Lineup Advice: Week 4
Week 4
BYE WEEKS: Jets, 49ers
Firstly, welcome back Mike Evans! After a major disappearing act to begin the season where he scored a combined 15 fantasy (PPR) points, he goes nuts with 190 yards and three touchdowns. I’m sure it was as a result of me saying Chris Godwin is now the WR1 for the Bucs.
I also know of a few who chose to start other quarterbacks over Patrick Mahomes this week, due to his match-up vs. the Ravens. I had a decision myself between Mahomes and Dak but knew I wouldn’t be able to sleep that night if I lost with Dak and Mahomes went big. As it turns out, both Russell Wilson and rookie Daniel Jones put up more points than Mahomes in week three. It’s going to happen but note that Mahomes has yet to put up less than 30 points including vs. that tough Baltimore. The take-away is clear, you don’t bench Mahomes!
We’ve got some intriguing games here in week four:
NE @ BUF
Interesting game here as the surging Bills host the Patriots. The Patriots have a stout pass defense, allowing 186 yards per game. It will be a downgrade for Josh Allen. On the other side of the ball, there isn’t much to limit the Patriots’ production, they remain a juggernaut but can be frustrating to start outside of Tom Brady and Julian Edelman.
WAS @ NYG
This is all about rookie Daniel Jones in his second start. I’m not sure how he follows up last week and you have to expect some regression. Evan Engram is receiver to own and the injury to Saquon Barkley will be on the shelf for six weeks, give or take two weeks. Truth be told, I like Wayne Gallman. He’s not anything close to Barkley in terms of dynamic but he has three-down ability as he possesses good hands. The Redskins allow 142 rushing yards a game and there’s little behind Gallman. He’s a worthy start here in week four.
CLE @ BAL
The only thing I’m watching is Lamar Jackson vs. the Browns defense. The Browns allow 239 yards passing so Jackson could rely on his legs even more. The offense looks a lot like Kansas City with the legs of Jackson making the speed of Hollywood Brown even more dangerous. And, speaking of Brown, his snaps as a % of total offensive snaps have risen three weeks running: 18%, 65% and 75% respectively. He’s an every-week starter now and no worse than a WR3.
TB @ LAR
The Buccaneers allow a league best 70 yards rushing per contest. Match that with Todd Gurley’s absence and you could make a case for benching Gurley this week. But can you really? Sean McVay said today (Tuesday) they need to get Gurley more on-track and into rhythm by providing more carries. I’ve watched most all of Gurley’s snaps and I see very little different about his ability. His touches have declined to 16 per game but I expect that to rise as they start establishing him more. Of course, he may only be a high priced decoy and many dynasty owners are selling. Not me. I am buying Todd Gurley from anyone who has him lower than RB10, representing what I believe is significant value. As for this week, benching Gurley will come down to who else you have to start.
Game on!
I hope you have a great week four!
2019 Lineup Advice – PLEASE READ before posting
To our knowledge, DLF is the only fantasy site that answers your specific lineup questions all seventeen weeks of the NFL regular season and into the post-season as well. It’s just another feature we offer our valued premium subscribers.
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2019 Lineup Advice
Each year as we near kick-off off of the new season and begin developing our in-season content plan, one of my fellow DLF co-owners approaches me and asks: “You going to do lineup advice again?” After all, from the first year we started offering “personalized” lineup advice to DLF members each and every week of the NFL season, our membership has grown eight-fold. It’s no longer a simple or quick process.
Simply put, I wouldn’t have it any other way! It’s part of our value proposition to each of you and, most importantly, it’s one of the ways I get to know our members individually. Interfacing with each of you is what makes what we’re doing here so special, and we very much hope you see and enjoy that difference. We’re a unicorn in the fantasy space.
But our growing membership base is forcing me to make a few changes to ensure I can keep up with the volume and still provide the quality input you’ve come to expect. Rare are the questions which I can simply “pop off” an answer to. With each one, I research up to seven different variables to arrive at my response and that takes time.
Please see below for my notes concerning this service for 2018. I ask that you read them and hold to them toward helping me help more of you. And, perhaps, helping me to keep my sanity.
Important Notes:
• NEW: If at all possible, please don’t submit your question until AFTER the Thursday night game, unless it involves a player playing on Thursday night. This allows me to concentrate on the TNF game first while also allowing more time for injury news from the previous week. Because of the popularity, I answer questions as they come in and much can change in a few days.
• Because of our comment system, it’s VERY easy to miss your response(s) to my advice. I don’t get alerts to new questions or responses you make to my response to you. I have to physically scroll from top to bottom each time to look for responses. Depending on the number of questions each week, I may miss any response to my advice. When in doubt, make a new entry at the bottom and reference your earlier question if needed.
• Please limit your questions to no more than three within each entry! I love helping each of you but it’s not uncommon to receive a question involving an entire team or set of teams. DLF continues to grow and the popularity is such that I must ask you to limit your questions! If you absolutely must ask more than three, please do so as a separate question/entry.
• Scoring System – Let me know if your league is PPR, non-PPR or if there are any unusual scoring rules that would affect the advice.
• I always like to see what YOU are thinking on your question(s) first. On those “coin-flip” plays, as I call them, knowing which way you are leaning helps me.
• My crystal ball isn’t perfect and I can assure you I “feel” any advice which ends up being incorrect. I do often go back and check my last week’s advice. I’m very proud of my track record and like to think I’m more accurate than the “Magic 8-Ball” approach but, in the end, it’s only an guess. An educated guess, but still only a guess. Go easy on me. I’m hard enough on me for both of us.
• I cannot be the coach of your team and all advice is just that: “advice”. Ultimately, the decision is yours to make and you should always be fully accountable to that. Look to me as that little person on your shoulder chiming in with his thoughts.
• Do NOT wait until game-day to ask your questions! Life here at DLF can be very busy as is my life away from DLF. Waiting until game day runs the risk of not getting a response. I always make an attempt to check before kick-off on game day, but I can’t guarantee it. It’s always best to give me at least 24 hours.
• It’s not uncommon for me to answer questions out of order due to injury status of a mentioned player, players who play earlier in the week or any number of other reasons. If it looks like I’ve skipped you, I likely have saved you for later until I have more information. It’s also possible your question is too long and I’m prioritizing other more easily answered questions. Brief questions always get priority as I can answer more of them quickly.
• I rarely answer questions after kick-off of the first games on Sunday. I often am away to watch the games and can’t guarantee I will/can check. If I’m available and able, I do try to check in.
• HAVE FUN! I so enjoy interfacing with each of you and look forward to your comments to my advice while following along with how your team is performing. This game has a lot to offer us die-hard fans, so don’t let its twists and turns, injuries and/or run of bad luck remove any of the enjoyment. Win or lose, there’s always next week or next year!
Good luck this year. Fortune favors the bold – but there’s no substitute for preparation. Now, let’s go have some fun!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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