Cornerstone Report: Week Six
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.
Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.
Last week’s edition can be found here. Also be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
NCAA WEEK SIX
Salvon Ahmed, RB Washington
Quickness and speed have never been questions for Salvon Ahmed. I still recall this lateral cut from his high school film:
UW Commit Salvon Ahmed pic.twitter.com/usHQj38vXI
— LJ⬨ (@block_chane) January 5, 2017
Ahmed showed burst and breakaway speed on last week’s 89-yard touchdown run, though USC cornerback Chris Steele was able to tag him at the goal line.
Salvon Ahmed turned on the JETS as Washington rolled to a nice conference victory!
(Via @Pac12Network)pic.twitter.com/WaWO57m8Pz
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 2, 2019
Ahmed’s 17-153-1 rushing day puts him at 61-399-3 rushing through four games of this season, with 6-46-0 receiving.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
As a speed guy listed at 5’11” and 196 pounds, we like to see this type of involvment in the passing game. Do not expect Ahmed to be a workhorse; his devy ADP in the low 30s among 2020 prospects reflects his anticipated role.
Expect more splash plays throughout this season, but also expect his value to be capped given the quality of the 2020 rookie class and his overall profile. He is my RB15 for 2020.
Ahmed profiles nicely as a later round #ZeroRB option in 2020 rookie drafts. If making a move for him in devy leagues, wait for either a quiet week in-season or the lull between bowl games and the NFL combine, where he will test well and his price will increase. Landing with an elite NFL offense would also give his value a limited bump.
NFL WEEK FIVE
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
Last week we used DLF Data Analytics and multiple metrics to identify Diontae Johnson as the young value receiver to acquire in Pittsburgh over James Washington. Our process proved to be sound – at least a week in – as Johnson produced a 6-77-1 line on six targets.
The DLF Trade Finder already reflects an uptick in value:
10-1-19:
QB Russell Wilson, SEA QB Kyler Murray, ARI, WR Diontae Johnson, PIT for Year 2021 Round 1, TE Ben Watson, NEP TE Ian Thomas, CAR
Bryce Love, RB WAS
The Washington backfield once appeared crowded but now looks wide open. Derrius Guice continues to battle injuries. The team has an inexpensive way out of 34-year old Adrian Peterson’s contract after this season. Chris Thompson is a looming unrestricted free agent, as is Wendell Smallwood, who would not pose a threat even if retained.
Recall that Bryce Love finished second in the 2017 Heisman Trophy voting before his down senior season.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Real-life MFL Trades pulled using the DLF Trade Finder confirm it does not take much to buy you Love:
9-29-19: RB Bryce Love, WAS + Year 2020 Round 4 for RB Tarik Cohen, CHI
9-26-19: RB Bryce Love, WAS for Year 2021 Round 5
9-25-19: RB Bryce Love, WAS for Year 2021 Round 3
9-22-19: RB Bryce Love, WAS for RB Carlos Hyde, HOU
Love’s ADP is typical for players with season ending injuries. It has fallen 26 spots since August (and nearly four rounds since rookie drafts), but what about his profile justifies such a move? If anything, Guice’s injury and Peterson’s ineffectiveness justify a move upward.
The cyclicality of dynasty football is sometimes predictable. Expect Love’s value to climb in December and continue to rise until next pre-season.
Additionally, Love is not included in the top-65 of the DLF Cornerstone Rankings, which combine the 2018 through 2020 rookie classes. This further suggests that the dynasty community has essentially either forgotten about Love or discarded him.
We like to see multiple resources sending the same message of a player’s value. Prospect profile, average draft position, recent trades and industry rankings all suggest that Bryce Love is a player to target in dynasty leagues.
It can be difficult to trade for players stashed on the injured reserve portion of a roster. Dynasty players are content to hold lottery tickets rather than sell at a discount. An approach that may work when trading for Love may therefore be packaging him with another player in order to hide your true target.
Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack and let’s uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
