Cornerstone Report: Week Ten

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.

It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.

Last week’s edition profiling Joe Burrow and Ty Johnson can be found here. Also check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.

NCAA WEEK TEN

CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

I profiled Lamb in week eight but he deserves additional discussion. He keeps producing and climbing devy draft boards. Seemingly each week he evades multiple defenders for a highlight reel score.

In today’s NFL we want elite yards after the catch wide receivers. Lamb fits the bill while checking every box: measurables, production, metrics and the eye test. He has elite change of direction and short area quickness for someone standing 6’2” while displaying the strength you desire from a WR of that stature.

Lamb has risen to fifth overall in the DLF devy rankings, projecting as the 1.04 rookie pick and WR2 (behind Jerry Jeudy) in the 2020 rookie class. This is up one spot from the 1.05 pick two weeks ago.

He now sits at 11th overall in the DLF cornerstone rankings, which combine first and second year NFL players and 2020 rookies. As I note in my ranking: “Giving a big bump to my 2020 WR1. At 6’2, moves like he’s 5’10.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State

Since joining DLF in April, I have been touting Dobbins as a devy buy low and bounce back candidate. Similar to Cam Akers, he had a down 2018 season that negatively influenced many devy and dynasty players.

Both backs are examples of why context matters, and why one must examine a player’s full profile to see if a down year is an exception or a trend.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Through eight games in 2019, Dobbins’ numbers easily dispel concerns about his production and place 2018 as an exception.

He was a consensus top-50 overall recruit in the 2017 high school class as the country’s number two all purpose back. Even in his high school film he exhibits exceptional lateral burst, quickness and contact strength.

He immediately produced as a true freshman at Ohio State with prototypical size for the position at 5’10” and 217 pounds.

The traits he flashed in high school translated to college and will do so to the NFL, too.

On the first run, he uses strength to shed potential tacklers both in tight quarters and the open field.

Here he shows the ability to efficiently side-step a defender in space.

In my mind, Dobbins’ best trait is his lateral agility, especially with a view to the end zone.

https://twitter.com/RayGQue/status/1130877180509134849

The DLF devy team ranks Dobbins as the 18th overall devy player and 16th player in the 2020 class. This implies a 2.04 rookie draft position as RB8, behind Kylin Hill and Eno Benjamin.

Do not expect to be able to draft Dobbins that late. These rankings will catch up to Dobbins’ performance and eventually place him in the middle of round one, with additional upside depending on landing spot.

Dobbins is 33rd overall in the DLF cornerstone rankings, 14th among all 2020 prospects and sixth among 2020 running backs.

I rank him 18th among cornerstone players and 1.06 (RB5) among 2020 prospects. This is where I expect him to go in real world rookie drafts.

NFL WEEK NINE

Ty Johnson, RB DET

As expected in last week’s report, Ty Johnson did not assume a workhorse role in the first week after Kerryon Johnson’s injury. I still believe a sell window will open after a flash game – likely resulting from a one-off big run – but no one should have expected RB1 results or feature back responsibilities from Johnson given his college history and overall profile.

Ryan Finley, QB CIN

Andy Dalton was benched after becoming the only QB in the history of the NFL to start seasons 8-0 as well as 0-8.

Enter Finley, the fourth round pick from NC State. He started his career at Boise State and used all five years of eligibility, so he’s already 24 years old.

He possesses nice size at 6’4” and 213 pounds, but it’s hard to find much more to like about his overall profile.

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Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.

Finley put up fine numbers in his senior year but even then posted a pedestrian 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt. For reference, in his “down” 2019 true sophomore season, Trevor Lawrence is at 8.7 AY/A. Justin Herbert is producing 9.5 AY/A and Jacob Eason is at 9.3 AY/A.

Finley’s career college yards per attempt puts in him the 38th percentile of NFL QBs. His breakout age (21.7 years) is in the 24th percentile.

As a fourth round pick, Finley lacks draft capital. Meanwhile, the Bengals are tracking for a top two overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. They are in position to select Tua Tagovailoa, Burrow or Herbert, and the team just brought in an offensive-minded head coach in Zac Taylor.

I recommend immediately selling Ryan Finley if you have him stashed. I do not recommend acquiring him unless in a superflex league for dirt cheap. I do not expect Finley to produce. Even early in the year, when Andy Dalton was producing QB1 numbers, it required inflated volume that was unsustainable and horribly inefficient.

For pricing reference, at the time of this writing, the DLF Trade Finder sees one real world MFL trade since Finley took over Dalton’s starting job:

2019-10-30: Ryan Finley for WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GBP

Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack and let’s uncover the next cornerstone players.

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