The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: September

Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post, a quarterly column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly.

This has already been one of the wackiest seasons in recent memory. We’ve witnessed one of the most stellar meltdowns that I can recall with the on-going Antonio Brown. We have also seen an upheaval at the quarterback position in just three weeks’ time which hasn’t been matched, in terms of intensity, over the span of complete seasons. Nearly a quarter of the league has seen some turnover at the position or have seen their starting quarterback go down to injury.

This time of unpredictability has forced many owners to make trades they didn’t expect or has forced them to seek out trading options much earlier in the season than they may have planned. While many of those owners may not like the valuations they are being presented with, one thing we can all agree upon is that the trading market is white-hot right now. Let’s dive in and see what assets are the hottest, and coldest, commodities collected by the Dynasty Trade Finder since the season has started:

Talk About A Giant Deal

One of the most difficult players to obtain in dynasty leagues, Saquon Barkley, has suddenly become a very hot commodity. The number of trades involving him has exploded by 130 percent over the past 30 days, the largest jump in activity of any offensive player tracked by the Dynasty Trade Finder. It is important to note that while he isn’t the most traded player, the huge percentage jump in trades involving him signals that the dynasty community has started to shift in how they view him as an asset. Whereas he was nearly unattainable his rookie season and the following offseason, Barkley’s trade attainability has significantly increased.

Some possible factors that have led to this surge in trades may revolve around the moves that the Giants made in the offseason and the player selections made during the NFL Draft. The trading of Odell Beckham Jr. to Cleveland increased the likelihood that opposing defenses would focus much more closely on Barkley. The Giants decision to forego any kind of significant investment in their receiving corps during the draft and the ensuing suspension of the Giants’ major free agent wide receiver signing, Golden Tate made that type of on-field focus all but certain.

Where some current dynasty owners may fear the potential for him to be overused and to be heavily targeted by opponents, it appears many other owners view the opportunity to obtain Barkley as a way to acquire a bell cow running back with abundant opportunities built into each game he plays. No matter which side you find yourself on, now may be the time to test the waters on a Barkley trade or two.

The Other Gordon Trade Market Soars

Dynasty owners have become somewhat accustomed over the past few seasons to the trade market of Josh Gordon rising and falling with each new bit of news. This season, however, is a bit unique in that his value is somewhat stable while Melvin Gordon’s trade market has suddenly exploded.

Melvin Gordon has been a part of 133 dynasty trades over the past 30 days, far and away the most of any player in the NFL. While this is a sizeable amount of transactions, Gordon also led the league in transactions during the prior 30 days as well with 112 conducted in that period, an 18.8 percent increase.

Many dynasty owners appear open to moving on from the holdout situation in an effort to compete for the remainder of this season, while their trade partners appear to be content taking the long view by acquiring a high-value asset at a fraction of his value, having simply to stash him away for a currently undetermined amount of time. Eds.: The wait is nearly over.

I Chubb You Too Much To Let Go

The player with the biggest drop in trades over the past 30 days, Nick Chubb, has seen his trade market shrink by 22.6 percent. He is not alone, as the three players whose trade markets have shrunk the most over the past 30 days are all running backs. Joining him among those players with the most decreased trade markets are David Johnson (-22.4 percent) and Le’Veon Bell (-18.7 percent).

The tightening of Chubb’s trade market directly corresponds to a sizeable jump in his ADP over the past month, from 15.5 in August to 11.2 in September, indicating that the market has shrunk due to current dynasty owners seeking to hold onto an asset whose value is maturing.

Despite his perceived value, his performance on the field has been lackluster through the first three games of the season. While he has the seventh-most rushing yards of all running backs in the league, he has only one rushing touchdown and has the lowest yards per attempt of the top 15 running backs.

Yes, value should be viewed on a much larger scale than just three games. But with Kareem Hunt due to come off his suspension following week six, coupled with Chubb’s slow start in terms of efficiency, the market could begin to pick up steam once again in the coming weeks and months.

IDP Corner Market

By far, the biggest jump in trade volume among all IDP assets over the past 30 days was tied to Jadeveon Clowney who was part of 28 trades over that span as opposed to 13 in the prior 30-day period, good for a 115.4 percent jump.

That number is exceptionally high for an IDP asset as standard leagues are often stated as outnumbering IDP leagues by around a ten-to-one margin. The number of trades involving Clowney for the past month, however, are only half of those of the average top-ranked offensive players. Notably, this is the highest number of trades involving an IDP asset that I’ve seen since the creation of the Dynasty Trade Finder.

The huge increase in trades is directly attributable to the deal that sent him from Houston to Seattle which occurred only days before the start of the season.

Elsewhere in the IDP realm, the linebacker traded the most over the past 30 days was Eric Kendricks with 19 trades recorded. This bump in value directly reflects his play on the field through the start of the season as he is tied for the fifth most tackles in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Bradley McDougald rocketed up the defensive back trade leaderboard over the past 30 days with a 600 percent jump in trades over the prior 30-day period. Defensive back play is traditionally very erratic for fantasy purposes. Nonetheless, it appears McDougald has impressed a number of IDP owners after one of the best statistical seasons in his career last year.

Future Considerations

As I’ve stated many times before, rookie picks in dynasty leagues are the glue which keep many trades from falling apart, and while it may only be the first month of the 2019 season, owners are already trading these assets in increasing regularity.

Over the past 30 days every round of rookie picks over the next two seasons has seen a significant increase in the trades those assets have been a part of. No pick in the 2020 class saw less than a 25 percent increase with the smallest increase being second round picks which jumped by a respectable 27.5 percent while also eclipsing 2000 trades over the past month and the sharpest increase being fifth round picks which nearly jumped up by 50 percent.

Picks for the 2021 class have also seen massive jumps in trade frequency with first round picks increasing by 29.1 percent and fifth round picks exploding by 102.7 percent. If you are ever looking to get a trade done, rookie picks are both a popular ask if a trade is being proposed to you and a tempting carrot which you can dangle in front of other owners to get a deal done.

With a quarter of the NFL season nearing completion, some teams are already clearly out of contention while others seem poised to glide into the playoffs. As the season stretches on and those teams in the middle of the pack become willing to make trades to claw their way into the final playoff slots, we should see the number of trades steadily increase.

If you are one of those teams whose playoff hopes begin to fade just as the green also fades from the trees, be sure to keep checking the Dynasty Trade Finder to see which assets on your roster seem to be in high demand.

Likewise, if you are a fringe playoff team, you too may want to check back on the Dynasty Trade Finder to see which of your rookie picks teams may be asking for in a possible trade and how much in demand those picks are within the dynasty community as a whole. No matter where you find yourself within your league, good luck until next time!

As of this edition of the series, the Dynasty Trade Finder has recorded 255,489 trades that have occurred over 4,984 dynasty leagues, making it the premiere trade database in the dynasty fantasy football market. Make sure you check it out today by clicking here.