Twitter Observations: Week Eight

Michael Moore

Well, we’re halfway home. Between your record, points, potential points, you should have a good idea of where you’re team sits. If you’re a contender, you’re looking for that last (reasonably-priced) piece. If you’re rebuilding, you want to unload every player who has the slightest value and isn’t in your plans for next year. Below are a few players who should be on the move one way or the either.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Loose Keenan

While Keenan Allen has nothing to apologize for (he still managed 12 fantasy points in PPR leagues this week), he has been on a bit of cold streak lately. He’s failed to top 61 yards receiving in his last five games and hasn’t scored in that span. It’s especially disappointing when you consider his torrid three-game stretch to start the season where he had over 400 yards on 29 catches and three scores.

What’s the cause of the cool off? The chatter this season surrounds quarterback Philip Rivers and if he’s reached a wall in his career. Granted, we’re halfway through the season and Rivers is (again) on pace for over 4,000 yards and his completion percentage and yards-per-attempt are all in-line with his career averages. But he’s also on pace for just 24 touchdowns which would be his lowest total since 2007. Each quarterback is different and there have been several that have played at a high level into their late 30’s. But it’s not a slam dunk that Rivers will join them.

Dynasty Impact: Currently a top-ten dynasty receiver in our rankings, Allen is also tied for one of the oldest. Couple that with the fact that the Chargers are quickly heading to the bottom of the standings at 2-6 and they seemingly have no post-Philip Rivers plan. I may look to sell Allen to a contender before he’s tied to a truly bad situation and it’s too late to trade him.

Time’s Up

Our first clue that Jameis Winston may not belong in Tampa Bay is when they chose not to sign him long term last year. That move is looking prescient as Winston is having the worst statistical year of his career as he enters free agency. Yes, he’s on pace for a career-high in touchdowns but he’s also on pace to obliterate his previous high in interceptions, where he currently has 12, along with three lost fumbles on the season.

And while the verdict on Winston has been determined for a while, the bigger question was how it affected the very talented receivers at his disposal. Dynasty stud Mike Evans and promising newcomer Chris Godwin were still being expected to produce fantasy points no matter who the quarterback is. Luckily, Tampa threw them both a lifeline and hired offensive guru Bruce Arians to salvage their value which has led both to top-five fantasy rankings this year despite the poor play of Winston.

Dynasty Impact: Winston will have little-to-no value going forward, especially in one-QB dynasty leagues, but the sky-high values of Evans and Godwin are what’s at stake. Both are currently ranked in the top ten in our rankings which should be their peak as long as they both play in the same town. Likewise, they shouldn’t drop either as long as Arians is the coach. It remains to be seen if Tampa gets their next signal-caller through the draft or free agency but whichever way, it will be blessed by Arians. I certainly wouldn’t sell either receiver as their production shouldn’t be dropping off anytime soon.

Leonard Me Your Ear

Friends, Romans, fellow fantasy players: Leonard Fournette is good. The Jags knew this when they took him fourth overall three years ago and while you can argue the intelligence of that particular decision, you can’t argue that Fournette is producing now. He’s currently a top-five fantasy back averaging nearly five yards-per-carry and nearly 100 yards-per-game. He’s also (finally) doing work in the passing game with his 35 catches for 263 yards nearly matching season-long career-highs through only eight games this season. Of course, it helps to have future Hall-of-Famer* Gardner Minshew at quarterback instead of Blake Bortles.

*Hall of Fame induction still TBD

Dynasty Impact: Fournette isn’t going anywhere soon but as much as it pains me, I would look to sell especially if you’re rebuilding. Running backs just don’t have the staying power that other positions do. They’re so fragile which, in turn, makes them cheap which makes them expendable. Sure, Fournette is a top ten dynasty running back right now but if you’re re-building, presumably you’re looking at a two-three year window. You know which backs were top-ten dynasty running backs three years ago? The list includes Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, and DeMarco Murray. And sure, there are receivers who were that highly rated then too who aren’t now but they’re retired. They didn’t lose their jobs or get cut or lose their roles like the stellar list mentioned here.

Zach the Wrong Horse

This is a development many saw coming. Ever since the Eagles used a top-50 pick on Dallas Goedert last year, the dynasty community collectively assumed Zach Ertz was on his way out. His contract prevented that so far but it provided the perfect cover to give Goedert a few seasons of work before turning the reigns over. Ertz does have a lot of dead money next year but the Eagles could presumably find a suitable trade partner. Either way, the ascension of Goeddert plus his cheap contract plus Ertz’s contract have created a perfect storm for the Eagles to move on.

Dynasty Impact: I would absolutely be looking to sell Ertz if I’m a contender or rebuilding. He will never rank higher than his current fourth-place spot and he’s one of the oldest in the top ten. Goedert, meanwhile, is outside the top ten. I would target him now before his ranking jumps.

michael moore