Twitter Observations: Week 12

Michael Moore Posted On November 27, 2019

Where did the season go? We are three quarters of the way through but it only seems like yesterday that we had no idea how good Lamar Jackson was going to be. For those lucky enough to see Jackson or any other stud coming, you’re gearing up for the playoffs. For everyone else, you’re deciding whether to blow your team up and start over or try to make another run next year.

Below are a few players you could target if you’re in the latter or trade away if you’re the former.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Henry Happy Returns

Derrick Henry: The best player who a small minority of absolute wackos will always insist is average no matter how much he keeps smashing every week.

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 24, 2019

Derrick Henry has never been a sexy pick in dynasty startup drafts and, up until last season, he didn’t deserve to be. His volume was relatively low his first two seasons, averaging 143 carries per season. Enter new coach Mike Vrabel who finally started utilizing Henry more and reaping the reward.

Henry set career-highs across the stat sheet in 2018 with 215 carries, 1,059 yards and a dozen touchdowns all of which he’s set to blow past this year. Now, his best games seem to come against the Jaguars but, good news, the Titans are set to play Jacksonville not once but twice for the foreseeable future!

Dynasty Impact: The days of acquiring Henry cheaply may finally be over. He’s averaging 90 rushing yards-per-game and has already scored ten times to make him fantasy’s sixth highest-scoring running back yet his ADP among dynasty running backs is still only 19th. That won’t last but don’t go crazy if you’re looking to acquire him.

Of those 18 running backs ahead of him in ADP, he’s tied for third-oldest behind Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. He’s also a free agent after this season so we don’t yet know where he’ll even play in 2020. I’d ride out Henry’s excellent 2019 campaign then try to move on in the off-season.

Golden Receivers

https://twitter.com/_NickWhalen/status/1198476573843841024?s=20

Even though it’s dynasty, it’s hard to be patient with players. Case in point, the three receivers mentioned above: DJ Chark, DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. All were high rookie draft picks last year and entered, seemingly, conducive situations for their fantasy prospects right out of the gate. But none of them finished with more than 800 receiving yards their rookie season or in the top 36 in fantasy scoring which dampened their value this past off-season.

Fast forward to this year and all have already surpassed 800 yards already through Week 12 and all are at least top 20 fantasy receivers and, in Chark and Moore’s case, WR1s.

Dynasty Impact: This year’s incoming rookie receivers are among the most hyped in years but the three receivers above make for suitable alternatives. All are 24 or younger while all have been performing with sub-optimal quarterbacks throwing them the ball. Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Nick Foles (and more!) are the quarterbacks responsible for the breakouts of Chark, Moore, and Sutton. Just imagine when their respective teams upgrade quarterbacks.

Their current ADPs of 16 (Moore), 20 (Sutton), and 26 (Chark) will seem like a bargain.

A Tevin and a Curse

Has there ever been a more tilting player in fantasy sports history than Tevin Coleman

— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) November 25, 2019

Whether it’s DFS (as the tweet suggests above) or dynasty, the same sentiment about Tevin Coleman is true – high on promise but short on actual results. Coleman continues to fail upwards by landing on the most run-heavy team this past off-season despite rushing for 100 yards in a game just three times and scoring just 18 touchdowns over his four-season career in Atlanta.

But thanks to a rejuvenated offense and injuries to fellow 49er running backs Matt Breida and Jerick McKinnon (remember him?), the lead back role is Coleman’s to lose. On the season, he’s averaging just 50 yards-per-game on the ground but has scored six times. In all, he’s fantasy’s 16th highest-scoring running back when it comes to fantasy points-per-game.

Dynasty Impact: On the surface, you could see Coleman’s dynasty ADP of 29th as a screaming value. He’s signed in San Francisco for two more years and the offense isn’t changing anytime soon. However, while the 49ers do love to run the ball – averaging 33.7 rush attempts-per-game – they also love spreading the wealth. The most any single 49er running back has carried the ball in a game this season is 20 and they’ve only had three games where a back had more than 15 rush attempts.

McKinnon is certainly gone after this season while Breida will likely return being a restricted free agent. That leaves Coleman as the most likely running back to be there in 2020 but don’t give up a lot for a part-time runner even if it’s on a top running team.

Ryan King

Since Ryan Tannehill became starter, here's a list of quarterbacks (minimum four games played) who have averaged more fantasy points per game:

1. Lamar Jackson

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 25, 2019

We discussed the Titans quarterback transition when it first happened. That was when it appeared the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill had breathed new life into other Titans, namely Corey Davis and AJ Brown. And while they’ve certainly shown flashes, it’s Tannehill himself who’s been the most valuable fantasy asset.

As the tweet mentions above, Tannehill is among the highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks since taking over the job, scoring multiple touchdowns in every game he’s started and scoring more fantasy points than every quarterback in the league except for one. If you were one of those desperate dynasty teams that picked up Tannehill off the scrap heap, it’s turned into quite the value.

Dynasty Impact: The play of the Titans and their offense since Tannehill took over has given new life to his real-life and fantasy value. Just when it seemed the Titans would be in the market for a new quarterback this off-season, Tannehill proceeds to play lights out and leads the team to a 4-1 record. And unlike other surprise quarterbacks this season that eventually got figured out – Kyle Allen, Gardner Minshew, etc – Tannehill is a seven-year veteran who the league is very familiar with.

Currently, he doesn’t even show up in dynasty startups, at least according to ADP, which means he’s essentially free. He’s certainly not the type that you can build your dynasty team around, especially in one-quarterback leagues, but he has value as your backup or even potential trade bait this off-season.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.