Picks of the Decade: Rookie 1.12
In just days, the decade has come to an end. In the world of dynasty fantasy football, the past ten years have brought numerous changes to our hobby, but one thing has remained the same: dynasty rookie picks can be just as frustrating as they can be rewarding. Nearly every early pick alters a dynasty team, sometimes putting a team over the top on their quest for a title, while other times setting a team back years after a wasted pick.
The end of every year brings an endless supply of “best of” lists and that is even more true when a decade concludes. While you might not care about the top songs or movies of the past ten years, this list is for you!
I’ve been studying the past ten years of dynasty rookie drafts, with a focus on the first round. I’ve ranked players, classified by the spot they were drafted, comparing all 1.01s, 1.02s and so on. I’ve taken into account both production and value in an effort to find the best (and worst) rookie picks of the past ten years.
ADP Notes:
- The rookie ADP comes from a series of active, competitive long-standing dynasty leagues.
- Our DLF dynasty ADP dates back to 2013, so the “ADP High” may not accurately represent players from early in the decade.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the countdown. Here are the decade’s 1.12 rookie picks, ranked from worst to first.
10. Johnathan Franklin, RB
Drafted: 2013
Years in League: 1
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 91, April 2013
The Packers drafted Franklin in the fourth-round in 2013 but his career was cut short after suffering a neck injury just a few games into his rookie season. Franklin was a pre-draft favorite in dynasty circles but fell to the end of the first round after the Packers, who had selected Eddie Lacy earlier in the same draft, scooped him up.
9. Delone Carter, RB
Drafted: 2011
Years in League: 3
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 238, January 2013
Drafted by the Colts in the fourth round, Carter was initially viewed as a backup plan to then starter Joseph Addai who could also serve as the short yardage back. Carter drew some starts during his rookie season but then lost the role as he dealt with a fumbling issue. By the beginning of his second season, Carter barely cracked the 53-man roster. After dealing with multiple injuries, along with an off-field issue, the Colts traded Carter to the Ravens, who waived him a week later.
8. Leonte Carroo, WR
Drafted: 2016
Years in League: 3
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 70, April 2016
When NFL trade up for players, it is typically a good sign. The Dolphins did just that in 2016 to secure the rights to Carroo in the third round. It made sense too. He was versatile, experienced, productive and had grabbed even more attention after a strong Combine performance. Playing for Adam Gase in Miami, Carroo had a wasted rookie season. His second year wasn’t much better and Carroo was waived prior to the 2018 season. Last summer, Carroo was suspended for an unknown reason but has yet to catch on to another team. Since we know more about Gase as a coach, it would be exciting for Carroo to get a second chance with another team, but that seems unlikely.
7. Cody Latimer, WR
Drafted: 2014
Years in League: 6
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 63, April 2015
Coming out of Indiana in the loaded class of 2014, Latimer was a post-season riser, going from virtually unknown to drawing heavy hype. The Broncos traded up to select Latimer late in round two and he was immediately viewed as the replacement for Eric Decker. That didn’t pan out as Latimer spent most of his rookie season on the sidelines as a healthy scratch, and then suffered a pair of late-season injuries. Injuries and a lack of production filled Latimer’s time in Denver, along with a couple of off-field issues that never helped his value. He landed with the Giants prior to last season but dealt with more injuries. Even with the Giants thin receiver depth chart earlier this season, Latimer found no room to produce. He’s been a total bust but has found ways to hang around the league.
6. Phillip Dorsett, WR
Drafted: 2015
Years in League: 5
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 0
Dynasty ADP High: 61, September 2015
After blazing the 2015 NFL Combine, former Miami receiver Dorsett was a surprise first-round pick of the Colts and that draft capital moved him from trendy sleeper to dynasty top-12 pick. Comically, this pick actually caused suggestions that TY Hilton’s time with the team could be nearing an end. Consistently praised for his speed, Dorsett dealt with multiple injuries during his rookie season and that continued in the following seasons. Dorsett remains quite notable for the Colts since they traded him to the Patriots prior to the 2017 season for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who ultimately started the entire 2017 season and then took over the job when Andrew Luck surprisingly retired prior to this season. Dorsett has fared much better for the Patriots, turning in multiple useful games, but still failing to demonstrate consistency.
5. Ronnie Hillman, RB
Drafted: 2012
Years in League: 5
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 1
Dynasty ADP High: 86, November 2014
The Denver Broncos were long the gold standard when it came to running back production, finding it with virtually every player they trotted out. In 2012, they spent a day two pick on Hillman, who joined a crowded backfield with Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. Eventually, CJ Anderson took over as starter, leapfrogging Hillman. The Broncos added more competition the next year. Hillman finally gained a significant role in the offense in his fourth season, finishing as a low-end RB2. Hillman was a free agent following that season but reupped with Denver before being cut prior to the 2016 season. He has since had stints with the Cowboys, Chargers and Vikings, but no real production.
4. Brandon LaFell, WR
Drafted: 2010
Years in League: 9
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 1
Dynasty ADP High: 101, August 2015
The first player drafted as the 1.12 pick of the decade was LaFell, the big-bodied target from LSU, a third rounder for Carolina. LaFell has a similar story to Dorsett. After showing just enough to hang around for the Panthers but failing to ever break through as a strong fantasy asset, LaFell signed with the Patriots in the off-season entering the 2014 season. That would prove to be his best season. After his time in New England, LaFell had stints with Cincinnati and Oakland before an Achilles injury ended his 2018 season, and evidently, his career.
3. David Njoku, TE
Drafted: 2017
Years in League: 3
Top 12 FF Seasons: 1
Top 24 Seasons: 2
Dynasty ADP High: 61, December 2018
The Browns traded back into the late first round to select Njoku, the talented tight end from the U in 2017. Njoku was good, not great, as a rookie, playing a part-time role. He did show enough promise to make dynasty players invest heavily into him entering his second season and the Browns addition of first-overall pick Baker Mayfield was expected to help Njoku and all pass catchers. Njoku’s second season was solid and the hype continued to build as he was often valued as a top-five dynasty tight end. This season was marred by injury as Njoku suffered a broken wrist and a brutal concussion on the same play in week two. He’ll enter this off-season still carrying high expectations from dynasty players but starting to lose some of the shine.
2. Kyler Murray, QB
Drafted: 2019
Years in League: 1
Top 12 FF Seasons: 1
Top 24 Seasons: 1
Dynasty ADP High: 64, December 2019
Yes, it has only been one year in the league and no, this lofty ranking is not an overreaction or a case of recency bias. The reality is that Murray entered the league with an overwhelming amount of hype, which is evident by his mere presence in the first round of rookie drafts. Only two players on this list have produced a top-12 season at their respective positions and Murray did so in his first year. On an offense filled with young playmakers, and an expectation that others will be added, Murray’s ceiling remains massive.
1. Courtland Sutton, WR
Drafted: 2018
Years in League: 2
Top 12 FF Seasons: 0
Top 24 Seasons: 1
Dynasty ADP High: 25, December 2019
With star receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both over age 30, the Broncos used the 2018 NFL Draft to add some youth at the position, selecting Sutton early in the second round. Sutton did everything well in college and was viewed as a future WR1 for his team. Sutton earned a role in the offense from day one but failed to separate himself as a rookie. Even after Thomas was traded and Sanders injured, Sutton was not overly impressive. That has changed this season as Sutton enjoyed a breakout year. He’s already over 1,000 yards despite poor quarterback play for much of the season. Sutton will be an off-season riser and could climb into the second round of dynasty startup drafts if he ends the year on a high note.
In the next edition, we’ll rank the ten players drafted at 1.11 this decade.
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