DLF’s 2018 Predictions Retrospective: Fantasy Sleeper of the Year

Ryan Finley Posted On January 29, 2019

It’s always a bit of a let-down to realize just how quickly the NFL season passes. Months and months of buildup are followed by a short-lived whirlwind of actual football. The calendar has turned to a New Year, your favorite team’s playoff dreams are being dashed left and right, and the fantasy playoffs are a fading memory. This year, we thought we’d go ahead and take a hard look at our annual predictions series. We’ll see who was very right, who was very wrong, and try to pick a true winner for each category. Here are the categories we tackled:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Sleeper Rookie of the Year (outside our top 24)
Bust of the Year
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

We’ll continue our retrospective by taking a look at our picks for Fantasy Sleeper.

The Good

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Robert Woods, WR LAR

I’m going to pick a player with a redraft ADP outside the top 100 for this category – that brings me to Woods, who I’ve been banging the drum on all off-season. He had big-time production after a slow start and comfortably outproduced Cooper Kupp (who is going much earlier) on a per game basis. It’s certainly understandable why people don’t believe in Woods after four years of mediocrity in Buffalo and just one good season under his belt. However, he’ll change minds soon enough as he plays in an excellent offensive scheme he is already comfortable in and has built-in chemistry with Jared Goff. – Zach Wilkens

Woods had an ADP between 65 and 80 at the beginning of 2018. Even though fantasy owners were bought into the Sean McVay offense, Woods was not the first wide receiver drafted, as Brandin Cooks had an ADP in the 20s. But then actual football happened, and Woods outscored Cooks – not by a country mile, but enough to help make this a great call from Zach. Though I have to wonder if we can ever really peg the best wide receiver to target for the Rams.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN

Sanders is playing like a madman this off-season and is going to play mostly out of the slot in 2018, which just happens to be the same role Adam Thielen occupied for Case Keenum in 2017. Thielen saw 142 targets and was Keenum’s favorite by a large margin. Prior to 2017, Sanders finished inside the top 20 at the position for three consecutive years but is now going as the WR44 in August ADP. I think he is a value there and is primed for a bounce-back season as the most productive Broncos receiver in 2018. – Matt Price

Though Sanders’ late injury takes a little of the shine off this pick, he still managed to finish with nearly 200 points in PPR, even after missing the last four games. Matt made a nice pick here, highlighting his spot as the WR44 in August. Sanders was set to well surpass that ADP mark, and still surpassed it significantly as he finished as the WR21.

The Bad

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE JAC

Yes, I’m a card-carrying truther for the man they call ASJ, but I also have some statistical evidence to back up my man crush. The season-ending injury to wide receiver Marqise Lee (96) and the departure of Allen Hurns (56) in free agency open up 152 targets in the Jacksonville offense from the 2017 season. Don’t be surprised if Seferian-Jenkins is not only the most reliable fantasy option of all Jaguars pass-catchers, but finishes in the top ten of fake football tight ends. – Josh Brickner

We can’t fault Josh too severely for this pick, as ASJ did miss the majority of the season due to injury. I was also one fantasy owner looking to pick him up to try to fill that tight end spot on my roster, so I had a similar thought process that Josh has here. Seferian-Jenkins always had the physical tools, and it looked like perhaps he could really squeeze the most out of them in Jacksonville. But then the Jaguar train went off the rails this past season. With an offense that ended the season 31st in scoring, there likely wasn’t a lot there even if ASJ had a healthy 2018.

The Ugly

Jaron Brown, WR SEA

I started off the summer high on Doug Baldwin. I told you to stay away from Brandon Marshall. Coming into week one of the season, we are told Baldwin is dealing with a knee injury that they will have to monitor “all season” and Marshall actually made the team initially. That said, it’s Jaron Brown who has impressed. He’s 6-foot-2 and has the size/speed to open up the offense deep. The Seahawks love explosive plays and running deep routes off play action has already looked like a strong positive for Brown in the preseason. – Pete Lawrence

Pete pulled the green chip out of the bag here. He started out proving he had the right idea, pointing out that maybe you should stay away from Doug Baldwin. I wish I had taken that advice. Pete just picked the wrong Seattle wideout to call out, as this would have looked downright prescient if it had featured a different Seattle receiver – Tyler Lockett. As it stands, Jaron Brown didn’t amount to much in 2018, but thankfully he wouldn’t have cost you all that much either.

The Truth

I don’t think any of us hit on the best sleeper pick in this article. Woods was a very good pick, but his ADP was also in the top 100 still, so his jump wasn’t as stark as some other players this year. Some good choices for the biggest jump from ADP to finish were the aforementioned Tyler Lockett, who had an ADP around 140 in August, and James White who sat around 150 at the same time. Both had strong seasons and finished in the top 75 overall in PPR. But I believe the biggest jump that nobody saw coming came from Tyler Boyd. His August ADP was close to 200 overall, practically off the chart in the wrong way. He turned that price into 221 points in PPR. That’s an awfully good return.

This was a harder category to pick than some others. Do you have a different pick for sleeper of the year? (Veteran edition!)

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