Are 2020 Draft Picks Dynasty Gold?

Dwight Peebles Posted On November 29, 2019

On January 24, 1848, near Coloma, California, James Wilson Marshall discovered gold flakes in the American River – starting the Gold Rush which captivated America and begun our obsession with gold.

April 23-25, 2020, NFL teams will be mining for gold, hoping to discover their franchise saviors and players to lead them to a Super Bowl victory. This will be the culmination of the fantasy football Gold Rush. 2020 rookie draft picks have been building in value and are being treated as if they are worth more than gold.

How do you approach all this insanity to maximize your value? Rebuilding teams are hoarding the draft picks. Teams on the brink of a fantasy title are offloading them, using them as chips to secure valuable pieces for a championship run. Bankroll leagues have owners who have been hoarding money like Scrooge McDuck for the past off-seasons in preparation for this incoming rookie class. The hype is building, how do you navigate this hype to maximize your piece of the golden pie?

CONTENDERS/LATE FIRST-ROUND PICKS

Contending teams are in the best position to sell the draft picks now and maximize value as it pertains to their teams. The value of the picks will increase as it nears the draft but the value for a contending team is ripe right now. These picks can easily take a team right on the verge all the way to the promised land.

The current value of a late first-round 2020 pick in a 1QB format is 206.6 per the DLF Trade Analyzer. Players in this range that could be attained are Sterling Shepard (217.3), Mark Andrews (217.5), and possibly Austin Ekeler (232.4). Personally, I think attaining any of those players will likely be a stretch but possible. Toss in a 2020 second or third-round pick and you have a better chance.

There are plenty of veteran targets who would make a great addition to a team looking for the final piece of the puzzle. Julian Edelman (205.6), Marvin Jones (163.7), and Robby Anderson (155.6) and great targets which could bolster your roster and have great value down the stretch. Jarvis Landry (238.2) is a sexy target who is coming on strong as Cleveland starts to figure out their offense and a lot of fantasy players are disenchanted with Landry.

In superflex/2QB, the value of the pick is 197.2 and with this value, all the players above are in play but you could possibly add Drew Brees (240.2) or Tom Brady (157.5) easily if you are in dire straits at the quarterback position.

IN-BETWEEN/MID-ROUND PICKS

Now, it gets tricky as to which direction you can take and how to proceed with these valuable picks. The mid-round pick in the first round is likely to get you an RB1/WR1 for many years and the current value in 1QB format of the mid-first is 284.5 on the Trade Analyzer. This value can get you a piece to rebuild or if you hold on, the value will likely increase and an even better player could come along as the hype builds in the off-season.

I am firmly in the camp of holding on to mid-round picks until closer to the draft. Players you could likely target now are Phillip Lindsay (282.9), Devin Singletary (283.4), or Mike Williams (291.6). The issue with players in this range is most dynasty owners are holding on to them as they do have long-term potential. All three of them have shown the ability to produce in the NFL and if the offer came through for one of those, it would be tough to turn down.

Therein lies the conundrum – if you can flip a rookie pick, an unknown commodity, for a producing NFL talent – is it smart long-term to take this investment? There are other tantalizing assets in the range – Tyler Boyd (301.1), Derrius Guice (307.9), and AJ Brown (311.4) are close value-wise and could be proven building blocks who usher your team forward for years to come.

If owners get antsy to hoard these picks, trading for some of the players listed above would present your team with solid, safe players to build your dynasty rosters. The reason I would advocate waiting is the increasing value could eventually lead to an offer of Tyler Boyd for your mid-first to possibly Allen Robinson (340.1) or Derrick Henry (361.9) for the same pick. The value spike and attraction to these picks could lead delirious owners to trading valuable long-term assets for an unproven but tantalizing rookie pick.

The value of the same first-round pick in superflex/2QB is currently at 271.6 and many of the same players are in the range which I listed above. A quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo (287.9), Daniel Jones (306.7), or Josh Allen (310.3) come into play as far as the current value and it would difficult to turn down an offer with one of those three young quarterbacks in this format.

The best path is to wait. The hype – the impending Draft Pick Gold Rush – is going to exponentially increase and what you could get in April for the pick is going to be very interesting and tempting. It’s hard to remember, as good as this incoming class is, a good number of them will fail or not be the fantasy producers we draft them as. Taking the proven talent will always be safer although not as fun.

PRETENDERS/EARLY-ROUND PICKS

Here come the good picks, the ‘sure things’, the players who will anchor your fantasy squads to titles in 2020, 2021, and 2022 – right? An early first-round draft pick holds the current value of 391.8 in the DLF Trade Analyzer. If you are locked in for sure and know you have the 1.01 in 2020 – the value jumps to 391.8, your first-born child, and an actual gold brick. The value of these early picks is already staggering.

To put his in perspective, current players in the value range in 1QB leagues are Lamar Jackson (382.3), Melvin Gordon (409.8), and Adam Thielen (418.1). All of those players could legitimately be amongst the top five at their position next season, although Gordon and Thielen are probably closer to the 10-12 range at their positions. Players above this value range and possible to attain if your team is good and needs to get over the hump could possibly be Le’Veon Bell (426.3) or Travis Kelce (473.8 but older and maybe attainable).

Superflex/2QB value of the early first-round pick is 373.9 and once again, the players above are all in play and players such as Todd Gurley (380.1), Matt Ryan (393.1), and even Julio Jones (432.5) could come into play if someone is desperate for your pick.

The early-round pick is a commodity that isn’t really even being moved anymore. The numbers of trades I have seen with them have been decreasing all season and they are being hoarded. In bankroll leagues, dynasty owners have been posturing and preparing themselves for more than a year for this upcoming influx of talent.

BEYOND THE FIRST

A word of caution, don’t disvalue the later picks as well – if you could trade an early first for a slightly later first-round pick and a second, it may be a very wise investment. An early second-round pick is carrying a 150.0 value and players close to equivalent are Marvin Jones (163.7) or Will Fuller (167.5).

The mid-second round pick value dips to 108.9 and a few players in this range are Dante Pettis (109.6) and Rashaad Penny (116.9). The late-second round value is still even 79.1, which is close to the value of John Ross (76.7) or Jaylen Samuels (87.9).

The second-round 2020 picks are holding value and there is a bevy of talent in the upcoming draft. The DLF staff did a 2020 Mock Draft recently and the players still available in the second and even third rounds were impressive. There are many young talented players who could start from their first snap in the NFL. The incoming class is deep and I highly recommend getting second and third-round picks if the price is right.

Are they really more valuable than gold?

The price these 2020 picks are at is already the highest I can ever remember and the dynasty community has been bracing for the value to increase even more. The best way to approach this is to hold them as long as you can but do not be afraid to turn them into proven NFL talent especially if the fever overcomes a desperate owner. Teams without picks will see this incoming talent and panic-trade to get a piece of the action. We all see it every year.

This Draft Pick Gold Rush is only just beginning and hopefully, dynasty owners don’t sink to the depths of which our ancestors did to find real gold back in the 1800s. The fever pitch is only going to get more intense, and the values will rise to heights we have not seen before.