Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Three
Welcome back to the third article in my target share breakdown series of 2019. We’re late this week, but we also like to think we’re worth it. Here we look for patterns and trends in usage to try and identify savvy moves in all fantasy formats, especially dynasty. I’ve also created a simple expected point’s formula called “UDud” using a dumbed-down version of the method employed by Expected Points models using target share and snap percentage.
Everything depends on volume. Partly because you need the ball to score points in the first place. But also because while volume changes, sometimes in unpredictable ways, it’s still more predictable then pretty much anything else. Things can change unexpectedly but noticing usage patterns early can give us an edge over our competition.
In week four, we cross an important data threshold. With three weeks of data, we can start to track trends and patterns in rising and falling usage. The sample is never big enough, but, volume stats are starting to get more meaningful.
Before I get to a review of how last week’s UDud scores did, I’m going to breakdown the leaders in opportunity at each position as well as those trending up through the first three weeks. There is also a new “Trend of the Week” segment.
You can link a link to all the data I’ve collected at the end of the article.
Leaders In opportunity
Here are the most dominant receivers in target share right now:
*I want to note that Marquise Brown currently has a 26% target share in his rookie season, and just missed the top 12 list
Six wide receivers (and one tight end) earning 30% or more of their teams’ targets. For perspective, over the last five years, one point eight wide receivers and exactly zero tight ends have ended the season with that kind of volume. In fact, in the last three years, only one player has finished the season with 30% or more.
Opportunity is going to diffuse out through the depth chart as the season moves forward.
Sammy Watkins, WR KC
I know, I know, I said this last week after Demarcus Robinson went off for 35 PPR points, and now Mecole Hardman goes off for 18! BUT we also said this about Mike Evans and that worked out pretty great. Sammy Watkins is getting too much volume on this offense to have back to back weeks of ten and eleven fantasy points. I think part of the problem is that throwing the ball this many times to Sammy Watkins is a bad idea. But as long as it keeps up, we should be holding our breath for another boom week. His week one production is still confounding the UDud, lucky, we don’t make every decision based on UDud, so it’s cool.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Weirdly it’s taken this horrible volume season to emphasis that Adam Thielen is, in fact, the number one in this offense for some people. But he is. He has been for two years and three games now. He’s holding 27% of the targets with only 16 total targets. That’s crazy. In 2018, the famed run-heavy Seahawks was led by Brandon Marshall through the first three weeks. He had 18 targets for a total of 19%. He’d have needed 25 targets to get close to Thielen’s target share. In other words, it’s highly unlikely the team keeps up this low level of passing volume. Pete Carroll (probably) thinks this is going too far. Minnesota is going to throw more at some point.
Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ
His aDot is 6.4. He gets a lot of targets but those targets are not worth much for fantasy. They are able to accumulate enough yards for a solid fill-in role on a bye week, but there is a little upside. Not on a team that ranks second to last in the NFL with eight red-zone touches. Especially since Crowder has earned only one (12%) of those touches. Think Willie Snead last year.
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Keenan Allen is a monster and anyone who forgot that this off-season – because we like flashy shiny things like “youth” – is now paying for it. This is the opposite of Jamison Crowder, its volume you can believe in and the kind you want. Allen is getting 24% of his teams’ red zone touches (27 so far on the season.) His target share should come down below 37% by the end of the year. Mike Williams will be healthy again soon, Travis Benjamin will work in more, and Melvin Gordon’s return (while it may result in the loss of work of Austin Ekeler) also just means more options in the red zone. Still, Allen will be a high-level wide receiver in 2019.
Darren Waller, TE OAK
Darren Waller is now a locked-in top three tight end. He hasn’t even caught any touchdowns yet! That’s partly because Tyrell Williams is ruling the target share inside the 20, and the team likes to run inside the ten. 52% of the team’s opportunity inside the red-zone have gone to Josh Jacobs in the form of rushing attempts. Still, John Gruden wasn’t kidding this off-season when he said their offense would run through the tight end. His volume has to come down, but don’t fear the drop.
Trending up: Running Backs
For running backs, I want to start incorporating target share as well as snap share. As such I have mixed the two together for a “Cow Score” (or a better name to be decided later) and a “Cow Grid” rating. Cow Score is the average between the opportunities stats with slight weight given to targets because they have more value in fantasy. The Cow Grid is how much they have lost or gained in all opportunity since last week.
