Cornerstone Report: Week Eight
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.
Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.
Last week’s edition can be found here. Also be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
NCAA WEEK EIGHT
CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
Lamb is in the conversation as the 2020 rookie WR1. He projects as the 1.05 rookie pick, up from the end of round one this off-season.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
Listed at 6’2”, Lamb has the lateral agility, short area quickness and explosion of someone much smaller. On a team full of exceptional athletes, it is Lamb who gets punt return duties (13-110-0 on the year).
His quickness is rare for someone of his size. Add the strength that comes with his stature and you get highlight plays like this.
CeeDee Lamb. My goodness. pic.twitter.com/UWMZ8gqp7F
— Max Olson (@max_olson) October 12, 2019
Still just 20 years old, Lamb brings both agility and size to today’s NFL, which values separation and yards after the catch.
He sits at sixth in the DLF devy rankings, second to Jerry Jeudy among 2020 wide receivers. He comes in at 11th in the DLF cornerstone rankings, which combine players from the 2018 through 2020 draft classes. This implies a rookie value as the 1.05 pick and WR2.
Zack Moss, RB Utah
From a projected first round NFL and dynasty rookie pick in Lamb, we shift to a deeper value pick in Zack Moss.
While ultra-athletic backs such as D’Andre Swift and Cam Akers headline the 2020 class, Moss succeeds using adequate athleticism and a solid understanding of scheme.
We expect backs listed at 5’10” and 222 pounds to run with good power. Moss is plenty capable.
Zack Moss with the truck stick! 😤
(Via @Pac12Network)pic.twitter.com/GtFv0ylsYd
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 7, 2019
And though I would not list speed among his top five attributes, he shows the ability to finish long runs.
Zack Moss making it look easy early.
Midway through the first quarter and he’s already got 115 yards. Reeling off 91 yarders sure helps.#Utes pic.twitter.com/MgbS4Jd8HD
— Porter Larsen (@Larsen_ESPN) October 13, 2019
He has an advanced understanding of setting up defenders and staying within the structure of a given play. He is a smart runner who works within his physical limitations to maximize his blockers. However, he can still make defenders miss, either by running over or around them, and he does have the athleticism to play in the NFL.
https://twitter.com/lifesyourcup/status/1057872721701294080
Moss is an under the radar prospect in a draft class that has been touted for years. He is ranked 53rd in the DLF devy rankings (32nd among 2020 prospects). He fits the profile of a later round #ZeroRB option (surpassing the 20-reception threshold as a sophomore) in rookie drafts.
I expect his cost to remain low. Two-plus years of production have not boosted it. His testing at the NFL combine should not give it a big boost, nor should his NFL draft stock (I project him as a day three pick). No need, therefore, to rush and buy low, but do not hesitate to acquire him within the context of a roster stash or ZeroRB option.
NFL WEEK SEVEN
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
In June, I used Kliff Kingsbury’s college history to forecast the 2019 Arizona Cardinals offense. At a high level it was spot-on, but let’s focus specifically on fantasy’s QB7 through six weeks, Kyler Murray.
We see why Murray is special in the first three plays of this week six compilation. The first play demonstrates downfield accuracy. Murray drops the ball in the bucket from the far hash, 35 yards to the opposite sideline. The second play shows elusiveness but, more importantly, pocket presence to keep his eyes downfield and deliver a 20-yard strike to the middle of the field. This is rare composure for a rookie making his sixth career start. The third play exhibits arm strength and more deep accuracy with a ball that travels 50 yards in the air.
27-of-37
340 passing yards
3 touchdowns@K1 was at it again. pic.twitter.com/5rKqsFJaVS— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 14, 2019
Murray was an elite prospect fully deserving of the first overall selection in the NFL draft. Back in May, I noted that he was the most efficient (measured by adjusted yards per attempt) college quarterback to be selected in the top half of the NFL draft within the last ten years.
A dynasty player can have all the talent in the world but it can be rendered meaningless if scheme and offensive philosophy do not promote production.
In the June preview, I noted the historically bad 2018 offensive hole from which the new staff had to dig. Last year’s Cardinals were among the NFL’s worst as far back as 2011 in terms of pass yards per game, total yards and yards per play. Average plays per drive, average points per drive and percent of drives ending in scores were also the NFL’s worst since at least 2011.
On the other hand, Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech teams never ranked lower than 16th (of roughly 130 teams) in total yards, with a clear preference for passing:
The volume backed it up. Much has been made of Kingsbury’s tempo, and it’s legit. Here are his college ranks per year in terms of number of plays run. They were pass heavy, up-tempo and not focused on rushing – all promising characteristics for Kyler Murray.
We already see dramatic differences in Arizona’s offense after six weeks (NFL ranks):
– eighth in total offense
– third in number of plays
– fifth in pass attempts
– tenth in pass yards
– fourth in percent of drives ending in a score
– second fewest percent of drives ending in a turnover
As expected, this remarkable turnaround is being driven by the passing game, but the run game is not being neglected. The Cardinals rank 17th in rush attempts and an efficient sixth in rush yards per attempt.
Talent is meeting opportunity and the result is a 22-year-old rookie already performing as a QB1.
Murray is ranked 35th overall in the DLF superflex/2 QB rankings, below Jared Goff and above Matt Ryan among quarterbacks.
He comes in at number eight in the DLF QB positional rankings, between Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield.
Keeping it within the cornerstone context, Murray ranks as the 22nd player overall when combining first and second year NFL players with 2020 rookies. I have him ranked the highest (by far) at tenth overall, two spots below Lamar Jackson.
We now have six weeks of data confirming Murray’s ability, Kingsbury’s philosophy and ability to turn around an NFL offense. Yet Murray’s ADP has actually fallen 16 spots since October and at 113 is more than two rounds off its July high.
The DLF rankings and ADP data give strong buy signals. Let’s compare them to recent real world MyFantasyLeague trades using the DLF Trade Finder.
2019-10-15: QB Jameis Winston, TBB + Year 2020 round 1 pick for
QB Kyler Murray, ARI + Matt Breida, SFO
2019-10-15: QB Kyler Murray, ARI + Year 2021 round 4 pick for
QB Philip Rivers, LAC + RB Kerryon Johnson, DET
2019-10-14: Year 2020 round 1 pick + Year 2020 round 1 pick + Year 2021 round 1 pick for
QB Kyler Murray, ARI
Trade values vary but I only expect Murray’s price to rise. I am aggressively buying everywhere I can.
Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack and let’s uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
