Cornerstone Report: Week Five
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.
Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.
It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.
Last week’s edition can be found here. Also be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
This week we shift gears and examine deeper values in the 2020 class and NFL rookie class.
With a few weeks of data in hand, #Devy and dynasty players are solidifying their opinions of players. Let’s look at two players whose values could exceed current perceptions.
NCAA WEEK FIVE
Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR Liberty
The 6’4″ 220 pound receiver stayed under the radar until his 2018 junior season. Gandy-Golden was not listed on the 247 recruiting service, and had a two star rating from Rivals.com as a 2016 recruit out of Paulding County (Dallas), Georgia.
He appeared on the devy radar this off-season after posting gaudy numbers for the Liberty Flames in 2018.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
We want small school prospects to dominate their team market share production, and Gandy-Golden does. In 2018 he accounted for 29% of Liberty’s receptions, 33% of its receiving yards and 48% of its receiving touchdowns.
He has improved those numbers across the board through four games in 2019, with 32% of the team’s receptions, 49% of its receiving yards and 57% of its touchdown receptions. That earns a thumbs up.
Nothing but respect for @CuseFootball and @CoachBabersCuse! Nothing but class and thanks for the love to @CoachHughFreeze! #RiseWithUs #TougherTogether pic.twitter.com/Iphe7kHEJg
— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) September 1, 2019
We quickly see Gandy-Golden’s style in two clips. He is a big bodied receiver who uses size, body control, high pointing jump ball ability and hand strength to make up for his weaknesses, which include separation, speed and suddenness, though he displays nice quickness in his initial release in this first clip.
https://twitter.com/barstoolflames/status/1168243903327342593
Most of his highlights are similar to this one: contested catches where he can win with size and high pointing ability.
After a slow start to the season Antonio Gandy-Golden has went off against the New Mexico schools in back to back weeks. 7/115/1 #DevyWatch pic.twitter.com/HpNmGuHBVk
— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) October 7, 2018
Gandy-Golden spent the summer with an overall devy ADP in the low 50s, roughly 27th to 29th among 2020 prospects (equating to the 3.03 to 3.05 rookie 2020 pick in dynasty).
The devy drafts and mocks I have seen in-season suggest a slight bump to roughly 25th overall among 2020 prospects (3.01 rookie pick).
He remains unranked (outside the top 65) in the DLF cornerstone rankings, which combine the 2018 through 2020 NFL draft classes.
I’ve repeatedly voiced concern in this column regarding receivers with Gandy-Golden’s profile. The NFL is increasingly prioritizing separation and yards after catch over size and high pointing. Gandy-Golden will need a strong NFL Combine to boost his draft (and dynasty stock). Until then, he presents under the radar value in a draft class that is already legendary. He is worth monitoring as a late round two to early round three dynasty rookie pick.
NFL WEEK FOUR
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
The wide receiver pecking order in Pittsburgh is becoming clearer since Donte Moncrief’s benching. Here is the percentage of snaps played for week three:
JuJu Smith-Schuster – 100%
James Washington – 92%
Diontae Johnson – 79%
Johnny Holton – 9%
Let’s keep digging by examining week three targets:
Smith-Schuster – 7 (13.2% targets per snap)
Diontae Johnson – 6 (14.3%)
James Washington – 4 (8.2%)
So Johnson played fewer snaps than Washington but out-targeted him.
There’s a clear top three pecking order in terms of snaps, but a clear top two in terms of targets (on a per snap basis) in week three. Just looking at raw targets would not uncover this dynamic – useful information, albeit with a small sample size.
Looking at year-to-date totals, even with his relatively quiet weeks one and two, Johnson has accumulated the second most targets (15) among Steelers WRs and has the highest target rate (16.0% targets per snap) among the top three.
Most importantly, Johnson’s PPR production has been on par with Smith-Schuster’s on a per snap basis. Smith-Schuster has produced 0.27 PPR points per snap and Johnson has produced 0.24 (doubling Washington’s 0.12).
While rookie receivers such as Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin get the attention and catchy nicknames, I believe that Johnson is a value player to target.
Much is being made of the connection between Mason Rudolph and James Washington, from Oklahoma State and continuing as Steelers second teamers. But usage and production suggest Johnson could be the receiver to emerge behind Smith-Schuster.
I contend that the dynasty community has not caught on to this move.
Johnson remains unranked in the DLF cornerstone rankings, while Washington is ranked 39th.
He sits at 165 overall in the DLF dynasty rankings, with Washington four rounds higher at 115.
His ADP has fallen nearly 60 spots since the NFL Draft and 32 spots since August.
Our Trade Finder pulls actual MFL trades and shows that he can be had for scraps as recently as the last few days:
9-23-19: Diontae Johnson + 2022 Round 3 for TE Will Dissly, SEA
9-21-19: Diontae Johnson for WR Cole Beasley, BUF + 2020 Round 2
9-20-19: Diontae Johnson for WR Miles Boykin, BAL
9-20-19: Diontae Johnson for 2021 Round 3
I believe Diontae Johnson checks all the boxes as a strong value buy. His ADP has fallen nearly 50 spots since June. DLF rankings have him 50 spots lower than James Washington. Actual MFL trades confirm his low price. Meanwhile, his usage and production numbers reveal strong potential. I’m trying to buy everywhere this week.
Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack and let’s uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
