IDP Waiver Wire: Week Three
The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week two and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!
Since this is a brand-new weekly column I will be running, we are going to start out with three different avenues to uncover IDP talent, and we will figure out together which ones are most important.
The first of three measures will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
The second will be purely a comparison of snap counts. If someone earns more playing time than we may have expected this year, then they are an obvious waiver consideration. In fantasy football (and ESPECIALLY IDP fantasy football), opportunity is king. Unless you are Demarcus Lawrence, it is really difficult to succeed in IDP as a top tier asset if you are in a DL rotation employed in Dallas. Playing time = tackle opportunities = points. Groundbreaking analysis, I know.
Lastly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete of the three measures, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys, so this will be a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Season Totals:
Disruption Score~ 4 Busts, 4 Average, 2 Hits
Snap Counts~ 2 Busts, 4 Average, 0 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 3 Busts, 1 Average, 3 Hits
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Oshane Ximines, DE NYG (Disruption Score: 39.23)
Ximines is a player I have been quietly tracking up until now. After a slow start in week one (just one tackle), a slightly better start in week two (two tackles and 0.5 sacks), Ximenes has shown even more promise in week three, racking up four tackles and one sack on the day. The third-round defensive end set the all-time sack record at Old Dominion, and he will look to further bolster those numbers and keep his trajectory soaring upward against the struggling Washington Redskins next Sunday. Add him now if your league mates didn’t catch on this off-season.
Linebacker
Eric Wilson, LB MIN (Disruption Score: 86.87)
My job may be to write an IDP waiver article that uncovers new talent every week, but Eric Wilson was nowhere even close to being on my radar. When you post 11 tackles (seven solo) and two sacks, however, you have no choice but to take notice. Wilson had as many sacks against Oakland as he had his entire career on Sunday, with double-digit tackles to boot. Wilson played nine percent of tackles in week one, 49% week two, and upwards of 85% of snaps this week. Wilson is definitely a player who is trending up at the right time and has the chance to snag a major part in that stout Minnesota defense.
Snap Count-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Johnathan Hankins, DL OAK (Snap Count: 82%)
Clelin Ferrell is obviously the hot name amongst an ice-cold Oakland defensive line, but Hankins deserves some attention with his performance of late. Hankins has compiled 12 tackles over his past two games, which is a great tackle floor along the defensive line for IDP production. He is yet to earn a sack this season (no surprise in Oakland), but the name is absolutely worth monitoring and/or trading for if all you need is someone who won’t leave you with a bagel.
Linebacker
Damien Wilson, OLB KAN (Snap Count: 91%)
Wilson is really establishing himself in Kansas City. I normally do not recommend playing outside linebackers in leagues without an “EDGE” designation, but a solid player in Kansas City is basically my lone exception. As the Chiefs offense rolls no matter the opponent (see: Patrick Mahomes’ unreal stats against Baltimore), the Chiefs defense will face plenty of quarterback dropbacks as they try to get back in the game, which is a gold mine for Wilson. The Chiefs offense is my lone exception in typical yards per play in my offensive projections model, and the Chiefs’ edge rushers are my favorite cheap stashes in dynasty IDP.
Defensive Backs
Tracy Walker, S DET (Snap Count: 100%)
Those examining box scores the last few weeks probably already know this name, but I am putting him here simply to validate your thoughts on Walker and to confirm he is not going anywhere. Some flashy names in the past have popped up with a handful of targets while a star nurses an injury, but with Walker, this is not the case. The Lions defense sets up beautifully to support several defensive backs in IDP settings, giving Walker, Quandre Diggs, and Darius Slay plenty of reasons to stay on your roster.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Efe Obada, DE CAR (Week 4, @ Houston)
Obada is currently second on the team in tackles among defensive ends. After entering the hearts of many via Amazon’s “All or Nothing: Carolina Panthers” feature, Obada has the chance to bring an immense sense of pride to his former rugby pals with the London Warriors. Deshaun Watson has been running away from pressure more than he’s been able to actually run the ball forward, and Obada will look to bring him down all day long.
Tyeler Davison, DT ATL (Week 4, vs. Tennessee)
Although Davison hasn’t gotten to the quarterback in his first 12 tackles of the season, there isn’t a better matchup than against Marcus Mariota and the Titans. The Jaguars got to Mariota nine(!) times last Thursday, and Dan Quinn’s Falcons will do their best to repeat the same results. By this logic, I like anyone along the Atlanta defensive line if you are desperate next week.
Linebacker
Ryan Connelly, LB NYG (Week 4, vs. Washington)
With Saquon Barkley possibly missing time in week four, Daniel Jones is going to be forced to throw the ball more than he is probably comfortable doing. Despite the Redskins’ 0-2 start, their defense really isn’t *terrible* on paper, and for that reason I think Washington will be able to control the clock on offense. This means great things for Ryan Connelly, who was able to rack up seven tackles against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Defensive Backs
Daryl Worley, CB OAK (Week 4, @ Indianapolis)
Say what you want about Jacoby Brissett being a massive downgrade from Andrew Luck (…because it’s true), but the one thing that’s for sure is that he will complete a high percentage of his passes. That has kind of been Brissett’s M.O. even in his college days (Go Pack!), and that should lead to a ton of easy tackles for Worley to soak up all throughout the day against either T.Y. Hilton or Parris Campbell. You don’t have to be an All-Pro cornerback to be relevant in IDP scoring. In fact, the worse you are, the better odds you have as finishing as a starting DB1/DB2.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
