Devy Stock Market

Nathan Powell

The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.

Dillon and Bailey Circus Parades Over NC State – AJ Dillon and David Bailey, RB Boston College

AJ Dillon entered the season as one of the top running backs in college football. The manor concern has kept him from the top tier of devy rankings was his size at 6’0 250 pounds. Dillon ran for 2,697 yards in first two seasons with 24 touchdowns, but the concern for many is if his size will allow him to have NFL speed. However, his size is one of the key parts of his game, allowing him to be a workhorse back who has averaged 25 carries per game while maintaining a 5.4 yards per carry, with a yards per carry over five in five of seven games.

After two sub-100 yard performances in the first two weeks, Dillon has five straight 100-yard performances, with four of those five going over 150 yards, including 223 rushing yards and three touchdowns against NC State last week. Dillon will likely be a day two running back in the 2020 NFL draft and a mid-late first-round pick in traditional rookie drafts in a very deep running back class.

Alongside Dillon is the back likely to be in the team’s RB1 role in 2020, David Bailey. Bailey is another big back at 6’1” and 240 pounds. Bailey had the most productive game of his career last weekend, rushing for 181 yards and two touchdowns with 11.3 yards per carry. Like Dillon, Bailey may get overlooked by some due to his size and perceived lack of speed, he will be a nice value in devy drafts next off-season for a player with workhorse size, ability and opportunity with Dillon likely gone.

For Whom, The Bell Tolls – David Bell, WR Purdue

Last year, Purdue produced freshman sensation Rondale Moore, who continues to be one of the best wide receivers in college football this season. The Boilermakers have struck gold again at the wide receiver position with freshman David Bell. The 6’3” 210-pound wide receiver has put up good numbers as a freshman, posting 635 receiving yards with four touchdowns with 16.3 yards per catch.

Bell has over 100 receiving yards in three of the last four games, averaging 126 yards per game over that span. Bell had the biggest game of his career thus far last week with 13 catches for 197 receiving yards and one touchdown at Iowa. If this success continues, which I expect it to, Bell will be a top pick in devy drafts this off-season like Moore was last off-season.

The Year of The Transfer – Shane Buechele, QB SMU

With the lightning of transfer rules across college football, the quarterback position in college football is looking more like free agency, which is leading a number of successful transfer stories, something that was much rarer in the past. This year includes success from Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and this week’s stock up, Shane Buechele.

Buechele spent two years as a starter at Texas with limited success, sporting a low A/YA of 7.4 and 6.4 in his two seasons as a starter. In 2018, he was usurped by Sam Ehlinger after two games, leading Buechele sitting out in order to be eligible for immediate transfer. In 2019, Buechele has become a different quarterback in his new home at SMU. He has multiple passing touchdowns in each of his last six games, highlighted by 457 passing yards and six touchdowns against Temple. Buechele has an 8.8 A/YA on the season with an 18-6 touchdown-interception ratio.

While Buechele is draft-eligible, it would be surprising to see him leave early, so Buechele will be one of my favorite late-round candidates in deep superflex devy leagues.

Digging Into Davis – Gabriel Davis, WR UCF

Gabriel Davis has been one of the most productive wide receivers in college football this season. Davis is currently fourth in Division 1 in receiving yards with 833. Davis has improved in each category: receiving yards/yards per catch/receiving touchdowns in each season of his career and is only seven catches away from surpassing his 2018 catch total of 53.

Davis has had an incredible stretch in his last four games, averaging nine catches for 151 receiving yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game over that span. This season, Davis has accounted for 35% of the UCF receiving yards and ten of the team’s 22 receiving touchdowns. Davis is draft-eligible, and if he enters, he will be one of the best wide receivers available in rookie drafts in devy leagues. At 6’3 212 pounds, Davis is a good Combine away from being a locked-in day two NFL draft pick with his production in 2019.

Master Plan – Master Teague, RB Ohio State

Master Teague showed some flashes in limited action in his true freshman season, rushing for 106 yards on 16 carries. The number eight running back in the class of 2018 per Rivals, Teague has become a much bigger part of the Ohio State offense in 2019. He has run for 512 yards in seven games, getting ten or more carries in five of the seven games as the RB2 behind JK Dobbins. Teague has shown why he should be the Ohio State RB1 when Dobbins leaves in the 2020 NFL draft.

Teague is averaging 7.0 yards per carry with 90 or more rushing yards in three of seven games, including averaging 9.4 yards per carry in those three games. Teague is owned in many devy leagues already and I think he’s a buy candidate all the way up until Dobbins leaves. Despite his good start to the season, now is still the time to buy as he still has the “Ohio State RB2” label. Once Dobbins leaves and he no longer has that label and looks to be the 2020 Ohio State RB1, his price will rise significantly.

Teague will also have the benefit of another year in the offense with Justin Fields, who won’t be draft-eligible until 2021. Being the RB1 in a Justin Fields Ohio State offense is going to be a very productive role in 2020, which could help Teague get drafted as high as the first round of the NFL draft.

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