Cornerstone Report: Week Seven
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.
Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.
Last week’s edition can be found here. Also be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
NCAA WEEK SEVEN
At the season’s halfway point, let’s examine two of the fastest risers among 2020 dynasty prospects.
Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama
Through five games, no 2020 receiver prospect has boosted their stock more than Henry Ruggs. In August, Ruggs had an implied 2020 rookie draft position of 2.02 in our DLF staff mock. He now projects as rookie 1.09 after averaging 24 yards per touch through five games.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
In NFL week five, San Francisco running back Matt Brieda reached a top speed of 22 mph on an 83 yard touchdown run. It is the fastest run recorded in the NFL this year. Henry Ruggs hit 23 mph on this long yard score.
It only took 13 seconds for Alabama to score its first touchdown against New Mexico State.
Henry Ruggs 75 yards to the house.pic.twitter.com/Mj2LGuAGNO
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 7, 2019
This speed is routinely on display:
Henry Ruggs got 9️⃣9️⃣ speed
(via @CBSSports)pic.twitter.com/UFJ4uInHuS
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 14, 2019
But Ruggs is not just a speed guy. He possesses good hands and toughness.
We see you, Henry Ruggs. We see you. pic.twitter.com/GQNmmxa5rQ
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 24, 2018
Henry Ruggs sits at 36th in the DLF cornerstone rankings, which combine 2020 prospects with first and second year NFL players. This puts him just behind Minnesota Gophers receiver Tyler Johnson and ahead of Courtland Sutton among wide receivers. He comes in at 13th in the DLF devy rankings, between fellow 2020 receivers Tee Higgins and the aforementioned Johnson.
Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma State
Chuba Hubbard drew attention within the devy community even as a 2017 high school prospect. Despite his three-star ranking he held offers from Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma.
At that time I worried that he may just be a speedster, but in 2019 he has shown a developed skill set. Indeed, his devy ADP implies a projected 2020 rookie draft slot of approximately 1.11.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
In his first year of action, Hubbard hit the 20 reception mark we like to see from college running backs. Through six games in 2019 he eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards, accounting for 65% of Oklahoma State’s rushing yards on 54% of its carries.
DLF’s Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) highlighted two plays showing Hubbard’s ability.
https://twitter.com/RayGQue/status/1179914855404507138
Hubbard’s rookie draft upside is likely capped by D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers. However, there is more appreciation possible from his current 1.11 projection. He will test well at the NFL Combine and is listed at a solid 6’1” and 207 pounds. Running backs generally climb boards as rookie drafts approach, and Hubbard is primed to pass prospects such as LaViska Shenault and Bryan Edwards.
Hubbard has risen all the way to 22nd in the DLF cornerstone rankings, right behind David Montgomery. The DLF devy crew ranks him 15th among devy players, ahead of running back Eno Benjamin.
NFL WEEK SIX
AJ Brown, WR TEN
One can lose sight of Brown’s accomplishments through five weeks given the inconsistency of Tennessee’s passing offense and the spectacular starts by other rookie receivers. Nonetheless, he deserves accolades for what he has done.
Per Pro Football Focus, Brown ranks 15th in yards per route run among 159 qualifiers.
Marcus Mariota has not been terrible this season, despite the criticism. Through five games, Mariota is setting career highs in interception percentage (he is still to throw an interception versus seven touchdowns), yards per attempt, yards per completion and quarterback rating. He is near the league average in air yards per attempt and bad throw percentage.
It’s about volume. Tennessee is 11th in rushing attempts and 27th in pass attempts. Not surprisingly, the Titans are among the league’s worst in sustaining drives and finishing drives with a score.
Back to Brown, he saw the field for a season-high 65% of Tennessee’s snaps in week five and has now out-snapped Adam Humphries for two straight weeks. His 0.30 fantasy points per snap is best on the team. For reference, Corey Davis averages exactly half that number (0.15). Julio Jones (0.32) and Terry McLaurin (0.28) are receivers in this neighborhood of fantasy production per snap.
Despite not playing full time, Brown leads all Titans receivers in fantasy points, and his playing time is starting to increase.
He ranks fourth in the current DLF rookie rankings, putting him at rookie WR1.
His overall dynasty ADP of 87 is a slight bump from its August low but two rounds below its March high (60) and its post-NFL Draft figure of 70.
While the DLF crew ranks him as rookie 1.04, the overall ADP data implies a rookie rank of 1.08, third among wide receivers (behind N’Keal Harry and DK Metcalf).
Using the DLF trade finder, we see some MyFantasyLeague deals from this week involving Brown:
2019-10-08: Year 2020 round 1 draft pick for WR AJ Brown, TEN
2019-10-06: QB Gardner Minshew, JAC and WR AJ Brown, TEN for WR Chris Godwin, TBB
2019-10-06: RB David Montgomery, CHI for WR AJ Brown, TEN
2019-10-05:WR AJ Brown, TEN and WR Courtland Sutton, DEN for WR Davante Adams, GBP and Year 2020 round 3 pick
As indicated by these trades, Brown is already fetching good value, suggesting that his DLF rank is closer in value than the ADP figure to what we can expect in our leagues.
Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack and let’s uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