CJ Prosise, RB SEA
Chris Carson likely has a “get out of fumbling” free card with Rashaad Penny injured and likely in a more limited role this week. However, CJ Prosise was the running back we all (well, I was at least) were excited about once upon a time. He only faded because of injury. The probability is Chris Carson keeps his job. But Prosise should be rostered in dynasty, the position always has upside on this team.
Wayne Gallman, RB NYG
We don’t get many running backs with the chance to step into this kind of opportunity. But don’t expect anything like Saquon Barkley, obviously. The move from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones looks like it will be a vast improvement for the team. But their schedule gets harder eventually and Gallman has top-24, non-generation upside even if the team was facing Miami every week.
Rex Burkhead, RB NE
New England is going to do what New England does. I’ve accepted this. James White will be back, Burkhead should still be rostered for when he’s not.
Devonta Freeman, RB ATL, and David Johnson, RB ARI
These were likely just game script bumps. Both already have workhorse roles, to different degrees. Devonta Freeman is obviously struggling outside of good matchups, and the Cardinals are clearly still trying to “find their feet” (that’s a kind way of saying they need to get their act together) but I’m buying both when and where I can. Presumably from people who don’t like proven, talented players with all the right kind of volume.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
This is perhaps the solitary running back usage that can’t be explained by an injury this week. For the second straight week, David Montgomery has emerged as the Bears workhorse running back. I can’t say I agree with how they are working him, and I’m encouraged and while hoping they can get him more involved in the receiving game. For now, his arrow is pointing up.
Jalen Richard, RB NYJ
I can’t say I believe this increase is anything significant. However, on a team that says it wants to use its shiny new rookie as a receiver and then doesn’t, I think it’s interesting that Jalen Richards snap share went up in week three. For now, the situation is just one to monitor.
Trending up: Wide Receivers
Wide receivers earning more opportunity in their teams passing game can help to stabilize fantasy points. Here is everyone who gained more the four percent target share in week three.
It should be noted that while target share is one of the more stable and sticky statistics, week-to-week single-game spikes happen all the time. I think we can add anyone without at least ten percent of their team’s targets into a big bag of “it’s probably nothing” and more on. But I wanted to show them to you anyway.
Adam Humphries, WR TEN
Can I just “Nah wave” this one? Ugh, sure, maybe Humphries is rising, and he has been a top 24 wide receiver before. Probably worth adding if he’s available.
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
He’s not on the list because he only saw a three percent rise in target share. However, he has clearly become the second option at the position in Pittsburgh. While the team is not what they were, Johnson has a 14% target share and played on 53% of snaps (an eleven percent increase.) Buy him as if he were the second wide receiver on a mid-level pass-heavy offense. Because he is. Top 24 upside, with more likely top 36 potential.
Auden Tate, WR CIN
The only people who will notice this are probably sharps and dynasty degenerates. Auden Tate, a fast, fairly productive college player, just jumped up to a ten percent target share in week three. Worth noting.
Preston Williams, WR MIA
A rising star in the worst situation. I find myself thinking a lot about Miami players as decent buy lows. Not because the team will get better but because it’s so bad even the good things are getting discounted. 21% of targets is a significant threshold for a player on any team in any situation, especially as a rookie undrafted free agent. He had a bad drop on a touchdown last week, on the other hand, he’s getting those targets and he can’t drop them all…I think. Miami only has seven (league-low, in so many ways) red-zone touches so far. Preston Williams owns 71% of them. Put it another way, he has as many raw red-zone touches as Mike Evans (five).
Dante Pettis, WR SF
I don’t believe. Although I’m sure his four percent of targets are helping him to get “fully motivated.” Sometimes you just have to call a spade a spade. And Pettis would be more useful digging holes in your yard then trying to score fantasy points on your roster. (Burn! as the kids say.)
Paul Richardson, WR WAS
A supporting actor in a mediocre to below-average “movie.” If the ticket is free, maybe. Put it in your back pocket and see if you find the time to use it. But don’t pay actual currency to attend. (I think this metaphor ran away from me a little?)
