Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Eight

Peter Howard

Hey all, welcome back to our weekly target share article. Here we look for patterns and trends in the usage and opportunity of each player in the NFL. Last week I released a new adjustment for volume when looking at matchup stats (adjusted target share allowed). I have an update on that data as well as a matchup to watch in week nine to help understand what it may be able to help us with.

I also have a few player notes I think could be important at each position based on their week eight usage.

So let’s dig in.

Matchup to Watch

New England DST VS Mark Andrews, TE BAL

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So, a quick reminder of how aTSA works: By looking at the average change in target share for each position against each defense (theoretically) we can see the effect the defense has on the target share of their opponents (this is the “Opp Change in Target share” column). However since matchup and game script have a lot to do with how targets flow, aTSA also looks at the average target share to each position of their opponents and creates an adjustment based on league average (“TGT% SOS”). This creates the aTSA adjustment (“aTSA adj”.)

The question then is how best to use this adjustment? In the “Predicted TSA” I applied the adjustment to the offense’s target share to the position. In “aTSA” I applied it to the target share allowed by the defense.

Ideally, this kind of stat is worked on during the off-season when I could create a backlog of aTSA allowed and test it to find out whether the defensive tendencies or offensive tendencies matter more and how the stat can best inform us of this week’s matchup. But that’s not where we are. Based on my experience, my instinct is that the offense is going to direct where targets go a lot more than the defense. But this may also be different for each position and defense, creating noise.

New England has encouraged an above-average target share to the wide receiver position – 5.9 percent more than their opponent’s average. But they have also faced teams that have, on average, targeted that position over three percent more than the league when not facing New England. This also reflects the fact that the team has been dominant in their matchups and the opposing teams have had to increase attempts to score and move down the field efficiently.

Enter Mark Andrews and the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have also been dominant this season and have been targeting the TE position 43% of the time (about 23% more than league average). In other words, we have a defense that has encouraged targets to the wide receiver position versus a team that has focused the tight end more than any team New England has faced this season. This may also be the best offense New England has faced since Pittsburgh in week one, depending on how you view the Cleveland Browns. Added to this is the fact that matchup stats are notoriously difficult because of the defense’s ability to change as they alter their strategy for their opponents, something New England is notoriously skilled at.

My assumption is that Andrews, being a better player on a better offense than this defense has seen, will beat the adjusted defensive target share allowed (13 percent) but may well suffer in his efficiency and come in lower than his own target share average (21%). He will suffer in projections because of this imbalance.

This matchup, along with a lot of other individual matchups this season (and more from past seasons) will help me dig into how aTSA. For now, the best I can say is that it may prove to be an interesting matchup to watch this week.

Running Back Targets

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Latavius Murray, RB NO

Last week, Murray reached a level of snap share and target share averaged only by two or three other running backs this season. Without Alvin Kamara, he stepped into 12 targets and over 80% of snaps. With the return of Drew Brees, this offense is trending up as well. Kamara should be back this season, but if he is out again after their bye week, usage suggests he is a must-start, top-12 running back when Kamara is out.

Aaron Jones, RB GB

I’ve been waiting for Jones to be a workhorse back since he entered the league. Needless to say, I’m excited. He is now the third-highest scoring running back on the season and in week eight basically functioned as the team’s lead wide receiver. I think we can feel confident about his usage moving forward, however, the committee still looms.

Despite his mega-production last week, he still only saw a 64% snap share. Snaps are the better predictor of running back points. Dalvin Cook has been flaunting this rule all season, but Cook’s competition is most certainly working in a reserve role. Jamaal Williams, as we know, often functions as the second option in a dual backfield. If you are in a winning position I think you have to grit your teeth and rely on a very talented player continuing to distinguish himself. However, if I’m not sure of my future chances, I might consider trading on Aaron Jones’s value. But be sure to get a lot in return. He could be a league winner this year.

Mark Walton, RB MIA

For the second week in a row, Walton is the lead running back in Miami. For the second week in a row, the team still can’t or won’t (perhaps) allow that to mean much. I think he’s a solid workload based start, but the scoring opportunities in Miami continue to limit his upside, and often his floor.

James White, RB NE

White has one of the safest floors in fantasy football right now and based on his usage, he has some upside. He is second on the team in touches in the red zone (16) and has a 26% target share in that area of the field as well. So far he only has one touchdown on those touches. Regression!

Wide Receiver Changing Targets

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Allen Robinson, WR CHI

Robinson’s target share fell back to his season average in week eight, and his production suffered. As we know, production can often be cyclical and the fact he is maintaining a top 12 target share means that he is due more good games. However, Philadelphia has been discouraging targets the position as a whole based on aTSA. Combine that with the fact Robinson has been overly efficiency on his red-zone targets this year and he may be facing a tough week nine.

Mike Evans, WR TB

So, Tampa Bay has two top-12 wide receivers entering a matchup with the Seahawks who have been involved in a lot of big games this season because Russell Wilson is an efficiency machine. This has placed both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the top five in projections for week nine, and rightfully so. While predicting the “who will go off this week” pattern is a foolish and futile exercise (really, just start both of them in all situations), I do think it’s notable that Evans has been the one seeing an increase in targets over the last three weeks, based on the trend column.

Tyler Boyd, WR CIN

A less dynamic back and forth in the NFL right now has been the exchange of target share between Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate over the last few weeks. Based on the current trend its Boyd’s turn to go over 30% of targets, but the team is on bye. The recent news that Andy Dalton is going to be benched after the bye week is, and it’s hard to believe I’m saying this, probably bad news for the receivers. But Boyd may be one of my favorite long-term outlook dynasty trade targets right now.

Tight End Changes

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Dallas Goedert, TE PHI

The demise and replacement of Zach Ertz may have arrived early. Not really, but Dallas Goedert seems to be emerging as a co-owner of production at the TE position. No longer limited to a touchdown or bust role, he has significantly eaten into the target share Ertz has been enjoying.

Noah Fant, TE DEN

Again, I still don’t think we can hope for much from a rookie tight end. But I can already see a lot of talk this off-season about the positive nature of earning targets. Fant’s target share in the Denver offense has been impressive.

Jack Doyle, TE IND

The Indianapolis Colts suffered some regression last week. That could help some miss that Doyle’s numbers increased to a 12% target share and a four percent increase over the last three games. He’s someone that might be on waiver wires if you need a streamer.

Ryan Griffin, TE NYJ

Yeah, I thought he was still in Houston as well. Over the last three weeks, Ryan Griffin has averaged 12.5% of targets on the New York Jets. I think he is more likely to continue to bounce up and down then become a consistent producer for fantasy however with a coefficient of variation (amount of variance) north of 90%. Still, he does have as many red-zone touches as any Jets wide receiver (three).

Anyway, that’s about all I have time for this week. Hope you are all well on your way to the playoffs.

Here is a link to all of this data for the week.

Good luck in week nine, and I’ll catch you on the other side.

Peter.

@pahowdy

peter howard
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