Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Ten
Hello and welcome back to our target and snap share article, where we look for patterns and trends in player opportunity. There was some interesting usage at all three skill positions last week. I’m going to run through some of the stand-out changes and try to put them in context from a dynasty perspective.
Running Backs
With the playoffs just around the corner, most fantasy owners and locked in on running backs. While Kalen Ballage and Brian Hill won’t surprise anyone by now, the recent trend in usage for Chris Carson and Joe Mixon was also interesting.
Brian Hill, ATL
Devonta Freeman may miss several weeks based on the latest news. The coaching staff say they feel confident in Hill as their lead running back. Luckily we don’t have to rely on what they say, however. As soon as Freeman left the field, Hill stepped into starter-level snaps at the position. While his 6.7% target share was not ideal, I think he’s a vital addition in the latter half of the season.
Kalen Ballage, MIA
Ballage may not be very good. In fact, I’m fairly certain he isn’t. But for one week at least, he had the lion’s share of the opportunity in Miami. The ceiling is muted both by the player and the team’s scoring opportunities, but he’s a definite hold/keep away as we enter the playoffs.
Chris Carson, SEA
Carson’s workload continues to impress in 2019. But in week ten, Rashad Penny fumbled away one of his few touches and that is probably what lead to a spike in snap rate for Carson. While I think his snap rate will climb back down in future weeks, it’s noticeable that without Penny the result was a huge boost for Carson.
Joe Mixon, CIN
Coming off their flex week, the Bengals seem to have made an effort to get Joe Mixon’s workload back to where we need it for fantasy. I’m sure that’s not why they did it, but the results are the same. If his usage keeps up then he could provide nice value for those still managing to hold him. If – as is more likely – Mixon’s season to date has hampered your team enough you may not be making a playoff run, I think it’s a good moment to try and trade him for more future value in dynasty.
Damien Williams, KC
While his snap change didn’t place him in the top five for week ten, I wanted to highlight his usage with the recent injury to LeSean McCoy. For the last two weeks, Williams has been the dominant force in the backfield and his production hasn’t quite lived up to that snap rate. I think we should expect it to in the future if McCoy remains out.
Wide Receivers
Allen Lazard and Taylor Gabriel both reasserted themselves in week ten as the actual number twos behind stud receivers.
Darius Slayton, NYG
Slayton is just about splitting the receiving opportunity with Golden Tate while Evan Engram is out. I have concerns about his role on the team – being more volatile given his larger aDot. I’m also still entirely unconvinced that Daniel Jones can provide continued relevance for this passing game long-term. However, he’s very clearly a good add-in dynasty right now and someone to roster as a flex or bye week option at least.
Christian Kirk, ARI
I mentioned Kirk again last week as another of the second-year players balling out in 2019 to less acclaim than deserved. However, in week ten he expanded his lead over Larry Fitzgerald in target share to three weeks. I thought I’d mention it again.
Kirk is another name on the list of players we should want on our dynasty teams just enough it starts to hurt.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith, TEN
Smith is a dynasty buy low right now. He continues to lead the position in target share and in week ten, he actually led the team in targets. However, his production has not spiked up as much as the casual dynasty player may want. Tight end as a position has obvious limits as a value even in dynasty and plenty of downside based on the tendency for them to flake out. However, he has the athletic and college production profile we want and now the NFL targets he needs. Right now you may get him for a less than he should be worth. For this year and the future, Smith could be a fantasy starter in dynasty.
Jacob Hollister, SEA
Over the last three weeks, Hollister has held a 9%, 14%, and 31% target share on the Seattle Seahawks. This might be a momentary spike for a team that throws the ball less often them most, making target share a little more volatile. However in week ten, he had as many targets as DK Metcalf. He offers short-term value at the position, but I think he could be on some waiver wires. If this kind of role keeps up on an offense this potent, well, it’s not something I’d want to leave out there for free.
Anyway, there is, as always, more to talk about than I fit inside one article. I encourage you to dig into the data yourself, as always, here is a link to the data I used for this article and the tables above.
Thanks again.
Peter Howard
@pahowdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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