Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Two
For anyone new, this is the weekly column I write that DLF has kindly allowed me to mind splurge in about usage and opportunity in the hunt for interesting trends and potential edges in fantasy football. Say a small prayer for our editor, James Simpson (@JS_Football), who has to pretty all this up for you all, and then buckle up. Because this ride isn’t for casual players; winners and grinders only.
Today I want to talk about the results of last week’s UDud scores, the improvements I’ve made to it this week, and break down some interesting rushing depth chart using target and snap share data from 4for4.com. I also want to dig in more specifically on target share and who may see a bounce back sooner rather than later.
So let’s get to it.
Last week’s results
Almost everyone who overproduced based on their usage in week one came back to earth in week two.
However, it’s also clear that many who “dropped off” maintained great production. Derrick Henry did drop ten PPR points from week one, but his 17 PPR points in week two were nothing to fear. That’s worth remembering.
We had mixed results in the underproducer column.
Overall most produced more, but only two players really came round to being fantasy-relevant: Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. Outside of Devonta Freeman, this suggests that the place a running back has on the depth chart matters a lot for the position. At wide receiver, we saw positive gains from Corey Davis, but a more positive matchup can only do so much for a number one receiver on the Titans.
Moving into week two, I’ve improved the target share average by pulling in a five-year history of production. I’ve also installed a “floor” for opportunity so those getting less volume are not being judged by the standards of those getting league-leading touches.
Week Two UDud
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
He will be a top-12 running back as long as his role, and his health continues. I think that’s clear. He has locked down a workhorse snap share for the Chargers and the fourth-highest target share of the position. Le’Veon bell is the only player who has a higher snap % and higher target share right now. Even the top 12 can’t produce 30 PPG for the whole season. But going up against Houston in week three doesn’t suggest the volume will slow down, even with Justin Jackson being efficient on lesser volume. The pair have been splitting the team’s red zone touches almost 50/50 through the first two weeks as well giving Jackson flex upside in a pinch.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
This is a running team and Derrick Henry is all about that life. However, given his 10% target share is less than other running backs in the top 12. That would worry me more if he didn’t have the same target percentage as Dion Lewis right now. Dion Lewis occupying a 46% snap share on this offense is cause for concern but Henry is an every-week start right now.
Sammy Watkins, WR KC
While I enjoyed Demarcus Robinson going off in week two, it’s important to note that Sammy Watkins still led the team in targets by a significant degree. Patrick Mahomes will throw 100 yards and three touchdowns to whoever is open, apparently. Given Watkins’ volume, it’s going to be him again, eventually. His UDud is inflated, still, after the last time this happened in week one.
Demarcus Robinson, WR KC
He needs to earn a higher target share or he won’t outproduce Sammy Watkins every week. He clearly has upside in this offense, and it’s worth noting he split the same number of targets with Mecole Hardman last week.
Leonard Fournette, RB JAC
No one underperformed their volume by ten or more PPR points in week two. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that Leonard Fournette is playing on 94% of his teams’ snaps and has an 18% (yes eighteen!) target share right now. Running backs on bad offenses aren’t very attractive. But with this kind of volume it may not matter. This hasn’t really shown up in the box score yet either.
Corey Davis, WR TEN
I still believe! His production should improve over the course of the season, but for right now that does not look too promising for fantasy. I mean, I’m happy to see Derrick Henry and Delanie Walker back like everyone else but could a wide receiver get just a little love over here? Sheesh.
Backfield Splits
Something I wanted to mention this week was how well snap % breaks down running back depth charts. It’s a great way of looking for spike weeks or future potential. So, let’s take a look at some of the most over and under-discussed backfields at the moment.
Seattle
Teams lean on draft capital. It’s not fair. It’s not right. It doesn’t make sense a lot of the time. But a team literally preferred Laquon Treadwell over both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs once upon a time. It happens. We’re here to score points not talk about our feelings on the matter.
Despite Chris Carson’s three fumbles in week two, I don’t think Seattle is immediately going to roll out Rashaad Penny on 60%+ of their snaps. Carson is good! And his usage is also a hair above running backs in other committees. Yes, Penny’s rushing work went up in week two (and he did well on it!) but the team will probably stick with Carson for now – especially since they won.
But the change is (in my opinion) probably coming… eventually.
Denver
Royce Freeman is hot on the heels of Phillip Lindsay (who is also an UDFA and is also very good). Right now, Lindsay is keeping the lead role largely through target share with only a slight edge in rushing attempts. Freeman is actually managing to be a hair more efficient on those touches. I don’t think it will change out of thin air but Freeman continues to look like a threat to take over the depth chart.
Atlanta
Devonta Freeman has been nothing but disappointing for two weeks and Ito smith is holding a significant share of the snaps. But Freeman has also had tough matchups while returning from missing all but two games in 2018. I think the fact he is dominating the rushing opportunities (it compares to the split in Denver for example) suggests that his production could well rebound as the season goes on. Keep an eye on Smith, but the real danger at the moment is the wide receivers.
Running backs have accounted for only three of the team’s eight touches in the red zone. Another word of caution, though a small sample size: Ito Smith has more red zone touches than Freeman at the moment. Smith seems to have the rushing attempt inside the five (all… both of them) locked down.
