DraftKings Bargains: Week Seven
As we get farther into the season, the salaries on DraftKings get tighter, making it harder to find bargains for our lineups. We must be willing to take some risks in order to maximize our bankrolls. Successfully predicting outcomes to games can provide an edge to choosing the right players for your lineups. If you hit on the right matchup, then you can draw from two or three players from that game to be key contributors to your lineup.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some of the bargain plays for week seven:
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Tannehill, TEN ($4,800)
For the majority of my lineups, I’m leaning on the higher-priced quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and a few others. There are a few bargain quarterbacks who I’m willing to experiment with and one of those quarterbacks is Ryan Tannehill.
DraftKings has him priced as the QB28 this week. His low cheap price tag will allow you to spend more of your bankroll at other positions. Even with him starting at quarterback, the Titans should still implement a run-heavy offense. We just need him to produce QB2 level results, anything more would be the icing on the cake. His price tag is the reason why we want to roster him.
Vegas has the over/under set at 41 total points. Our expectations should be tempered for this game. We shouldn’t expect a shootout. Tennessee is favored to win by 2.5 points. If this game hits the over it shouldn’t be by much. Again, we are using a Tannehill as a bridge to roster a few higher-priced players at other positions.
He could be paired with either Corey Davis or AJ Brown for a cheap stack. If he does exceed expectations and breaks the slate then one of those two receivers will breakout. Davis is priced at $4,000 and Brown has a salary of just $3,800, so you’re not going to break your wallet trying to stack either one of them with Tannehill. The savings from this stack could allow you to roster multiple stud running backs.
There’s some risk associated with Tannehill. Only use him in GPP formats and stay away from him in cash games. Limit your exposure to him. Just sprinkle him into a few lineups to break up the monotony. Also, if you are planning to enter just a few lineups then you might want to pivot to more stable options. Tannehill isn’t a must-get player, but he’s should be an option for DFS players who are looking to submit multiple lineups.
Other options: Carson Wentz $6,000, Dak Prescott $6,200, Matt Ryan $6,300
RUNNING BACK
Leonard Fournette, JAC ($7,000)
When utilized in the right context, Fournette is a bargain this week. DraftKings has him valued as the RB7 in terms of salary. From a pure price perspective, $7,000 seems like a high price tag, but when compared to the other high-end workhorse running backs on the slate, Fournette is going for a considerable discount. Fournette is $1,900 less in salary when compared to Saquon Barkley who is DraftKings’ highest-priced running back. He has the potential to match or exceed Barkley in points scored this week while allowing you more wiggle room to pay-up for other positions.
The Jaguars will be traveling to play a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team. The Bengals are tied with the Houston Texans with a league-leading 402 receiving yards allowed to running backs. Opposing running backs are posting a 26.78 percent receiving share against the Bengals defense. Fournette’s heavy usage in the passing game should bode well in this matchup. He ranks seventh among running backs with 36 targets and eighth with an 18 percent target share.
Pro Football Focus graded Cincinnati as the fifth-worst run defense in the league. Their defense also ranks 31st in the league with a 19.3 percent DVOA. Fournette has been on point running the football this year, averaging 3.98 yards after contact per attempt. The Jaguars will likely count on him to keep the chains moving since 13.04 percent of his runs go for ten yards or more.
Vegas has a 44 point over/under for this game and they have the Jaguars slated as 3.5-point favorites. Though the implied point total is low, Fournette’s workload should fuel his production. He has the potential to lead all running backs in scoring this week.
Other options: Melvin Gordon $5,900, Marlon Mack $6,000, Le’Veon Bell $6,000
WIDE RECEIVER
DK Metcalf, SEA ($4,800)
The Seahawks will be defending their territory at home against the Baltimore Ravens. Vegas has the over/under set for this game at 49 points and they also have the Seahawks favored by three points. This game should be high scoring and should fuel a few top fantasy scorers.
Baltimore is dealing with a lot of injuries in their secondary. Deshon Smith and Tony Jefferson have been placed on injured reserve and Jimmy Smith has been recently battling a knee injury that should keep him out of the lineup against Seattle. Marcus Peters is a solid addition to the secondary but his play is very volatile and it’s hard to predict his impact from a week to week basis.
The Ravens hold a reputation of having a very tough defense. The field is more than likely going to pivot away from Seattle’s passing game due to this notion which could provide opportunities for DFS players to roster contrarian options in advantageous situations.
32.26 percent of Metcalf’s targets went for 20 yards or more and he brought in ten of those deep targets. It’s apparent that Russell Wilson likes to target him downfield and that trend should continue throughout the season. He leads the team with 467 air yards and is averaging an astounding 15.1 average depth of target.
Between weeks three and five, Will Dissly owned a 19 percent share of Seattle’s passing targets. From a counting stat perspective, that’s 19 targets over a three-game span. He is now out for the season with an Achilles injury. This will cause Dissly’s targets to get funneled to Metcalf and other pass catchers in the offense.
Don’t be surprised if Metcalf sees an uptick in targets. Jaron Brown, who has a salary of $3,700 on DraftKings, is another pass catcher who should see an increase in targets. In the last two weeks, Brown has received nine targets. There’s a piece of the pie that’s up for grabs and the crumbs from that part of the pie might get dispersed to multiple players.
DraftKings has Metcalf valued as WR41 in their list of salaries. Considering the matchup, the volume of targets and his average depth of target, Metcalf is an explosion waiting to happen. He’s a player you don’t want to be overly exposed too, but you need to have him in some lineups because he’s a threat to break out every single week.
Other options: Robert Woods $5,900, DJ Chark $6,000, Larry Fitzgerald $6,1000
TIGHT END
Dawson Knox, BUF ($3,300)
Tyler Kroft is expected to be back this week for the Bills. This news should make me want to pivot away from Knox, but I’m still going to the well. He is priced at $3,300, making him dirt cheap. His snap rate and his role in the passing game are increasing by the week. Kroft could see some opportunity but Knox should be the team’s main pass-catching option at tight end.
Zay Jones is gone which should allow some extra targets to be distributed to Knox and to some other pass catchers on the team. As we get farther into the season, he should develop into more of a focal point in the offense. He’s not a guy we should pay a premium for in dynasty, but in DFS, he’s a tight end we should consider whenever he’s playing in a favorable matchup.
The Bills will be playing the Miami Dolphins at home. Vegas has the over/under set at 41 points. Buffalo should easily win this game and Knox should benefit from the easy matchup. The Dolphins have allowed 338 yards to tight ends this season which is the eighth-highest in the league.
The tight end position generally carries a lot of volatility from week to week. It’s literally the hardest position to predict. Knox’s cheap price tag takes away some of the gamble and allows you to funnel some of your bankroll in other positions.
Other options: Gerald Everett $3,700, Jason Witten $3,700, Darren Waller $4,700
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