither had established themselves as the workhorse. During his rookie year alone, Prosise missed time with injuries to his hip, hamstring, wrist and hand but overcame them all to gain the starting role by Thanksgiving. Then he injured his shoulder, ending his season. Despite the health concerns, Prosise was a trendy dynasty pick the following off-season, ascending to a sixth-round pick. The story always ends with injuries when it comes to Prosise, who missed at least ten games each season, entering this year.
8. Marqise Lee, WR
Drafted: 2014
Years in League: 5
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 51, February 2014
In an effort to revamp their receiver corps, the Jaguars added a trio of wideouts in the 2014 NFL Draft, the first being second-rounder Lee, a star from USC. After a huge sophomore season, Lee struggled with an injury which was a sign of things to come. Lee dealt with multiple injuries and was easily outplayed by fellow rookies Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in his debut season. More injuries and Lee was even further buried in his second season. The talented Lee did produce back to back WR41 seasons in 2016 and 2017 before missing the entire 2018 season with a torn ACL. That was Robinson’s first year out of Jacksonville and was viewed as a potential breakout opportunity for Lee. Doing just enough in his career to stay on dynasty rosters, Lee has turned into a roster clogger.
7. Shane Vereen, RB
Drafted: 2011
Years in League: 7
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 1
Dynasty ADP High: 31, January 2014
The Patriots always seem to have a guy like this. Before James White, it was Vereen, who was a better receiver than he was a runner, offering exciting PPR scoring potential. Vereen was used sparingly in his first two seasons before the Pats turned to him as a significant part of the offense in 2013. Vereen turned in three straight years as the RB36 or better, which included a season with the Giants, where he signed as a free agent in 2015. An injury cut short his 2016 season and he was simply a role player in 2017. The Saints took a shot on him in 2018 but he suffered another injury and that proved to be the end of his career. The hype as the pass-catching back on the league’s best team pushed Vereen all the way to the third round of dynasty drafts.
6. Jermaine Gresham, TE
Drafted: 2010
Years in League: 9
Top 12 FF Seasons: 1
Top 24 Seasons: 5
Dynasty ADP High: 90, April 2013
Drafted in the first round by the Bengals, Gresham immediately established himself as one of the top dynasty tight ends in the game, posting three straight seasons as the TE16 or better. After the 2013 season that saw Gresham regress, the Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert to serve as competition at tight end. Gresham eventually signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2015 season and he stayed with Arizona until he was released last off-season. Gresham was very reliable throughout his career, playing at least 13 games in every season, but he never reached the heights that come with being a round one skill position player.
5. Deebo Samuel, WR
Drafted: 2019
Years in League: 1
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 71, December 2019
The 49ers had to invest in the receiver position after last year’s disaster and they spent their early-second round pick on South Carolina’s Samuel, the do-it-all wideout with an ugly injury history. Early in the season, Samuel looked like he could quickly become the team’s WR1, but a mid-season trade for veteran Emmanuel Sanders changed that. Samuel showed his upside with a two-week run in weeks ten and 11, when he totaled 16 receptions for 246 yards. Samuel is the WR17 since that week ten outburst.
4. Tevin Coleman, RB
Drafted: 2015
Years in League: 5
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 3
Dynasty ADP High: 50, November 2018
After using a third-round pick on Coleman in 2015, the Falcons backfield was expected to be a full committee, along with Devonta Freeman. Instead, Freeman turned in an overall RB1 season in 2015, limiting Coleman’s opportunity as a rookie. The eventual committee, along with some Freeman injuries, did lead to a larger role for Coleman, who turned in three consecutive seasons as a fantasy RB2 for Atlanta. Prior to this season, Coleman followed his former coach Kyle Shanahan to San Francisco. Dynasty players likewise chased Coleman with the allure of an every-down role but it hasn’t materialized as Coleman has shared the backfield with others and recently lost his job to journeyman Raheem Mostert.
3. Calvin Ridley, WR
Drafted: 2018
Years in League: 2
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 2
Dynasty ADP High: 37, November 2019
Dinged by dynasty players, including myself, for being an older prospect, Ridley has done nothing but produce in his two seasons with the Falcons. Atlanta’s first-round choice in 2018, Ridley boosted his value with ten touchdowns on 64 catches as a rookie. While most spent the following off-season devaluing Ridley due to the expected regression, the Alabama product nearly repeated his performance this season, catching seven scores in 63 receptions before an injury ended his year. Ridley is not far from matching his teammate Julio Jones’ dynasty value.
2. Alshon Jeffery, WR
Drafted: 2012
Years in League: 8
Top 12 FF Seasons: 2
Top 24 Seasons: 3
Dynasty ADP High: 9, May 2014
The second-round pick of the Bears in 2012, Jeffery suffered through a frustrating rookie season, missing multiple games and catching just 24 passes. He proved to be a wise buy low after that season as he broke out in his second season, posting the best year of his career for a WR8 finish. He repeated that in 2014 as the WR10 overall before injuries again cut short his 2015 campaign. The injury, along with a suspension the following season, destroyed his free-agent value that off-season before he settled for a one-year “prove it” deal with the Eagles prior to the 2017 season. While he didn’t bounce all the way back, he did serve as the Eagles WR1, finishing as the WR21 for the year and playing all 16 games. This year has again been cut short with injuries but if you spent your late first-rounder on Jeffery eight years ago, I am confident you’ve been happy with the results.
1. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Drafted: 2017
Years in League: 3
Top 12 FF Seasons: 1
Top 24 Seasons: 2
Dynasty ADP High: 7, September 2019
After an elite freshman season, there were some concerns that Smith-Schuster never improved during his college career. That was one of the reasons that pushed him to the second round, where the Steelers nabbed him, pairing him with elite receiver Antonio Brown. That duo proved to be elite as Smith-Schuster heated up as his rookie season went along, finishing as the WR20 for the year. He improved on that during his second year, posting the WR8 overall season. His young age and high-level production, combined with the departure of Brown last off-season, pushed Smith-Schuster way up the ranks as some considered him the top receiver in dynasty leagues. Everything went wrong for the Steelers 2019 season, including an injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. We probably won’t know if Big Ben’s absence was the main reason Smith-Schuster struggled until the 2020 season begins, but regardless, the receiver’s value has taken a major hit. Once considered an option for the top overall pick in dynasty startups, Smith-Schuster will now likely fall to the second round this coming off-season. If that’s the case, he’ll be a screaming value.
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