DraftKings Bargains: Week 15

Bruce Matson Posted On December 14, 2019

We are hitting the home stretch of the regular season. For many, DFS is the only way to play fantasy football because the majority of fantasy players are out of the playoff hunt. If you are one of those unfortunate people don’t worry, I found some underpriced players on DraftKings to help you get through this tough stretch of the season.

Let’s take a look at the DraftKings bargains that are at our disposal for week 15.

QUARTERBACK

David Blough, DET ($5,300)

After a horrible performance where he threw for just 205 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, Blough will be trying to make things right at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He might not be the most lucrative quarterback in the league, but his $5,300 salary makes him an interesting option. The over/under for this game is set at 47.5 points and the Buccaneers are pegged as 3.5-point favorites. Tampa is strolling into Detroit with a pass funnel defense that currently ranks first in the league when it comes to defending the run but is getting chewed up through the air, ranking 31st in the league defending the pass, allowing 278.85 passing yards per game. Needless to say, we are paying for Blough’s favorable matchup.

Blough is my favorite “bad” quarterback on the slate. Per Pro Football Focus, he had a 75 percent adjusted completion rate while being under pressure on 24.4 percent of his dropbacks against the Vikings last week. He’s not afraid to take risks and funnel the ball to his top receivers. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones saw a combined 39.47 percent target share in week 14. With a game script that calls for him to increase the passing volume against a softer defense, Blough will some extra opportunities to connect with his wide receivers.

Since he wasn’t productive last week his ownership rate should be considerably low, making him a contrarian option in GPP formats. Don’t smash the lock button on him. There is still a good chance that he could fall on his face and not be productive enough to help get you in the green. Since he’s one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks listed, we don’t need him to provide a QB1 performance. We just need him not to nosedive and produce at least QB2 level results. His value is stemmed from his cheap entry cost. He is going to allow you to pay up for higher-priced players at other positions. Blough might be the bridge that allows you to get a player like Christian McCaffrey into your lineup.

Other options: Kyle Allen $5,400, Gardner Minshew $5,500, Kyler Murray $5,600

RUNNING BACK

Chris Carson, SEA ($7,500)

Usually, I try to suggest a running back somewhere between the four to six thousand-dollar range that might get the chance to exceed their expectations. Sometimes we get a free square listed in the three-thousand-dollar range but those are few and far between. Carson’s entry cost is a little higher but he is valued at a bargain due to his expected workload with Rashaad Penny out of the lineup. He will now be the team’s feature back and will see the majority of the carries. Typically, a running back with his touch volume would be priced a lot higher but we are getting him at a slight value this week.

The Carolina Panthers are allowing the 29th-worst 139.15 rushing yards per game. Seattle’s mission is to slow things down and run the ball. With the backfield all to himself which includes CJ Prosise siphoning some work as a change of pace back, we should see Carson easily achieve RB1 status this week. It would take an injury or something unforeseen with the game script for him not to be productive.

Vegas has the over/under set at 48 with the Seahawks slated as six-point favorites. Although the spread is not overwhelming, it still lends the notion that Seattle is heavily favorited to win this game by a scalable margin. The Seahawks are known for sitting on leads. Per Pro Football Outsiders, they are running 31.24 seconds between plays when they have a lead of seven points or more. Of course, they ramp things up when they are behind, averaging 25.36 seconds per play when they are trailing by seven points or more.

We also need to look at the motives for these teams. At 5-8 with other teams in the conference with ten or more wins and somebody in the NFC East being allowed to make the playoffs, it’s an easy assessment that the Panthers won’t be participating in postseason play. They don’t need to push the score or their starters which could allow them to play a little more vanilla than usual. Seattle is in the thick of the playoff hunt and they want to put the pedal to the metal and get through this game.

In his last three games, Carson ranks third on the team with ten targets, equating to an 11 percent target share. His usage in the passing game elevates his floor and makes him a safer option in fantasy. This makes him usable in both cash and GPP formats. Carolina’s soft run defense combined with his increased workload will increase his ownership rate. With that being said, I recommend rostering a few contrarian high volatile plays in other parts of your lineup if you are looking to play him in any GPP tournaments.

Other options: Patrick Laird $4,500, Sony Michel $5,100, Kareem Hunt $6,300

WIDE RECEIVER

Isaiah Ford, MIA ($3,700)

The Dolphins called Isaiah Ford out of the bullpen last week after DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson exited the game. He did his best Mariano Rivera impression, catching six of his nine targets for 92 yards. With the Dolphins receiving corps banged up, he could be in line to see a sizeable workload against the New York Giants who have one of the softest secondaries in the league. Parker has been practicing but his status is still up in the air. This could be a good time for the Dolphins to see what they have in Ford before they finalize their 2019 campaign.

If you don’t remember, Ford was a highly productive wide receiver from Virginia Tech, catching 210 passes for 2,967 yards and 24 touchdowns during his three-year collegiate career. His draft stock plummeted when he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 194-pounds. Although he’s a suboptimal athlete, he could still churn out enough production in a one-week-spot to be fantasy relevant if he receives a large enough target volume.

I wouldn’t consider him a free square just yet. There’s still a chance that he could share the field with Parker and company. His price point makes him an intriguing option for large tournament formats. The salary relief alone provides value, because the money saved by rostering him will allow you to jam in other high-priced options into your lineup. He will be a cash-play if the starters are out on Sunday, because he will provide added room in your bankroll on top of his increased workload.

Other options: Justin Watson $3,700, Darius Slayton $4,700, Brandin Cooks 4,500

TIGHT END

Ian Thomas, CAR ($3,100)

I have to go back to the well here. Until DraftKings appropriately price Thomas, I’m going to continue to keep adding him heavily into lineups. I’m always looking for tight ends in the $3K range anyway and with him priced at just $3,100, I have to press the lock button and hold it down. Variance creates risk and there’s a lot of variance from week to week at the tight end position and if I can get a player like Thomas who is receiving a large portion of his team’s targets at a discount then I’m going to jam into the majority of my lineups.

He is playing in a favorable matchup against the Seattle Seahawks who gives up 24.99 percent of their receiving yards allowed to tight ends and their 918 receiving yards allowed to tight ends is the second-most in the league. Look for Thomas to be a key contributor in the passing game on Sunday.

I don’t care about his high ownership rate. I’m still adding him to my GPP lineups. Although he will be in 25 percent or more of my lineups, I will also pivot away from him to combat variance just in case he bottoms out. By not being overexposed to him, my bankroll for the week is less likely to plunge if he has a bad game.

Other options: Cameron Brate $3,400, OJ Howard $3,500, Mike Gesicki $4,000

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.