Rookie Report Card: Week Ten
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2019 potential and long term upside.
The series continues this week as we look a bit closer at a couple highly-coveted rookies, Kyler Murray and Mecole Hardman.
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
Week 10 stats: 27/44 passing, 324 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, three carries, 38 rushing yards
Despite the critics pointing to his lack of size (5’-10” and 205 pounds), and only having started one season of college football, Murray proved to be a playmaker while at Oklahoma – both with his arm and his legs. Cool under pressure and blessed with great athleticism and a very strong arm, he profiled as an instant NFL starter and fringe QB1 for dynasty owners.
His gaudy stat line at Oklahoma, which included a 69% completion percentage, 4,361 passing yards and 42 touchdowns in his final season on campus, made him most likely to be the first quarterback off the board in both the NFL draft and dynasty rookie drafts. Landing in Arizona at number one overall with head coach Cliff Kingsbury and his Air Raid offense made him a slam dunk.
The Cardinals’ expected pace of play and the weapons in Arizona including David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and fellow rookies Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson pushed Murray from a pick on the second/third round turn in many rookie drafts to a fringe first rounder in single-quarterback formats, and from a top-three consideration to a near lock to be the top overall pick in super-flex rookie drafts.
Expectations from dynasty owners were high of Murray, and for the most part through his first 10 games he hasn’t disappointed. He’s finished as a top-12 option at the position in six of 10 games and only finished outside the top-16 twice.
Murray is proving himself to be the perfect quarterback for Kingsbury’s system. He’s incredibly elusive the pocket, he has made countless eyebrow raising throws on the run, and he has been opportunistic with his legs, choosing the right times to get extra yardage and knowing when to get down or get out of bounds. His quick release along with solid accuracy have been on display on a weekly basis and should have dynasty owners salivating at his upside once an offensive line is built around him.
Despite a start to the season that saw the Cardinals settling for way too many field goals and a rough two game road stretch against the Giants and Saints, Murray ranks as the QB9 through 10 weeks of his rookie season. Already a startable asset in the right matchups, his big performance in week 10 against the Buccaneers highlighted a lot of what dynasty owners were excited about when they selected him in rookie drafts over the summer.
His day included a dazzling run on a quarterback option early in the game where he glided for 30-yards on the ground, multiple deep outs that showed off his arm strength, slants to Isabella that highlighted his quick delivery and accuracy, and perhaps most impressively, his touch to feather passes over linebackers and safeties down the field. He was brilliant in every facet of the game in Tampa Bay and rewarded dynasty owners with a high-end QB1 performance.
Many have compared Murray to Russell Wilson. Considering their similar size, athleticism and ability to throw on the run, that appears to be a fair evaluation. Just like Wilson, he has elite QB1 upside on a weekly basis.
His small stature will continue to concern dynasty owners every time he makes a move up field. Although those apprehensions will likely never go away for us as dynasty owners, it’s no reason to overreact by selling the former Heisman winner. His league-winning upside should keep him on your roster and likely in your lineup for years to come.
Mecole Hardman, WR KC
Week 10 stats: one reception, 63 yards, one touchdown (one target)
After being an afterthought throughout much of the off-season, no other incoming NFL rookie made a bigger rise up draft boards than Mecole Hardman over the spring.
Catching just 60 passes for 961 yards and 11 touchdowns in his college career, Hardman was known as an undersized (5’-10”and 187 pounds) speedster (4.33 40-yard dash) that was extremely raw as a route runner but had a lot of upside. Many draft pundits expected him to be selected on day three of the NFL draft which in turn made most dynasty owners think he’d be a late round rookie pick. But when Andy Reid and the Chiefs selected him in the second round of the NFL Draft, dynasty owners immediately reacted and he moved into the top-15 on most rookie draft boards.
Since arriving in Kansas City, his playing time has been inconsistent. He’s taken advantage of his opportunities, though. He is leading the NFL in yards-per-reception with 20.8 while catching 21 of 33 targets for 437 yards and five touchdowns.
Due to the presence of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins (along with Travis Kelce), dynasty owners have struggled with how to value Hardman to this point. While it’s easy to rate him highly due to those efficiency stats, his attachment to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and that blazing speed, it’s also difficult for some to put a premium on a player that is the fourth option in his passing attack at best.
With that all said however, it’s clear that the Chiefs feel strongly about his upside in their offense. After not making an impact in week one, with Hill sidelined from weeks two through five and Watkins out of the lineup the following two games, Hardman (along with fellow speedster Demarcus Robinson) filled in nicely catching 16 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns over that stretch.
While it’s obvious that he hasn’t fined tuned his route running as he rounds off routes regularly and fails to come back to the ball on short to intermediate routes, his lack of consistent usage has been compensated for with world class speed on plays like the one he made in week 10. Although he caught just one pass on Sunday against the Titans, he made it count by turning a deep stop route into a 63-yard touchdown. Although the jump-pass from Mahomes was the most impressive part of the play, the sudden stop of the route by Hardman and his ability to immediately hit top speed after the catch and absolutely destroy the Tennessee secondary in a race to the end zone was jaw dropping and showed once again just how much big play ability he has.
In most cases, it wouldn’t be considered wise to invest in the fourth (or maybe fifth with Robinson) option in a particular passing attack – especially when the top three options are all signed through the end of 2020 – but it’s difficult not to get excited about Hardman’s upside. Clearly in the running for a jump in playing time, Hardman needs only to improve as a route runner to overtake Watkins on the depth chart, or a mistake off the field from Hill to become a weekly fantasy starter and the type of player that can win you fantasy matchups. Even as the WR3 in Kansas City and playing less than 20 snaps per game, he’s a worthy – albeit risky – flex play. Imagine what he could do with 50 snaps and Mahomes throwing him the ball.
According to DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder app his asking price is quite reasonable. He had a rookie draft ADP of 17 overall just a couple months ago. Recent dynasty league trades include DeVante Parker swapped for Hardman and a 2020 fourth round selection, a deal that saw Hardman sent straight up for Terry McLaurin, another that swapped Hardman for Watkins, and multiple deals where he was acquired straight up for a second round pick. All of these are good deals for any dynasty owner looking for a young receiver with WR1 upside in an elite offense.
All things told, the sky is the limit for Hardman but a couple things need to fall into place for him to reach his potential. First he needs a path to playing time, which could be closer than most realize if the Chiefs decide to move on after the season from Watkins – who counts for $21M of Kansas City’s cap. Second, he needs to improve as a route runner, which I believe is a foregone conclusion considering his change of direction ability and quickness.
Nobody should be surprised if he becomes a dynasty star as early as next season. We can only be disappointed in ourselves if we didn’t do everything we could to acquire him when he was as cheap as a future second round pick.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
