Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Five

Peter Howard

Hello and welcome back to my target share article. In this series, I look for patterns and trends in usage that can help us find advantages in dynasty. This week, with five weeks of data in the books and trends beginning to stabilize, I thought a team level look at several interesting situations would be a good idea.

It’s the time of the year where we are trying to find buy and sell candidates in dynasty, and a lot depends on whether your team is winning or losing. So I’ve tried to split my observations up into those categories.

Let’s get to it.

Carolina Panthers

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Buy in all formats and situations: Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR

I’m only staying it on the off chance this is your first time reading a fantasy football article and you don’t know that McCaffrey is the most valuable player for winning in 2019 right now.

Stash: Reggie Bonnafon, RB CAR

It’s time to start stacking your bench with RB handcuffs hoping for variance swings. That’s good for any team in any situation, but Bonnafon has also seen a rise in snaps and performance (and McCaffrey needs rest . . . occasionally). Losing teams who’ve been stashing him might be able to cash out for some value and winning teams can move forward into the playoffs with a decent stash on their bench.

Winning Buy: Curtis Samuel, WR CAR

Since Kyle Allen took over under center, Samuel has increased his target share every week. He now has four games with more than 20% of the team’s targets. The same was true last week.

DJ Moore was the one to put up the better score and in fact soaked up over 25% of targets himself. Samuels, though, has the second most red zone touches (13%) on the team. Since he’s likely to continue being the more consistent target while Kyle Allen is starting at QB, he could be a very decent buy low right now for winning teams thinking short term.

Losing Buy: DJ Moore, WR CAR

I like Samuel, but despite the recent trend Moore still leads the team in target share at the position. I think Moore has a bigger and better long term outlook as well. With the growing use of Samuel, we might find it easier to trade for Moore. If you’re not a lock to make the playoffs there are few better long-term moves you can make then trading for a young wide receiver who, even though he may struggle in the short term, has already proven talent at the NFL level.

Denver Broncos

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Buy in all formats: Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

Joe Flacco really is elite — or maybe average QB’s with good wide receivers are enough for a dynasty breakout. This may be the quietest, most unnoticed wide receiver to break out. Despite Emmanuel Sanders being a medical marvel and really good at playing football, Sutton has risen up to lead the team in targets for the last three weeks. He leads with a 23% target share on the season as well, and he’s putting up decent production already. Tied for red zone touches with Sanders at 16%, he is a strong buy.

Losing Sell: Phillip Lindsay, RB DEN

We’ve mentioned it a few times already. I love the player, he’s very good. But the team continues to feed their split with Royce Freeman and Lindsay’s lead in target share is dwindling. His advantage right now is that he holds 30% of the team’s red zone touches, but Freeman even has more (by 1) targets in the red zone. Both are solid additions for a winning team, but while the getting is still good I’d want out if I can still get high-end RB2 value for him.

Winning Buy: Royce Freeman, RB DEN

Everything I just said above, plus Freeman’s PPG should spike up from week-to-week even if the split remains stable (which it hasn’t so far, as Freeman has continually gained ground). In other words, he has the upside of flex right now and more upside if the team (as teams tend to do) decided to fade their UDFA superstar in favor of their drafted player. Everything is valued but if he’s only worth a second-round pick and change to whomever has him on their roster, and I’m a winning team, that’s a decent investment in my opinion.

Sell in all formats: DaeSean Hamilton, WR DEN

I honestly didn’t know there were still Hamilton truthers out there. I’m not sure what unlikely breakout scenario they are hoping for, but make sure you fan those flames and completely agree “he’s just always been underused” while taking their money. They need to feel good while they can.

Arizona Cardinals

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Buy in all formats and situations: Christian Kirk, WR ARI

Who said you needed the Hall-of-Fame receiver in front of you on the depth chart to retire before you could break out in the NFL? Not Kirk. He is coming back off an ankle injury and is currently expected to play in week six.

Stash: Chase Edmonds, RB ARI

He’s good whenever he gets the ball and his workload is increasing as the season wears on.

Winning Buy: Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI

Not just to own the age haters, but also because in a year where a lot of our top-five wide receivers are struggling, Fitzgerald is set to produce his tenth 1000-yard season, and he’s got plenty of red zone usage and touchdown upside. He still leads the team now with seven red zone targets and has been slightly unlucky on those targets so far.

Winning Buy: David Johnson, RB ARI

Not nearly as sexy of a proposition as it once was, but Johnson is set to be a top-12 running back again this year, and he’s one of very few who still maintains a full feature back workload in the NFL. Perception of his value is holding steady, and it’s just the sort of piece you want on a team bound for the playoffs.

Dynasty Sell: KeeSean Johnson, WR ARI

I like the player and love the three-way target split the Cardinals, but I’m not sure Johnson can live up to his value jump from his rookie draft value.

Right now, Fitzgerald and Kirk seem to have the production locked down, and long-term an underproductive 6th round pick could find his position threatened very easily. He could be a dynasty buy for his youth and impressive targets in his rookie season, to be fair, so it’s a trade that could benefit both teams in opposite situations.

Baltimore Ravens

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Wining Buy: Mark Andrews, TE BAL

He has been struggling with an injury lately but still leads the team in targets and recently saw his opportunity trend back up in week five. His points are still not back to where they were to start the season, but with his usage, and those touchdowns, that kind of scoring should return.

Losing Sell: Marquise Brown, WR BAL

I was on the buy train for a while and I think we should see a spike week soon from all his volume. However, after just selling off any remaining share I had of Sammy Watkins in dynasty, I was reminded that sometimes bad players get lots of volume and you just . . . sorta . . . keep waiting for it to happen. Spike weeks are one thing for a winning team but if someone has accurately identified his volume as a rookie and wants to buy into it at a high value (sound process to be fair), then I’m willing to let them do that if he’s on my team. He’s a very strong hold without decent value in return (first-round pick value and up).

Give the stash up: Miles Boykin, WR BAL

I wasn’t “on” Boykin as a rookie so this may be confirmation bias, but I’m more interested in stashing running backs with my roster spots at this point in the season.

Sell Willie Snead, WR BAL

Just in case you can convince anyone that snap % is better than target % at wide receiver (it isn’t), I thought I’d mention this one. He’s a good player, just low upside and a shrinking role in this offence.

Losing Sell: Mark Ingram, RB BAL

He’s got a fantastic matchup this week, but despite being very productive in fantasy, Ingram continues to depend on touchdowns. He is playing on only 53% of the teams snaps right now, which is far below what we’d expect for a 15PPG running back with a 5% target share.

He’s also over-performing on his 16 red zone carries to the tune of 16 fantasy points over expected. He’s a touchdown-dependent running back in a good situation with a low snap share and regression looming. Even if I’m going to the playoffs I’d be interested to see what I could get for him based on his production.

You can find all the data I’m using, graciously donated by 4for4.com at this link here.

Well, that’s all from me this week, hope you’re on the winning side of your dynasty league and good luck in week six.

Thanks for checking this out.

peter howard
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