IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five

Ryan Miller

The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week six and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!

The gist of this column: finding guys that are either long-term dynasty fliers or quality one-week rentals-you’ll know which one from my writing. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.

The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.

Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that given week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it has actually done very well so far), so this is a section dedicated to that.

*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*

Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

Season Totals:

Disruption Score~ 6 Busts, 6 Average, 4 Hits
Snap Counts~ 3 Busts, 4 Average, 2 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 5 Busts, 4 Average, 5 Hits

Disruption Score Waiver Adds

Defensive Line

Jonathan Bullard, DE ARI (Disruption Score: 34.94)

Bullard is a sneaky defensive end to monitor. The Cardinals have played at an abnormally high tempo through the first five weeks of the season, presenting their defense with a ton of opportunity as well. Bullard did not make his first relevant season debut until week four when he made an instant impact sack against the Seahawks. Fast forward one week and he did not get a sack, but he had seven total tackles to elevate his floor. Bullard is a former stud in Chicago with the chance to rise among the ranks. Check your waiver wire to see if a league mate got tired of waiting around for Bullard to take the field again.

Nick Williams, DE CHI (Disruption Score: 39.58)

Speaking of Chicago stud defensive ends, Nick Williams is doing everything he can to throw his name in the ring. His snap share has steadily risen from 22% to 60% throughout the season, and his fifth season is shaping up to be his best one yet. After having zero sacks in his first twenty-nine games, Williams has raced out to four sacks in his first five games of 2019. While this sounds unsustainable, Williams is a name I am paying close attention to in DT-featured leagues specifically. His performance backs up everything you need to know.

Jordan Phillips, DT BUF (Disruption Score: 136.24)

Phillips was possibly my best call of week five. I posted a tweet this week outlining those leading the league in Disruption Score through the first four weeks of the season, with a prediction of seven different guys that seemed to be “due” for more sacks immediately. Phillips made that list, and he ERUPTED against the Titans this week for three sacks. Phillips is among the top 20 in Disruption Score at this point in the season, and his upcoming bye week is likely your last chance to claim him.

Linebacker

David Mayo, LB NYG (Disruption Score: 13.11)

Ryan Connelly made the waiver wire article last week until it was determined he has a torn ACL and is out for the season. What we learned on Sunday, however, is that this is a clear plug-and-play value as the Giants’ starting linebacker. Mayo’s nine tackles in week five (backed up by his eight tackles as a replacement in week four) show that Mayo is a low-upside LB2 the rest of the way.

Matchup-Based Waiver Adds

Defensive Line

Allen Bailey, DE ATL (Week 6, @ Arizona)

Bailey isn’t the best dynasty investment as a defensive end on the wrong side of thirty, but for those that may have his stashed as roster fodder, I’d consider bumping him onto your starting rotation for week six. Arizona’s pass protection was not any better against the Cincinnati pass rush on Sunday, leaving Bailey and Takkarist McKinley ready to throw Kyler Murray off his game once again.

Lawrence Guy, DE NE (Week 6, vs. NY Giants)

I’m doubling down on Guy after a poor week five performance against the Redskins. Guy still leads the Patriots in tackles among all defensive lineman, even after a poor Sunday performance. He is a sneaky player who has established a Trey Flowers-lite tackle floor in that New England scheme, and has a favorable matchup against Daniel Jones and that shaky Giants’ offensive line. If Saquon Barkley misses one more week and Wayne Gallman is out with his concussion, there is an easy path to a monster game in Guy’s sights.

Linebacker

Blake Cashman, LB NYJ (Week 6, vs. Dallas)

Shout-out to the amazing IDP Read & React podcast for being so high on Blake Cashman prior to the NFL Draft. Odds are that if you’re here looking for IDP waivers in week six, you’ve heard of them by now…but if not, do yourself the favor! I was foolishly a bit more skeptical of Cashman’s upside heading into 2019, but Cashman has absolutely made the most of this opportunity after Avery Williamson’s preseason ACL tear. The Jets are well-rested after the bye and face a Cowboys team looking to get back on track after a tough loss against Green Bay, and the best way to do so is to establish the game flow with Zeke, Zeke, and more Zeke. Plus-matchup for Cashman here.

Quincy Williams, LB JAX (Week 6, vs. New Orleans)

Speaking of stud rookie linebackers, Williams is the linebacker I was higher on than the Read & React crew over Cashman. Thankfully for all of our reputations, both linebackers have been off to respectable starts to this season. He had a confusingly poor outing against a Panthers team with a conservative quarterback and an elite tier running back, but I expect round two of this type of matchup to go much better for Williams. He is worth starting as a strong LB3, or a decent LB2 if you’ve been decimated by injuries to start off the year.

Defensive Backs

Jimmy Moreland, CB SF (Week 6, @ Miami)

This game could very well be the ugliest game in NFL history (yes, even worse than the Steelers’ 3-0 win over the Dolphins in 2007). I don’t expect much out of this game, so I am willing to bet on a lot of interceptions being thrown here, and my dart goes to the cornerback being targeted the most heavily in the Washington secondary. He’s only a start if you need something desperate, but I’m betting on way more IDP players in this game than I would even come close to considering on the offensive side of the ball.

ryan miller
Follow me
Latest posts by Ryan Miller (see all)