Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Seven
I had some computer issues this week and I ended up not having access to a computer for a day. To make up for being late this week, I ground out a stat I hate calculating. To start with, I think matchups can be overrated and it can lead us astray. But the main reason I don’t like it is it’s a terror to try and line up the data and calculate. But for you, I sucked it up.
I have calculated the target share allowed for position against each defense in 2019. I have then adjusted the numbers based on the change each defense has to create in their opponents this year and the average target share each position has held.
In other words, I made Adjusted Target Share Allowed and lined it up with each matchup every player is facing in week eight.
I’ve included the entire results in the link to this week’s data at the end of the article. All the data I’m using, including target share and aTSA, is from 4for4.com.
Let’s go.
Adjusted Target Share Allowed
To demonstrate how it works, here are the top five receiving matchups for running backs in the NFL right now according to Adjusted Target Share Allowed (aTSA).
You can see the change in target share, on average, that defenses have caused in their opponents this year. Next, you can see the adjustments based on the target share each opponent has been feeding their offense and finally the aTSA adjustment.
This means that the Rams, Cardinals, Patriots, Packers and Buccaneers all face matchups that have, so far, been encouraging passes to the running back position. This is adjusted by how the offenses they have faced have preferred that position.
This method turns up some curiosities based on a seven-game sample. Take, for example, the top five wide receiver matchups this week.
The Vikings are not a defense we think about as “a good matchup”. As we have already seen on Thursday night, it certainly did not prove to be for Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins. However, based on 4for4.com’s Adjust Fantasy Points Allowed metric, we also know it’s given up about 25.8 PR points this season, ranking them 25th-worst in the NFL against the position.
After facing the Raiders (TE), Bears (RB), the Giants (TE), and the Eagles (TE) in four of their seven games this season, they have only face two offenses that focus the position especially. Combine this with the fact teams have adjusted their targets towards the wide receiver position, on average, by two percent when facing them and that creates a sneaky good matchup for wide receiver volume.
Perhaps the biggest surprise I found was at the tight end position.
The Cardinals, the most giving of matchups for tight ends this year, ranked 18th in aTSA. While the team has given up plenty of efficiency to the position, it has also faced teams that focus the position. Their opponents have targeted tight ends four percent more than league average when not facing the Cardinals. In other words, higher volume TEs were scoring points against them efficiently. This doesn’t mean it’s not a good matchup but that it’s unlikely to provide an especially big increase in volume.
On the other hand, the Giants have faced teams who target the position five percent less than league average and have still encouraged a two percent rise in target share in their opponents. While I still have a strong aversion to rookie tight ends, this could create a volume boost for TJ Hockenson in week eight.
Greg Olsen, Austin Hooper, and Jonnu Smith all face similar positive volume situations this week.
Volume Leaders
I hope you can find some use for aTSA in the coming weeks. In the meantime, here are the target share leaders coming into week eight.
I’ve included a “trend” column this week to show how players’ target shares have changed over the last three weeks compared to their season-long numbers.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
After a return to production in week seven, Hopkins again faces a solid matchup that has given up five percent more targets to the position than league average per aTSA. UDud also thinks he has a way to go before his numbers stop promising regression.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN
The 14 targets last week help to justify the process in starting Tyler Boyd. Yeah, that doesn’t make me feel any better about it either. But he’s still a top 12 player at the position in terms of volume. Now’s a good time to try and buy low on Boyd especially if the matchup with the Rams (a difficult one according to aTSA) pushes his cost down further.
Allen Robinson, WR CHI
He looks good on the field, and his volume reflects that. One day Robinson will get a positive situation… one day. In the meantime, I’m happy to keep betting on his volume and buy him in dynasty if anyone is scared off by the horror show that is the Bears offense.
Running Back Risers
Benny Snell, RB PIT
He’s not much of a pass catcher but coming off a bye, Jalen Samuels still sounds likely to miss time. James Conner is nursing his own injury as well. Snell is a decent late-season stash for those thinking about their playoffs already.
Chase Edmonds, RB ARI
Probably a little late to suggest buying Chase Edmonds, right? His workload is very good even in this small sample. If David Johnson keeps staying off the field (active or not) there isn’t much stopping Edmonds form being a league winner
TJ Yeldon, RB BUF
I know, I know “It’s Devin Singletary season!” but I haven’t seen him overcome the ghost of Frank Gore yet. While that may be because of injury alone, I think keeping an eye on Yeldon or stashing him in deeper leagues isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Mark Walton, RB MIA
No one seems to care that Walton took over the Miami backfield last week. Granted I wouldn’t be excited to own a Miami player right now either. But that discount itself is tempting. Just when Kenyan Drake‘s workload had become stable! And there’s the rub. A bad team’s usage can often be more volatile. I’m mostly not sweating it if I didn’t win the waiver wire roulette to get him on my teams.
Trade notes
I don’t want to make a lot of drawn-out observations about the trades that went down this week in the NFL.
Anyone who has been reading this column already knew that Courtland Sutton has done great things this year. Speculation that he may get more with the loss of Emmanuel Sanders seems… late, to say the least. I mean, he already had all the targets. If anything I’m more worried about the loss of Sanders and how that hurts the offense and Sutton’s access to scoring opportunities.
Hope you bought high. But keep buying. We should want both DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton so much it hurts in dynasty.
I’m a fan of Mohammed Sanu as an NFL player and an underrated dynasty asset. But he hasn’t seen a target share over 18% this year more than once. I do think this could be more of a positive for those left behind, however – especially for Calvin Ridley. If nothing else, Ridley has been a touchdown-dependent player so far and even one or two targets can really make a difference in the red zone.
Okay, that’s all for this week. Thanks for sticking it out and I hope I caught you before you made your final start/sit decisions.
Thanks again,
Peter.
@pahowdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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