Twitter Observations: Week 13

Michael Moore

At long last (for most), we’ve reached the end of the regular season. For those who made the playoffs, next year can wait as you’re hoping and praying your players show up this week. For those who missed the playoffs, it’s time to evaluate what you have and what you don’t.

For our week 13 observations, we’ll look at running back-only tweets that should get you thinking about next year.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Of Guice and Men

Despite the humorous fact that Derrius Guice is apparently tweeting to himself, he DID have a day, totaling nearly 130 yards on the ground and scoring twice. It was a nice reminder of what could have been when Guice was first drafted a year and a half ago. Drafted behind only Saquon Barkley in most rookie drafts, Guice has barely been on the field due to multiple injuries. He missed all of his rookie season in 2018 and most of this season until finally coming back in week 10. Washington has, rightly, eased him into the offense but if week 13 is any indication, it’ll be worth it.

Dynasty Impact: It’s great to see Guice out there as he was (is?) a truly exciting prospect. If it weren’t for Barkley, he would have been the top rookie in most rookie drafts last year. Surprisingly, his ADP this summer and fall have been unaffected by his various ailments, checking in as the 22nd RB taken in dynasty startups according to our ADP tool. Trying to acquire him in the off-season may be tricky though. He was definitely drafted as an RB1 and some may even continue to think that. But if you can acquire him for his actual dynasty value, as an RB2, then I’d be all over it. It’s much less risky to trade the assets it would need for an RB2 who has upside as opposed to the assets for an RB1 who carries inherent risks.

Auto Raider

While this specific tweet could be interpreted as another example of why running backs don’t matter in real life, it’s also indicative of how good Josh Jacobs is. Despite the Oakland offense checking in at the lower third of the league in scoring, Jacobs is tenth among running backs in fantasy points. That can be attributed to both his volume – Jacobs is sixth in the league with 218 carries – and his skill, averaging nearly five yards per carry as an example. He’s also eclipsed 1,000 yards already through only 12 games – not bad for a player who topped out at 120 carries and 640 rushing yards in his last college season.

Dynasty Impact: If anything, this season showed Jacobs to be both quarterback and coaching-proof. It’s extremely possible the Raiders make a change at quarterback or offensive coordinator or both this off-season but neither should affect Jacobs. Whether the Raiders do a lot or little by way of changes, Jacobs should still be considered an RB1 next year. He’s already there in startup ADP and is the youngest back by a good margin. In fact, the only other back in the top ten who’s within a year of Jacobs is Saquon Barkley. The age and situation he’s in make him a target for rebuilding and contending dynasty teams.

All Quiet on Kareem Hunt

Kudos to those who had the foresight, roster space or both to keep Kareem Hunt on your dynasty team this season. No one knew what would happen to Hunt after his eight-game suspension which made assessing his dynasty value tough. Adding to that conundrum was his eventual landing spot after being cut by Kansas City. The Browns weren’t seen as an ideal landing spot as they just drafted Nick Chubb in the second round last year. But they have made it work as both Hunt and Chubb are top-ten fantasy backs since week ten when Hunt returned. Chubb is clearly seeing more rush attempts between the two but Hunt has excelled in the passing game, seeing 25 targets in the four games he’s played and scoring twice.

Dynasty Impact: Hunt finished last season as the sixth running back taken in startup ADP but fell to 32nd heading into this season which led to his trade value being all over the place. However, if he keeps playing this well for Cleveland he’s sure to land the lead role somewhere else this off-season. That should be enough to return his dynasty value to the RB1 territory. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to value him as a low-end RB1 if you have the assets.

Survival of the Fittest

The vacancy created from Hunt’s departure from Kansas City created the uncertainty that plagued the Chiefs backfield all season. At first, it seemed as if incumbent Damien Williams would be the Chiefs back to own. That was until the Bills cut LeSean McCoy during preseason where he immediately signed with Kansas City. There was also Darrel Williams, a 2018 undrafted free agent, who sparingly saw time last season before sparingly seeing time this season. That left Darwin Thompson, the sixth-rounder from Utah State who got dynasty players in a tizzy right as rookie drafts were rolling around. Yet, this past Sunday was the first significant action Thompson’s seen all season and it still took injuries to Damien and Darrel Williams to get it. But Thompson made the most of it, running for 44 yards on just 11 carries plus a score.

Dynasty Impact: Besides McCoy, the Williams’ should be expected to return next season as both are incredibly cheap when it comes to the salary cap. However, that will also work in Thompson’s favor as the Chiefs will not be obligated to play one over the other and can strictly go off talent. Under that scenario, Thompson has just a good of a shot as either William especially in year two of his young career. Currently, he’s 52nd in running back ADP but just the third Chiefs running back on the list. He’s a strong hold if you still have him on your dynasty roster now but trying to acquire him may be tough as you’ll be fighting the image of his potential all off-season.

michael moore