Three Players to Sell Right Now
Let’s use a data-driven approach to identify three players to sell high right now in dynasty.
Melvin Gordon, RB LAC
The 26-year-old could not be given away in dynasty during his holdout. It was not much easier in the four weeks after his return, when he averaged 9.0 PPR points per game and was overshadowed by Austin Ekeler. But from weeks nine through eleven, Gordon was fantasy’s RB3, doubling his production to 19.4 PPR ppg.
Combining these two stretches, Gordon averages 13.4 PPR points per game, 18th among running backs, between David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay. This hot streak has revitalized his value. But a closer look screams, “sell.”
Gordon benefitted from a favorable schedule in this three-game stretch. He averaged 18.7 carries per game while averaging just 11.0 carries per game the prior four weeks. I contend it is partly due to soft defenses he faced in Green Bay, Oakland and Kansas City.
Second and more concerning is his lack of usage in the passing game. Despite the uptick in carries, Gordon averaged only 3.3 targets per game and produced a total receiving line of 7-75-0 in those three games. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler had nearly double the targets and caught 14-160-1. And when Gordon was RB3 in these three weeks? Ekeler was RB8, getting nearly all the receiving work and still averaging 7.7 carries per game.
In 2018, Gordon averaged 5.7 targets per game. He averages 3.7 targets per game this year. The most targets he has seen in a single game is four. In 2018, he had four or more targets in all but two games.
The third area of concern is the nature of his production. 41.7% of the points scored in this three-game span came from touchdowns. We have a running back compiling points against poor defenses, with a diminished role as a receiver, dependent on touchdowns for points.
The final reason I’m selling Melvin Gordon is bigger. The 2020 rookie running back class is the most talented and anticipated since 2017. On draft day, he will be a 27-year-old free agent who held out for the first four games of 2019 while we looked on in disbelief.
Avoid investing in all but the top incumbent running backs before the NFL Draft. Players such as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook should be safe. But disruption is coming.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR SF
Sanders astounded the dynasty community by being ready – and effective – for week one this season just nine months after tearing his Achilles tendon. The community seems caught up in this comeback story and his assumed role as the WR1 in one of the league’s top offenses. But we should capitalize on this perception by selling right now.
The San Francisco wideout is just the WR27 on the season. Due to his in-season trade from Denver, Sanders did not have a bye week. He will play 16 games through 16 weeks. So despite his WR27 ranking, he is the WR51 on a points per game (PPR) basis, averaging a mere 10.9 ppg, between Preston Williams and JuJu Smith-Schuster (buy low article forthcoming).
Additionally, Sanders has been boom or bust, producing 5.0 or fewer points in five of 12 games – four of them with 3.0 or fewer points.
But is he the WR1 in San Francisco? First of all, the team’s true leading receiver is tight end George Kittle. Second, he has fallen behind a rookie, Deebo Samuel, in terms of targets per game, targets per snap and fantasy points per snap. Since Sanders joined the Niners in time for week eight, Deebo Samuel is fantasy’s WR10 (15.1 ppg) and Sanders is WR37 (10.0 ppg).
The DLF Trade Analyzer uses an algorithm combining ADP and rankings data and real-world MFL trades to value players and draft picks. It values Sanders roughly as a 2020 early second-round rookie pick. Sell now if you can fetch anything near that price. The dynasty community has not caught on to his poor production. We are also mere weeks away from the off-season when a 32-year-old coming off a major injury will be severely discounted.
Darren Waller, TE OAK
I bought Waller everywhere this off-season, due both to his inexpensive price and tremendous upside. He was one of this year’s clearest buys yet stayed at a bargain price. His overall ADP remained around 173 as late as August despite repeated ravings from camp, beat reporters and Jon Gruden. He has since produced a TE1 season. But we can like a player as a screaming buy but also look to cash out after they produce. Waller’s profile includes red flags.
My two concerns are his overall profile and target share after this season. Waller is extremely talented. His athleticism jumps off the screen. But he was just a sixth-round draft pick. He entered the league in 2015 but had only 18 receptions before this year. He played in only 22 games (starting just four).
For 2019, talent met situation. But situation was the more meaningful variable due to a lack of viable pass catchers in Oakland. Waller’s best attribute for 2019 was opportunity. Returning players represented only 26% of targets, 27% of receptions, 23% of receiving yards and 11% of receiving touchdowns from last season. After the team dismissed Antonio Brown, the receiving corps consisted of Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, and Zay Jones.
Through 12 games, Waller indeed leads the Raiders with 78 targets, a strong 23.4% share. But his raw target numbers have decreased since week eight. Until then, Waller averaged 7.3 targets per game and only had one game with fewer than seven targets.
In the four games since, he has averaged 5.0 targets per game and has seen seven or more targets only once. His average receiving line was 6-62-0.4 in the first eight games and 4-53-0 since. He was fantasy’s TE3 after week eight and is the TE13 since week nine.
The Raiders are sure to address the wide receiver position next off-season through the draft and/or free agency. The 2020 rookie receiving class is both top-heavy and deep. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a first-round pick and three third-round picks in hand. The opportunity contributing to Waller’s first-half success may dry up next season.
Tell me what you think about these “Sell Now” players. Agree or disagree? Who are you selling right now? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack. Thanks for reading.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
