Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week 14
Welcome back to our weekly target share article where we look for patterns and trends in usage from a dynasty perspective. It’s week 15 which means there is a lot less road ahead. Trends and patterns in usage are either immediately relevant or they are not. There is no more “wait and see” for anyone still in the championship.
As such, I thought I’d focus on two start/sit decisions I’ve been getting asked about the most this week.
Patrick Laird, RB MIA
We should keep in mind that at best, he is maybe the lead back in a committee on a poor team. There shouldn’t be many scoring opportunities for any running back in Miami to close out the season. That’s a limiting factor.
However, we also know that snap percentage is a good predictor of running aback volume and therefore fantasy points. The recent trend has definitely been in Laird’s favor. It’s also true that the Dolphins have seen numerous players rise in snap share only to fail to produce or fall to trade and injury. Having said that, his snap count and 8% target share (double-digit target share three times in the last five weeks) does give us reason to expect he has upside and is startable in fantasy.
I currently have him ranked as RB28 in my projections ahead of low-upside players like Adrian Peterson and those with more usage concerns like DeAndre Washington and Sony Michel. I still have him below somewhat disappointing players on slightly better teams with similar or better volume like David Montgomery.
Justin Watson and Breshad Perriman, WRs, RB
Another situation I’ve been asked about a lot this week is whether Perriman or Watson should or could start for us in the playoffs. Upfront let’s admit that if this is the decision you have, then you are at a disadvantage going into week 15. At best, both players are top-50 options at the wide receiver position. Neither should be considered must-starts nor close to it.
However, things happen, and sometimes you need to play for upside. So, who has more of it?
I am on a bit of an island this week as I have Watson over Perriman. It’s not just because I’ve been high on Watson’s profile since he entered the 2018 draft either. This is a start-sit decision and that shouldn’t factor in – in the same way that post-year-three Perriman is very unlikely to ever break out into the top 24 at the position but he could still have a game. In fact, he’s had several. But, while much has been made of the fact that Perriman has had more snaps than Watson this season, it’s not being pointed out that Watson has only recently started to earn his way onto the team. Or that snaps, in themselves, are worse predictors of future opportunity or points at the wide receiver position.
In essence, snaps don’t matter for wide receivers. They just don’t. Targets do.
Watson has already out-targeted Perriman twice in the last three weeks since he started to earn his way onto the team. And in that time, he has had three red-zone targets (7.9% of his team’s total targets) whereas Perriman has had two while playing his role longer.
Perriman has done very well for himself and rightfully earned a role, but I think we have seen the extent of the role he is able to earn. As such, while he could be the one to catch a long-distance touchdown (again), I think the volume is more likely to keep leaning in Watson’s favor. With the loss of Mike Evans for the season, there is more room for Watson to keep earning a target increase behind Chris Godwin.
So, if I have to play one of them, I’m leaning towards Watson.
Watson has a 15% target share over the last three weeks and that puts him close to the top 50 given Tampa Bay’s volume. I have him as the 47th-ranked player at the position this week, ahead of other players with a similar role behind a number one player on offenses with less innate volume like James Washington, and Randall Cobb.
That’s all for this week. You can find all of the target data I’ve collected from 4for4.com as well as the team against stats I’ve been calculating for the year at the following link.
Good luck this week,
Peter Howard.
@Pahowdy.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
