Cornerstone Report: Week 11
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and 2020 rookie class.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare player values.
Last week’s edition profiling CeeDee Lamb, JK Dobbins and Ryan Finley can be found here. Also check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
NCAA WEEK ELEVEN
Let’s examine two 2020 prospects whose injuries may lower their costs in rookie drafts.
Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State
Wallace was a top 125 overall recruit in the 2017 class. He held offers from Michigan, Notre Dame and Oklahoma before committing to Oklahoma State. He played sparingly as a true freshman but led the team in all receiving categories as a sophomore.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Through eight games this year, Wallace led the country with 550 yards after the catch. He does it by playing stronger than his size (6’0” and 185 pounds), winning 50/50 situations and running good routes.
You’ve probably seen this play but it deserves another look (this time with Spanish commentary).
🚑 Tylan Wallace (WR de Oklahoma State) se rompe el ligamento cruzado anterior (ACL) y se perderá lo que queda de temporada. En los últimos 21 partidos tuvo 139 REC para 2.394 yardas y 20 TD. Aspiraba a ser 1ª ronda en el próximo NFL Draft. 😩#GoPokes pic.twitter.com/W9JA2Flng2
— NCAA Football – Esp (@ncaafesp) November 1, 2019
Watch Wallace sell the slant then finish with a high-point hands catch over the defender.
Tylan Wallace 👀💨 pic.twitter.com/nA29PBB9W7
— Football Is Life (@FootbaIl_Tweets) August 31, 2019
More highlights are here:
Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace (@OfficialTylan2) 2019 Highlights
Wallace is one of the most explosive players in the country. Through 8 games, Wallace has 53 catches for 903 yards & 8 TDs #GoPokes
Full Video 🎥: https://t.co/Gqouj548Nb pic.twitter.com/lONR3vKayG
— JustBombsProductions (@JBP_Official) October 30, 2019
Despite tearing his ACL on October 30th, Wallace is expected to declare for the 2020 NFL Draft. He projects as a day two selection and will be just 20 years old on draft day.
His pre-injury DLF devy rank is tenth among 2020 prospects (WR6) and 17th across all classes. This suggests a pre-injury rookie draft slot of 1.10.
He ranks seventh in the WR devy rankings and fifth among 2020 WRs.
Wallace is 37th in the DLF cornerstone rankings, combining first and second year NFL players with 2020 rookies. This implies a #15 rank (2.03 in rookie drafts) among 2020 players as WR8. Note that the cornerstone rankings are post-injury and represent a bit of a discount versus the devy rankings.
To this point, Wallace may be available at a post-injury discount leading up to rookie drafts, or at least before he officially declares. Use the uncertainty to acquire this exciting player who checks boxes including breakout age, receiving market share, production and film.
Grant Calcaterra, TE Oklahoma
2019 was an exceptional year for rookie tight ends, and two TEs from the state of Florida are already creating excitement for 2021. But the 2020 group includes some interesting prospects, as well.
One of them is Oklahoma’s Calcaterra, who has been limited to three games this season, most recently due to an “upper body” injury.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Calcaterra is sure-handed and versatile, as shown with this one handed catch he starts from the slot.
Season starting so we will stash this away for a while. #Sooners TE Grant Calcaterra seals #OU Big 12 championship victory… Now let 2019 begin. pic.twitter.com/RnaCjgOwqF
— Bob Przybylo (@BPrzybylo) September 1, 2019
These traits and more were on display even in five games as a true freshman:
"Grant Calcaterra went up and just ripped it down!" – @gusjohnson pic.twitter.com/zIDTu8HTMm
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 12, 2017
Calcaterra was a national top-250 recruit in the 2017 class. He held offers from Florida and Texas A&M in addition to OU.
He is outside the top 69 in the DLF devy rankings, which include only one TE, Miami (FL)’s Brevin Jordan for 2021.
Calcaterra is third in the DLF TE devy rankings, TE2 in 2020 behind Missouri’s Albert Okwuegbunam.
He is not included in the DLF cornerstone rankings, which is fine given they only include four NFL tight ends.
Ideally, Calcaterra would play in November and fill out his prospect profile. He should show well at the NFL combine, but is a somewhat slight 6’4” and 233 pounds. Nonetheless, he has consistently produced when healthy. ADP and rankings data project him as a fourth round dynasty rookie pick.
I discourage using devy picks on all but elite tight end prospects so do not advise investing in Calcaterra yet. His concerns can be mitigated if he can get on the field, gain weight and show well at the combine. If so, he should climb to the third round in dynasty rookie drafts with upside to the late second.
NFL WEEK TEN
Ryquell Armstead, RB JAC
Let’s continue the injury theme and discuss a key dynasty handcuff.
Armstead has been a popular handcuff since Jacksonville drafted him in the fifth round in May, but his ADP keeps rising, up four rounds since week one.
Is this because we think a Leonard Fournette injury is closer to happening every week it doesn’t?
Armstead played a limited role in the passing game in college, catching 29 balls in 46 games. He had a heavy rushing workload, however, averaging 21 carries per game as a senior, good for a 72nd percentile dominator rating.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
He showed the ability to produce as a receiver in week ten, catching all five of his targets for 65 yards.
In spite of a stout 220 pound frame, Armstead’s 68th percentile athletic profile translates well to the field.
I thought I’d check out the one Senior Bowl invite I haven’t watched — Temple RB RyQuell Armstead. I like him. Contact balance and burst are prevalent and this guy can just cut on a dime my goodness. #DraftTwitter pic.twitter.com/7isMPUI2B5
— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) November 15, 2018
Armstead is a near-must handcuff for Fournette teams and Jacksonville has a favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs (vs TB, vs LAC, @ LAR, @ ATL).
The DLF Trade Finder shows varying prices being paid for him in actual MFL deals. Fournette owners should expect to lose some bargaining power.
2019-11-02: Ryquell Armstead for RB Darwin Thompson, KCC
2019-11-01: Ryquell Armstead for RB Rashaad Penny, SEA
2019-10-31: Ryquell Armstead for RB Alexander Mattison, MIN and Year 2020 round 5 draft pick
2019-10-31: Ryquell Armstead for RB Tra Carson, FA and Year 2020 round 5 draft pick
He is 37th in the DLF rookie rankings and 11th in the rookie RB rankings between Darwin Thompson and Ty Johnson. He is not included in the top 62 of the DLF cornerstone rankings.
The DLF Trade Analyzer values him around a 2020 mid-third round pick, close to players such as Carlos Hyde and Benny Snell.
Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
