Four Quarters of Fantasy Football

Whether you believe it or not, we are already a fourth of the way through the 2019 NFL season. Many owners, myself included are still pinching themselves hoping to wake up from what must be a bad dream. Others are celebrating their deep sleeper picks and mid-round steals that have outperformed starters this season.

Regardless of your fantasy record at this point, there is still a lot of season left, meaning trends will continue and trends will change and time will only tell whether that will benefit you as the owner.

In this piece, we’ll analyze early-season dynasty rankings and ADP data trends to determine where predictions went wrong during off-season analysis. As positional players ascend and descend the rankings ladder, we’ll predict which player trends are simply hyped and which are worth buying into.

Deshaun Watson, QB HOU

Watson has not had a poor 2019 season, to say the least, but he certainly has not played up to his number two overall quarterback ranking along with his 45.83 ADP rating. The Houston Texans sold everything but the kitchen sink to provide greater protection and weapons for their franchise quarterback, yet Watson has already been sacked 18 times (third highest).

Heading into Week Five, Watson is the QB7 with 938 passing yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. The Texans have been a disappointment, to say the least. Watson is averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt an entire 1.2 yards per attempt less than his 2018 season totals.

Watson should rebound into the top five quarterbacks by season end, but let this serve as your yearly reminder to pump the brakes before drafting your QB1 in the early rounds. Dak Prescott is currently the QB4, yet his early-season ADP was 135 with him being drafted almost eight rounds later than Watson.

The Texans will turn things around as a whole. If you can buy Watson off a concerned owner, now is the time to do so.

Daniel Jones, QB NYG

The time is now for Daniel Jones. I’ll admit it, the Jones truthers were right, and a lot of got this one wrong. Jones is the surefire starter now for the New York Giants and looks poised to take over for the remainder of the season.

Jones currently ranks as the QB19 heading into Week Five, just below Aaron Rodgers and surprisingly ahead of names such as Baker Mayfield and Drew Brees. In our DLF quarterback rankings, Jones is ranked as the 15th best quarterback with an overall ADP of 189.67 which has jumped up nearly 30 points in the last month.

For those who drafted Jones in the 15th round of startup drafts, props to you! In two starts, Jones has completed nearly 70% of his passes for 578 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also used his mobility nicely adding two scores on the ground.

Jones’ buy-low window has now closed and the Giants suddenly have found their franchise running back and quarterback in consecutive drafts.

Marlon Mack, RB, IND

Mack enters Week Five of the 2019 season as the RB11, and fifth in the NFL in rushing yards. He is seventh in the league with 72 rushing attempts, turning those opportunities into 338 rushing yards with four scores. Despite being ranked as the 19th overall running back in dynasty leagues, Mack has turned the disappointing news of Andrew Luck’s retirement into a great statistical season.

Mack saw his ADP plummet when Luck announced his retirement in late August. Now with a 58.83 ADP rating, owners who were able to snag Mack late in the fifth round or later of drafts have certainly seen a large return on his value.

He will turn 24 years old in March and still has plenty of great football in his future. While many owners suspected the loss of Andrew Luck would be detrimental to the value of Colts players, Mack is one who has reversed that opinion.

I’m holding on Mack in dynasty leagues at the moment. He has great value in 2019 and neither Jordan Wilkins nor Nyheim Hines will surpass him in touches.

Mark Ingram, RB, BAL

The fountain of youth is a beautiful thing, especially when it comes in the seventh round of dynasty startups. At nearly 30 years old, Mark Ingram is averaging 6.0 yards per carry through the first quarter of the season. He has scored five touchdowns already and has done so on just 55 carries (18th overall).

Ingram entered the season as the 26th ranked running back in dynasty leagues with an overall ADP of 84.00. His value has certainly skyrocketed in a now explosive yet, run-heavy Baltimore offense. With Lamar Jackson now drawing more attention to defenses than ever, Ingram has had huge running lanes to barrel through.

Don’t be mislead. Being ranked as the 26th most valuable running back in dynasty leagues was not because of poor judgment. Ingram is turning 30 in a few months after all and it remains unseen how many more seasons he has left in him.

His ADP is certain to rise in DLF’s October results but his running back ranking should rise just a handful of spots. If you are an Ingram owner, I am selling now while I can for younger talent or future picks that are going to net a profit for the next five years or more.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

Hopkins along with the rest of the Houston Texans have struggled early in 2019. The clear WR1 overall receiver heading into the season currently ranks as the WR20 through four weeks.

Hopkins has caught 24 of his 36 targets (six receptions per game average) for only 259 yards and two touchdowns. In 2018, Hopkins caught 115 passes and scored 11 touchdowns while averaging over 13 yards per reception. Currently, in 2019 he is only averaging 10 yards per catch.

What’s the big difference between three yards you ask? The answer plain and simple is that Hopkins has not been able to get his usual separation downfield as he has done in the past. This is forcing Watson to look elsewhere on the field and minimizing the deep threat that Hopkins can be. His longest catch of the year thus far is 38 yards downfield.

I never thought I would see a trade window open for Hopkins at this point in his career, but now is the time. The Texans will turn things around, more specifically Hopkins will get going in the next four games of the season. His current ADP is 5.00 overall, and will still cost you everything but at least desperate owners will be willing to listen this time around.

DJ Chark, WR, JAX

Chark began the 2019 season ranked as the WR44 in DLF Wide Receiver rankings. He currently is the WR10 through the first quarter of the season and is playing with a quarterback not named Nick Foles.

His September ADP jumped from 221.5 in August to 171.50 and will certainly skyrocket again once our October results release. As a 15th round draft pick in startups, Chark consistently has become a must-start WR2 on most rosters and has done so versus some very tough matchups.

He is a favorite target in Jacksonville, hauling in 19 of 26 targets for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Six of his receptions have gone for 20 yards or more, which is the key to Chark’s success… getting down the field.

Hardly anyone saw major value in the receiving corps of the Jaguars in 2019, but since Gardner Minshew has taken over the reins at quarterback, suddenly there is a passing attack in South Florida that isn’t going through Leonard Fournette.

I’m riding Chark this season and holding on for hopes that he becomes the clear WR1 of the Jaguars in the 2020 season.

There are so many ups and downs to any fantasy season. These are just a few notable players that hopefully remind us as owners to not always jump on the hype train early in the season, but also to remain patient when everyone is jumping off. Who are some players you are still waiting for to break out in 2019?