Rookie Report Card: David Montgomery and Hunter Renfrow
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2019 potential and long term upside.
The series continues this week as we shine the light on rookies David Montgomery and Hunter Renfrow.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Week Eight Stats: 27 carries, 135 yards, one touchdown, four receptions, 12 receiving yards (five targets)
Despite a heavy workload in college (573 touches in his final two years), a rather slow 40-yard dash (4.63) and questions about his burst and breakaway speed, David Montgomery was one of the most sought after players in dynasty rookie drafts throughout the summer. Considering the amount of production he churned out while at Iowa State, it was a surprise to few that he was a top-five pick in most rookie drafts.
After his three seasons as a Cyclone – where he ran for nearly 3,000 yards and scored 26 touchdowns – Montgomery profiled as a slashing, between the tackles runner with good vision. Known for sliding into running lanes and using well-timed hesitations to allow blocks to develop as well as a powerful running style which he used to break tackles at the first and second level, he appeared ready to handle a heavy first and second down workload on Sundays. Those running chops along with above-average hands for a running back (he had 71 catches as ISU) had many dynasty owners hoping he had three-down upside in the NFL.
When Montgomery landed with the Bears in the third round of the NFL draft, some of that buzz subsided. After all, Tarik Cohen is one of the premier pass-catching running backs in the league. Nevertheless, Montgomery stayed near the top of rookie draft boards.
The opening two months of Montgomery’s career have been up and down – but mostly down. Entering week eight averaging just 3.25 yards per carry and ranking among the league’s worst in yards created per attempt and evaded tacklers according to the advanced running back efficiency metrics at fantasydata.com, he wasn’t getting more than what was blocked for him. Even worse, his usage was incredibly inconsistent as he had weekly touch counts of 19, 16, 24 and 12 sandwiched between games where he logged just seven and four touches.
All of those things changed in week eight against the Chargers, however.
Carrying the ball 27 times for 135 yards and a touchdown while also hauling in four balls for 12 yards, the Bears’ offense went through Montgomery and he didn’t disappoint.
Although his afternoon included an explosive 12-yard run off left tackle, a 55-yard burst up the middle and an impressive four-yard touchdown off right tackle that featured a nice cutback to elude linebacker Thomas Davis, the lasting image coming out of Sunday’s breakout performance from Montgomery is his drive and determination to make the first tackler miss. There were multiple times on Sunday that he’d meet a tackler in the hole, bounce off, churn his legs and fall forward for positive yardage – a few times giving the Bears a first down that they wouldn’t have had if not for the rookie’s determined running. He was without a doubt getting more than what was blocked.
Montgomery’s showing on Sunday was easily his best of his young career. He showed quick decision making and a physical running style much like that of Seattle running back Chris Carson. With that all said however, he was also caught from behind on that breakaway 55-yard run at the end of the first half despite being untouched and having a big head start on safety Rayshawn Jenkins. Remember, that lack of breakaway speed was a rather big weakness of his during draft season.
Overall, Montgomery appears to be exactly what we thought he was coming out of Iowa State. He’s a good, powerful runner between the tackles with the ability to get the corner from time to time and contribute in the passing game if asked to do so. I have no doubt he’s capable of being a three-down running back with RB1 upside. I don’t, however, think he’s an elite tailback in the league and he shouldn’t be treated as such by dynasty owners.
Currently going as the RB18 according to DLF ADP, he’s properly valued. If that ADP starts to jump inside the RB2 range because of this big game or a string of big games with the likes of the Eagles and Lions up next on the schedule – both of which ranking in the bottom-10 in fantasy point given up to running backs – I’d consider selling Montgomery. As for right now, however, he’s a solid hold as a young RB2.
Hunter Renfrow, WR OAK
Week Eight Stats: Four receptions, 88 yards, one touchdown (four targets)
Known by many as a “gamer” or “incredibly smart” or “the ultimate competitor” when he was coming out of Clemson, Hunter Renfrow should have been seen as exactly what he is – a very good college wide receiver with NFL and fantasy PPR upside.
Showcasing savvy route running and efficient footwork out of the slot throughout his college career, Renfrow profiled as a short to intermediate target with excellent hands and great field awareness to create subtle separation and find openings in zone coverage. Of course, it didn’t hurt that he was as clutch as they come either as he dazzled in back-to-back National Title games against Alabama – catching 17 passes for 180 yards and four touchdowns in those games.
Although many felt coming out of college that his lack of size (5’-10”, 189 pounds) and speed (4.59 40-yard dash) would keep him from making an impact in the NFL, Renfrow‘s ability to change directions in a blink and his incredible feel for finding the weakness in the defense created a bit of a cult following in the dynasty community – as he was considered by many to be a steal in the fourth or even fifth round of rookie drafts.
After landing in Oakland in the fifth round of the NFL draft, which was seen by most as a good place for him considering they didn’t have an established slot receiver, Renfrow has slowly worked his way into a role in the offense. After playing just 27% of the Raiders snaps in week one, he’s played 56.5% of snaps since.
Renfrow’s biggest game of his rookie season came in week eight against the Texans where he hauled in all four of his targets for 88 yards and his first career touchdown – a 65-yarder that came on a slant. On the play, he set up his defender (who was in off coverage) with a sharp jab step to the outside before cutting inside, catching the pass and breaking a tackle attempt from the safety on the way to the end zone.
Outside of that big play, Renfrow caught three passes for 23 yards – which is in line with the 2.33 catch, 19.2 yard per game average he posted over his first six NFL games – but that shouldn’t deter dynasty owners.
Despite posting light numbers to this point in his rookie season and having little value as a rookie, Renfrow has long-term PPR upside as a WR3/4. With a little experience to help slow things down for him and if he finds his way into a quality offense, he could be a startable asset down the road. Dynasty owners in deep leagues should continue to be patient. There are glimpses of Brandon Stokley in the young Raider.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
