Cornerstone Report: Week 14
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and 2020 rookie class.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare player values.
Last week’s edition – profiling Tua Tagovailoa and N’Keal Harry – is here.
NCAA WEEK 14
Tamorrion Terry, WR Florida State
Terry was a three-star recruit from rural Turner County HS in Georgia. His top 350 national ranking belied his talent and he collected scholarship offers from Auburn and Georgia before enrolling at FSU.
He was redshirted by Jimbo Fisher (a decision still questioned by FSU fans) in 2017. He has since shown big-play ability despite poor quarterback play and arguably the Power Five’s worst offensive line.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Terry has excellent speed. But he is more than a straight-line runner. He has an explosive first step and good lateral agility, especially for 6’4” and 203 pounds. He creates yards on his own and makes defenders miss with both strength and quickness. He has terrific body control, a wide catch radius and the ability to win 50/50 balls.
https://twitter.com/SportsDGI/status/1167838556494028801
As we approach rookie drafts, you will hear he takes plays off and has inconsistent effort. While true to an extent, some analysts will cite the wrong examples for this conclusion.
For years, FSU offensive coordinator Kendal Briles has let his receivers take plays off when they are not involved. As his father, former Baylor head coach Art Briles, said in 2015:
“Why make a dog chase an imaginary bone? If we’re going to run somebody [downfield], we’re going to throw them the ball. If they’re running fast, the ball’s probably in the air. If they’re not, they’re probably not. It sounds simple, but that’s okay, we’re fine with that.”
While Terry does need to be more consistent, do not be affected by analysts citing this as inconsistent effort.
In a deep rookie class, Terry is an inexpensive, high-upside option. He comes in at 29th among 2020 prospects in the DLF Devy Rankings, implying a 3.05 rookie pick as WR10. I will gamble on his upside there but would hesitate if he creeps in to round two.
The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players and 2020 rookies. Terry ranks 64th in these rankings, 25th among 2020 prospects.
Terry’s athleticism should boost his stock leading up to the NFL Draft, but given the quality and depth of this rookie class, his price is likely capped somewhere around the late second round of rookie drafts.
NFL WEEK 13
Andy Isabella, WR ARI
“Trust the process” is the apt phrase for Andy Isabella in dynasty.
He was one of my top off-season buys. His slow start simply extends this buying window.
Isabella’s elite prospect profile remains and checks boxes of athleticism (88th-percentile SPARQ, 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine), breakout age (19.8 years; 70th percentile) and college production (97th percentile dominator rating).
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Landing spot? Check. He is part of an up-tempo, pass-happy offense led by one of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks.
He has flashed in every limited opportunity.
#Cardinals rookie Andy Isabella comes down with a 59-yard TD grab. pic.twitter.com/n02endEifq
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 16, 2019
Isabella’s usage is starting to increase, as shown by his snap count percentages split in three blocks: weeks one-four, five-eight and nine-12:
4% – > 13% -> 30%
The uptick is justified. In weeks nine through 12, he produced a team-best 0.48 fantasy points per snap (admittedly on a small sample size). Christian Kirk was second among WRs playing at least 30% of snaps with 0.27 PPR/snap.
The buy window is closing at this price. Dynasty trade deadlines are coming. Playoff contenders are making their final push. Current production is valued more now than at any time of the year.
After this window, young players will only gain value during the off-season.
Isabella’s overall ADP, based on community mock drafts, is at 128, between Latavius Murray and Tony Pollard. It has declined from its peak of 106 near the NFL Draft, and held steady during the regular season. The market is not yet pricing in positive signals from usage and production.
The DLF team ranks Isabella 110th overall in our dynasty rankings, slightly higher than his ADP; possibly as a leading indicator of ADP value. He is WR57 in the DLF WR rankings, a steal between Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jamison Crowder.
Our Dynasty Trade Analyzer values him in line with an early second-round 2020 rookie pick. Considering Isabella’s rookie ADP was 2.03 in May, this suggests his value has held steady.
In the DLF Cornerstone Rankings, Isabella comes in at 55th, between Vanderbilt RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Parris Campbell.
Finally, the DLF Trade Finder pulls actual deals from MyFantasyLeague. Recent trades involving Isabella include the following:
- 2019-11-26: Andy Isabella and TE Evan Engram, NYG for WR Calvin Ridley, ATL
- 2019-11-23: Andy Isabella and Year 2020 round three draft pick for WR Julian Edelman, NEP
- 2019-11-23: Andy Isabella and WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK for WR Curtis Samuel, CAR
- 2019-11-22: Andy Isabella for RB Tony Pollard, DAL
- 2019-11-21: Andy Isabella and TE Josh Oliver, JAC for TE Jared Cook, NOS
- 2019-11-21: Andy Isabella and TE Darren Waller, OAK for RB Marlon Mack, IND
- 2019-11-20: Andy Isabella for WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Prices vary but generally reinforce the low costs suggested by our other data. This is the window to buy Andy Isabella.
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
