Cornerstone Report: Week 13

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and 2020 rookie class.

It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare player values.

Last week’s edition profiling Devonta Smith and Gardner Minshew is here. Also check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.

NCAA WEEK 13

Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

We will not rehash Tagovailoa’s injury except by noting he had successful surgery and is expected to make a full recovery.

He has been an elite producer his entire college career.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

His production is not simply a result of being surrounded by top talent. If that was the case, prior Alabama QBs would have produced at or near his level. Alabama has been the top recruiting program in college football for years. Alabama’s best two offenses over the last 20 seasons (as measured by yards per play) were both led by Tagovailoa, and by a wide margin.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Additionally, in the last 20 years, only two quarterbacks in all of college football have produced a rating of at least 200.0 in a season with a minimum of 250 pass attempts. Tagovailoa is one (Joe Burrow, profiled in week nine, is the other).

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Assuming a healthy recovery, Tagovailoa is worthy of the 1.01 pick in superflex rookie drafts.

His injury has knocked him down a few spots to 27th overall in the DLF Devy Rankings, which are based on a 1QB format. He ranks second in our Devy QB Rankings behind 2021 prospect Trevor Lawrence, but is still first among 2020 QBs.

The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second year NFL players with 2020 prospects. Tagovailoa comes in at 51st here, still as QB1 for 2020.

The dip appears minor rather than significant, and we see reports of a successful surgery and promising recovery timeline.

Expect his dynasty value to quickly recover assuming this timetable.

NFL WEEK 12

N’Keal Harry, WR NEP

Harry was the 1.01 rookie in DLF Rookie ADP data this off-season. After spending the first eight weeks of the season on injured reserve, he saw four targets (3-18-0) in his first game action in week 11.

His overall ADP peaked at 42nd in June, bottomed around 70th after landing on IR and is now slowly recovering.

It is following a trend we see time and time again when quality dynasty players miss significant time due to injury.

Harry’s impeccable prospect profile remains intact. So does his favorable landing spot. His depth chart position is now better than ever (recently improved by Josh Gordon’s departure and Phillip Dorsett’s week 11 head injury; technically by Antonio Brown’s departure, as well).

Assuming he stays healthy, expect his ADP to recoup or surpass its prior highs. His present ADP therefore represents a significant savings.

Harry has fallen to sixth (WR3) in the DLF Rookie Rankings; understandable given his injury and the production from other rookies. He slid from first to fourth in our current WR Rookie Rankings, with a high value of second and a low of sixth.

The DLF Cornerstone Rankings put him at 14th among first and second year NFL players and 2020 prospects. His values here range from second overall (yours truly; the injury does not negatively affect his value) to 27th.

So both ADP data and DLF rankings show a clear drop in value.

The DLF Trade Analyzer combines ADP data, dynasty and devy rankings with real-life MFL trade data to arrive at values for players and rookie picks. It values Harry in line with a 2020 mid-first round rookie pick. On one hand, this is a slight drop from actual 2019 drafts. However, the 2020 draft class is seen as stronger than last year’s.

Let’s finally pull some real-world MyFantasyLeague trades using the DLF Trade Finder. Harry has been an actively traded asset. Some deals include the following:

2019-11-11: N’Keal Harry + Year 2020 round 3 draft pick for RB Miles Sanders, PHI

2019-11-13: N’Keal Harry + WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK for TE OJ Howard, TBB

2019-11-14: N’Keal Harry + Year 2020 round 2 draft pick for WR Allen Robinson, CHI

2019-11-14: N’Keal Harry + LB Jarrad Davis, DET for WR Calvin Ridley, ATL

2019-11-14: N’Keal Harry for WR Dede Westbrook, JAC + Year 2020 round 1 draft pick

2019-11-16: N’Keal Harry for WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI + Year 2020 round 1 draft pick

Harry’s trade value fluctuates but is generally consistent with what the DLF ADP, rankings and Trade Analyzer tell us, and is indeed low versus his off-season price.

His value should follow a trajectory similar to that normally seen with quality players coming off injury. Assuming health going forward, the value should have already bottomed. The slope of its climb going forward will depend on his production. A splash game or two will ramp it up.

Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.

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