DraftKings Bargains: Week Eight

Bruce Matson Posted On October 26, 2019

Sometimes it’s hard to pinpoint the right bargains on DraftKings or any other DFS platform. Every week, there’s a player or two who will exceed expectations and wasn’t on anybody’s radar. Those are the players we want to get on our rosters because they will create a competitive advantage from the rest of the field. This is easier said than done. By analyzing the cheap prospects on this week’s slate, we can gather some ideas of how we want to structure our lineups.

Let’s take a look at some of the top bargains on DraftKings for this week:

QUARTERBACK

Matt Stafford, DET $6,100

The Lions will be hosting the New York Giants this week. Vegas has the over/under set at 49.5 points and Detroit is favored to win by 6.5 points. The team won’t be able to rely on Kerryon Johnson because he will be out with a knee injury. This should cause the Lions to lean on the passing game since they won’t have their starting running back to carry the rock.

Stafford leads the league with 41 pass attempts of 20 yards or more. He likes to push the ball downfield which can lead to fantasy points if he can connect with receivers. His 2,242 air yards ranks seventh among quarterbacks. Stafford is also dropping back 40 times per game. With that being said, he has the potential to finish the week as a QB1 just on passing volume alone.

This is a very favorable matchup for Stafford. The Giants’ defense struggles at stopping the pass. Considering they have allowed 1,323 yards to wide receivers this year, they are going to have trouble preventing Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones from dissecting their secondary.

The ownership rates at quarterback should get distributed amongst some of the higher-priced quarterbacks which could allow Stafford to be a lower owned option. There are some cheaper options you can plug in at quarterback but none of them provide the floor and the ceiling that Stafford provides.

Other options: Derek Carr $5,000, Daniel Jones $5,800, Josh Allen $6,500

RUNNING BACK

Latavius Murray, NO $5,800

Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury. He was sidelined during Wednesday’s practice. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t play on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. Even if he does play, Sean Payton might limit his usage to prevent any additional wear and tear on Kamara’s body. After all, next week is their bye week and the extra rest and recovery time would allow him to potentially finish the last leg of the season strong.

Murray is a bargain at his listed salary. He will deliver RB1 results if Kamara is out of the lineup. Per Pro Football Outsiders, Arizona leads the league with 24.61 plays ran per second. The Saints will want to neutralize the Cardinals’ fast-paced offense by methodically controlling the pace of the game. They will rely on the run and Teddy Bridgewater will utilize Michael Thomas to move the chains when needed. The game script should be in Murray’s favor, allowing him to see plenty of opportunities to make things happen.

Looking at this from a contrarian standpoint, we want Kamara to play on Sunday because it will drive down Murray’s ownership rate for GPP contests. Murray should see a larger touch share since the Saints want to prevent Kamara from having any setbacks. If Kamara sits out, then Murray will be a very chalky play which is great for cash but not optimal in GPP.

Vegas has the over/under at 49 points for this game and they have the Saints as 10.5-point favorites. This is projected to be the third highest-scoring game of the week and the Saints are one of four teams who are projected to win by a double-digit margin. The game script should favor the run, creating additional opportunities for Murray to smash this week.

Other options: Ronald Jones $4,300, Ty Johnson $4,900, James White $5,100

WIDE RECEIVER

AJ Brown, TEN ($4,100)

Brown caught six for his eight targets last week with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. So far on the season has received 22.2 percent share of the red-zone targets. Delanie Walker who owns 27.8 percent of the team’s red-zone targets is dealing with an ankle injury and may not be able to play against the Buccaneers which could allow Brown to see additional opportunities in the red zone.

It’s hard to believe but Tannehill might have ignited a spark into the offense. If anything, he’s definitely doing a better job at targeting his top receivers, Brown and Corey Davis. Both of them combined for 15 targets last week and together owned a 50 percent share of the passing targets. I know it’s a small sample size, but the wide receivers in Tennessee might actually establish some consistent fantasy production.

The Buccaneers are bad at covering the pass, allow 1,223 yards to wide receivers. Even though the Titans have a low volume passing offense, this is a matchup they can exploit. Vegas has the over/under set at 45.5 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown has a breakout game this week. He should see a sizable target share which might be enough to elevate his fantasy production.

His price point makes him a can’t-miss play. He provides enough salary relief to allow you to roster multiple stud running backs. The majority of DFS players will target Corey Davis instead of Brown, because he managed to find the end zone last week, making Brown a viable contrarian option. If this game turns into a shootout, then Brown might break the slate, especially if he reaches the end zone.

Other options: Kenny Stills $4,700, DK Metcalf $5,000, Courtland Sutton $5,300

TIGHT END

Noah Fant, DEN $2,900

Tight end is the toughest position to project. If you want to play it safe, then invest in the higher-priced tight ends like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Austin Hooper and Evan Engram. However, if you want to save some of your salary and minimize the risk of getting hit by the week to week variance from the tight end position, then you might want to take a look at Fant.

He has been very disappointing this season. He has caught four passes for 29 yards in the last three weeks. We might see an increase in targets in the near future since the team traded away Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers. Some of those targets might get funneled to Fant and the extra workload might be enough to make him fantasy relevant.

Even if he doesn’t break out, he will still provide value to your roster because his cheap price tag will allow you to spend more at other positions. It’s easier to predict the production for running backs and wide receivers, so it makes more sense to spend more of your salary on those positions.

Fant is a risky investment. Limiting your exposure to him might be the best practice. We only want to use him as a cheap contrarian option at tight end. He should be sprinkled in a few GPP lineups. Stay away from him if you are planning on creating just a couple of lineups. He’s is not a player you want to go all-in on.

Other options: Eric Ebron $3,400, Gerald Everett $4,300, Darren Waller $5,900

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.