Cornerstone Report: Week 12

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and 2020 rookie class.

It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare player values.

Last week’s edition profiling Tylan Wallace, Grant Calcaterra and Ryquell Armstead can be found here.

NCAA WEEK 12

The game of the year between LSU and Alabama was a chance to see multiple devy prospects on the same field. While the highest-profile players have been covered inside and out, let’s get an edge by going deeper.

Devonta Smith, WR Alabama

It shows the quality of Alabama’s recruiting when a top-75 overall prospect is the third most hyped member of the Tide’s 2020 draft-eligible receivers.

Smith will come at a discount compared to Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, but he offers similar upside and represents an intelligent value play.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Look at the initial burst and speed in this play as he catches LSU’s star CB Derek Stingley Jr napping.

Defenders have to respect Smith’s speed. He takes advantage and creates separation on shorter routes.

While Jeudy and Ruggs are projected to go in the first round of rookie drafts, Smith’s DLF devy rank of 42nd among 2020 prospects implies a fourth-round cost.

Expect his value to rise.

The entire dynasty community watched him explode for a 7-213-2 line versus LSU.

Though listed at a slight 6’1” and 175 pounds, he will test well at Alabama’s pro day and the NFL Combine.

As a bonus, Smith is young. He will play the first two months of his rookie season as a 21-year-old.

Smith is ranked 20th among devy WRs, between Ohio State freshman Garrett Wilson and Liberty senior Antonio Gandy-Golden (profiled in Week Five).

In the DLF Cornerstone Rankings, which combine first and second-year NFL players and 2020 prospects, Smith comes in at 61st. I have him at 46th. Both numbers seem low.

NFL WEEK 11

Gardner Minshew, QB JAC

In March 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars signed 30-year-old free agent Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract. In April, they used a sixth-round draft pick on Washington State quarterback Minshew.

Foles’ contract effectively gives him the starting job as long as he stays healthy and somewhat productive. On November 5th he returned from injury and was renamed the starter.

So what do we do with Minshew?

Taking a step back, we see a profile sending mixed signals, as we may expect from a sixth round pick.

Before Minshew was a marketer’s dream, he was a clean cut, three-star high school prospect from Mississippi whose highest-profile scholarship offers were from Akron and UAB.

Minshew committed to Troy University, transferred to a community college then played two seasons at East Carolina. In 2018, he enrolled at Washington State as a graduate transfer and finished fifth in the 2018 Heisman Trophy voting.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Despite a solid senior season, Gardner’s prospect profile raises questions about production. His efficiency, as measured by adjusted yards per attempt, is in the lower quartile of all NFL quarterbacks (I discussed this metric as a rough indicator of success).

His breakout age (21.3 years) places him in the lower third of NFL quarterbacks, and he split time both years at East Carolina.

But Minshew capitalized on his opportunity to start eight games in the NFL.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

With just four interceptions in nine games (eight starts) and an interception percentage equal to Tom Brady’s, Minshew’s best trait may be avoiding turnovers.

Yet he is not overly conservative. He ranks near the middle of the league in advanced metrics such as air yards per completion, total air yards and poor throw percentage.

Through week nine, Minshew was the QB9 in fantasy.

The DLF team ranks him at QB26, three spots ahead of Foles, while the DLF Superflex rankings have him at 109 overall, near Foles, Mitchell Trubisky and Ben Roethlisberger.

His overall 1QB dynasty rank of 219 is around players such as Auden Tate and Benny Snell.

The DLF Trade Analyzer suggests a value in line with an early 2020 second round rookie pick.

The DLF Trade Finder pulls real world MFL trades. It shows a drop in value after Foles was renamed the starter.

Before Foles’ Return

  • 2019-10-29: Minshew for QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI
  • 2019-10-29: Minshew for QB Kyler Murray, ARI
  • 2019-10-30: Minshew for Year 2020 round 1 draft pick
  • 2019-11-03: Minshew for TE Darren Waller, OAK
  • 2019-11-03: Minshew for Year 2020 round 1 draft pick

After Foles’ Return

  • 2019-11-06: Minshew for QB Tom Brady, NEP
  • 2019-11-06: Minshew for Year 2020 round 3 draft pick
  • 2019-11-07: Minshew for QB Ryan Finley, CIN (this person didn’t read Week Ten)
  • 2019-11-08: Minshew for Year 2020 round 2 draft pick

Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.

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