Sunday Six Pack: Week Five

Tom Burroughs Posted On October 6, 2019

This week, Tom Burroughs covers six more hot topics in dynasty fantasty football…

1. Is Marcus Mariota making the Tennessee passing game relevant?

The Titans entered this season with a pass-catching corps that’s value has progressively decreased throughout the off-season. Corey Davis’ ADP has dropped and enthusiasm for AJ Brown was dampened with the landing spot. One of the surprising starts to the season has been Mariota’s ability to sustain drives and provide fantasy relevance in spurts to Delanie Walker and the team’s top receivers. Does this mean the tides are finally turning on this offense’s upside?

I don’t believe so. Mariota’s passer rating has improved, but this is inflated by his lack of interceptions. His attempts per game (29.75), completion percentage (62.2%), and yards per attempt (7.8) are all nearly identical to his career averages. He is 23rd in attempts (119), 19th in passing yards, and has even been aided by big plays after the catch from Brown and others. His density of targets remains close to the line of scrimmage with a meager 7.9 average depth of target and the team is only passing on 54% of plays.

This is a bad combination for future fantasy value. The team is having success and Mariota is proving a capable game manager with an effective defense. If he continues to be efficient and the team wins games, they will be more likely to extend his contract. This may firmly secure Davis and Brown as fringe starters in an offense that will struggle to support consistent fantasy receivers for years to come.

2. Is it time to panic with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen?

Yes, probably. Both receivers have come out in the past week expressing their displeasure on the state of affairs in Minnesota. Diggs has gone as far as to say that “there is truth in all rumors” when asked about recent swirling trade rumors. Minnesota has passed on only 47.35% of plays so far this season, which would put them in dead last of teams in 2018. To make matters worse, the team is 30th in plays run per game (56.5) and have averaged a measly 24.75 pass attempts per matchup. This has led to Kirk Cousins passing for only 183 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. There is no way a QB throwing under 3,000 yards and 12 TDs in a season can sustain fantasy success for two elite receivers.

The silver lining is that this current situation is unlikely sustainable. Changes will need to be made given the mounting pressure from the receivers, fans, and the media. This will hopefully increase their production and buoy their value. Both Diggs and Thielen are firm holds unless you can receive fair value comparable to preseason ADP. Better days ahead.

3. What should we do with the Broncos backfield?

I speculated in the off-season that new Broncos OC, Rich Scangarello, could substantially increase the use of 2-1 personnel (2RBs, 1TE, 2WRs). This would lead to more opportunity and fantasy relevance for both Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. I appear to have been wrong about the personnel usage since they have used 2-1 on 11% of plays, just above league average (9%). Despite this, both Freeman and Lindsay have been serviceable as the RB27 and RB13, respectively. Snap counts have them sharing the workload with essentially a 50/50 split. Their workload is nearly identical as well with both receiving 19 targets and similar number of carries per game. The only difference is that Lindsay has found the end zone twice while Freeman has yet to score.

These backs are in a full-blown time-share on an offense that is not projected to be in scoring situations often. They are both serviceable starters, but their upside is limited given the shared usage and recommended sells if other owners are calling.

4. Will OJ Howard bounce back?

Howard entered the season with big expectations for a breakout campaign and heavy involvement in Arians’ passing attack. Unfortunately, he has been one of the biggest disappointments through a quarter of the season. He is currently the TE27, netting only 131 yards on ten receptions (12 targets) and zero TDs.

When examining the team usage, the Bucs are utilizing 1-2 personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) on 21% plays, which is among the most in the league. This tends to lend itself to teams using TEs more in the passing game since they are on the field for more snaps and there is additional blocking support. The problem is that Howard is the one being used for blocking. He has played inline on 68.1% of his snaps, severely limiting the number of routes run. And to make matters worse, he has only two targets in the red zone so far.

Howard has gone from a clear-cut top tight end asset to a borderline startable player at an already bleak position. His usage does not breed confidence of a change, especially given the team’s offensive success in recent weeks.

5. Are JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner becoming roster liabilities?

The Steelers’ first Brown-less season could not have started much worse. They are 1-3 after losing Ben Roethlisberger for the season and trading away their 2020 first-round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are 24th in offensive DVOA and are dead last in plays run per game (54.8).

Needless to say, this is a steep decline from 2018 and may not improve much with Mason Rudolph under center. Week four showed an increase in Jaylen Samuels‘ involvement (46% snaps), but Conner still managed to play 64% of snaps and received 18 touches. He has yet to receive more than 13 carries in a game, but his value is sustained with consistent involvement as a receiver (eight targets in week four). This suggests that while Conner’s upside has been severely capped, he should maintain a steady floor through the end of this season.

Smith-Schuster, on the other hand, has more tough days ahead. He is 52nd in air yards (241) and has had 30% of his yards come on one long TD reception. While this is part of his skillset, he is on pace to receive 108 targets with an 8.9 average depth of target. He remains an elite fantasy option and clear first round startup selection given his talent, previous performance, and age, but he will be a liability for starting rosters looking to compete in 2019.

6. Can Teddy Bridgewater weather the storm for Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas?

Bridgewater at the helm may be providing a much-needed glimpse into what we can expect in the post-Drew Brees era. Kamara and Thomas are both first-round startup assets and it is valuable data to learn their dependency on their Hall of Fame QB.

Thomas seems to have not missed a beat. He hauled in all nine of his targets in week four and has maintained close to his career yards per reception (10.6 in 2019). Given his role in the short and intermediate passing game, he translates well to most quarterbacks and can act as a needed safety blanket. Bridgewater has a particularly low average depth of target (5.6), which will adversely affect players such as Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre’Quan Smith, but insulate Thomas with consistent volume.

The same can apply to Kamara. He had a disappointing outing in week four, but his skill set in the receiving game near the line of scrimmage complements what Bridgewater is doing. Kamara has played on 88% and 77% of snaps, respectively, the past two weeks with over 15 carries each week. Combined with his consistent targets and ridiculous playmaking ability, he will sustain top 12 numbers in any Sean Payton offense. We just may not be able to expect consistent scoring opportunities for either player as long as Bridgewater or another QB is under center.