Taylor Gabriel, WR CHI
It’s just a spike week, but anyone hoping Anthony Miller might be able to find room on this team should probably face the fact that Taylor Gabriel already has. And he’s pretty good. Allen Robinson’s target share is more sustainable than those in the top 12 (26%) but so is Tarik Cohens (17%) and Gabriel’s (14%). Gabriel is a bye week fill-in or upside play, but he’s also just a good player who’s worth recognizing as such. Sell for more than a second-round pick in dynasty, but don’t hold thinking he could be Allen Robinson either.
Trend of the Week
Something I noticed this week was the high number of elite point per game numbers.
For context, here are some running backs who were in the top 12 in PPR scoring through three games last year: Adrian Peterson (16 games, finished 19th), Chris Thompson (ten games, finished 54th), Carlos Hyde (14 games, finished 49th), Isaiah Crowell (13 games, finished 33rd), Javorius Allen (14 games finished 53rd)
Here are some wide receivers in the top 12 in PPR scoring through three games last year: Emmanuel Sanders (12 games, finished 23rd), Desean Jackson (12 games, finished 42nd), AJ Green (nine games, finished 44th), Calvin Ridley (16 games, finished 22nd) Kenny Golladay (15 games, finished 21st).
The point here isn’t that these aren’t good players but to help put “variance” in real terms to demonstrate how little we know right now. Whether its injury, small sample efficiency spikes or just players returning to a lower talent level average, a lot will change between now and the end of the season. With that in mind, here are some more numbers.
You are looking at the number of players in the last five years to finish at each position with two different levels of production. Since 2014, we have averaged about 13 tight ends with ten or more PPG at the end for the season. This is the same as how many we currently have in 2019. But we have averaged two with 15 PPG or more. In 2019, we currently have six.
What I notice is the high proportion of players especially at wide receiver producing elite numbers. We are 15 players over the average for 15 PPG, and seven over for those with 20 PPG or more.
Now, this may just be a high scoring year. 2015 produced similar end of season numbers, for example. However, I think it’s reasonable to expect a drop in the number of players averaging such high fantasy points.
The same is true of running backs and tight ends. Although they are only over the average significantly when looking at the “elite” tier of production (running backs with 25 PPG and tight ends with 15 PPG.) In other words, it’s the top end who could be about to stumble back to earth.
How is this actionable? Well, this doesn’t mean you should trade all your high scoring players, obviously. 18 PPG will do just fine, and that may well be what happens. However, I think it helps put the production at the top in focus, and also likely means that fantasy points will also start to diffuse through ancillary players as the season moves forward.
Three running backs in 2019 have 25 PPG or more. If I were to bet on the average I think it’s very clear Christian McCaffrey is the most likely to continue that level of production. But it’s important to remember that production is not just opportunity and efficiency, it’s also the type of opportunity these players are getting. In other words, Austin Ekeler’s production could be less sustainable (well, especially now, thanks to Melvin Gordon.) On the other hand, Dalvin Cook’s production is relying on a heavy run bias that is unlikely to continue. His rushing and snap counts are more comparable to Ekeler’s, then McCaffreys, as is his target share.
If Le’Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette’s workloads keep up, their PPR should increase. They are the only players in the NFL currently getting Christian McCaffrey level volume. True, they are in a worse situation, but you can’t benefit from a defensive mistake if you’re not on the field. And they are ALWAYS on the field, and often have the ball in their possession when they are.
Both David Johnson and Nick Chubb saw increases in their target and snap shares last week and are the two running backs with the type of volume we want already.
I continue to be struck by the fact that the only thing holding Phillip Lindsay back is his snap share. Comparing both his and Austin Ekeler’s workload is remarkable. The difference is Lindsay isn’t on the field for half as many snaps, because the coaches are rolling out Royce freeman a lot.
What the UDud Done Did In Week Three
UDud “done did good” in week three. All of the “overproduces” came down in their PPR points and most of them did so by more than ten. However, the “biggest” under producers again failed to produce helpful regression for fantasy. True, we got Mike Evans right, heck we got all of them (mostly) right. But we can’t expect one of the most obvious regression candidates ever to fall in our lap every week. Corey Davis increasing his production to a whopping seven PPR points was not, well, it wasn’t what we wanted. Still, it’s proving useful, so players with high target or snap percentages should still be focused on if they are scoring low UDud.
You can check out the data I’m using this week here.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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