That means Freeman will have to rely more on passing opportunities in the red zone for touchdowns. Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are outperforming their targets in this area of the field right now according to the expected point’s formula I run every week. But Austin Hooper is another source of competition for quality red-zone targets.
All that being said, if Freeman’s usage remains this high, it is more than possible for him to bounce back to at least RB2 status at some point in 2019. In week three, Atlanta faces off against the Indianapolis Colts, by far the easiest rushing defense they have faced to this point.
Green Bay
For one week, at least, the Green Bay backfield looked something like what a lot of us had expected for a while. However, as we know by now, Jamaal Williams is a good enough NFL player to play spoiler, and the team has a tendency to lean on a more even split. Going up against a Denver defence which grades out as their easiest rushing matchup they have had in 2019 (and just allowed the Bears to roll up over 150 rushing yards and breakout game for David Montgomery) is tempting. However, my Spidey Senses, and this news blurb from Rotoworld about coaches “evening up” the touches, say it’s less certain.
Chicago
Week one was a rocky start from the rookie on the Bears. But in week two, David Montgomery took command of the opportunity share for the position and delivered. As I suggested in week one, this didn’t mean Tarik Cohen went away. His 21% target share ranks third for running backs. There is a path for both of these talents to be fantasy options. Week three also offers a fairly nice matchup against a Washington team that ranks 29th-worst in rushing defense according to Sharp Football Stats.
Target Share leaders
Let’s focus on wide receivers and target share for a moment.
Instead of posting a screenshot of the leaders in target share which you can find anywhere (or just use the data link at the end to find it for yourself), let’s focus on those underperforming their opportunity using UDud. Below is every player with over a 22% target share who also performed under expected in our UDud.
There are only four players who have a huge target share and less than 14 targets through two games (seven targets a game): Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf.
Unsurprisingly, they all come from very well-known pass-phobic offenses. Unlike Jamison Crowder, none of those players suffer for value of targets. All of their aDots are over ten yards down the field (Thielen 14.9, Diggs, 20.9, Evans, 18, Metcalf, 16.7 – per airyards.com). They get air yards, and they have a high portion of their team’s offense. Their team’s offense just isn’t very big.
The other name that catches my eye here is Allen Robinson, who has averaged ten targets per game (seven in week two) and has underperformed that volume by about the same amount as these low target, but high target share players.
Allen Robinson, WR CHI
Through two weeks, it’s become very clear that Robinson is healthy and very much the alpha in the Chicago Bears’ passing game (again). Having disappointed in week two with four PPR points, I would expect him to bounce back this week again Washington. Facing both the Eagles and the Cowboys this year has probably been an unbalance test for Washington’s passing defense, nevertheless, the target leader on the Bears is in a pretty interesting spot this week as a regression candidate.
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Okay, the team isn’t going to come to its senses and increase its passing attempts. But this week, they face the Oakland Raiders, a team that allowed Joe Flacco and his 21 passing attempts (Minnesota’s 2019 high is 14) to help Courtland Sutton to a 120-yard receiving day and Emmanuel Sanders to 86 yards and a touchdown. What’s more, I think it’s interesting that Thielen has yet to get a red-zone target (Diggs has two inside the 15-yard line) given that he has easily lead the team in red-zone targets each of the past two years. Lower volume is one thing, but eventually Thielen’s red-zone targets will come.
Mike Evans, WR TB
I get it, Chris Godwin is your captain now. I agree. But, Mike Evans is still the air yards leader and he is the lowest-performing player on a 28%+ target share according to UDud. Digging into his stats a little more, I found his efficiency in RACR (an airyards.com metric for how well a player turns air yards into receiving yards) to be 0.38, that’s low even by Mike Evans’ standard (the position average is around 0.69). In short, even Evans shouldn’t be expected to underperform this level of targets and air yards volume for very long. Back to back weeks less than 11 PPR points, is ridiculous. They play the very well “organized” and “fearsome” New York Giants this week.
If you catch someone in your league asleep at the wheel and willing to trade Mike Evans as a wide receiver two right now, well, I’d strongly consider doing that.
DK Metcalf, WR SEA
The man appears to be good. Any reservation you had about his size, or his ability to turn a corner faster than a cruise liner with and damaged rudder in a storm, should be allowed to die now. Also, while Tyler Locket has had the bigger target week (12 in week two) Metcalf has had back-to-back games with six and seven targets. He’s looking like the more consistent option in an inconsistent passing game.
Defensive Matchup Bonus
Kenny Golladay, WR DET
This has nothing to do with anything but I noticed while doing defensive research that almost everyone has had a good receiving day against the Eagles. Kenny Golladay has had back-to-back weeks of nine or more targets and Matthew Stafford doesn’t seem to be retired anymore – as some people seemed to have assumed this off-season.
Rookie Bonus
JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR PHI
Tired of the same old rookies being good two weeks into the season? Well, it might be time for another. Every wide receiver decided to get hurt at the same time last week for the Eagles, and that leaves Nelson Agholor as the main competition for targets. Mack Hollins is another potential volume riser in week three. I’m a big fan of Whiteside and just in case this is the last chance to acquire him for his current dynasty value, I thought I’d mention it.
Tight End
Just so the position doesn’t feel left out, I thought I’d mention two deeper target and usage highlights.
Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
Don’t like my Adam Thielen spin? Well Rudolph technically has a 15% target share (six total targets.) That ranks 11th in the NFL at the position.
Gerald Everett, TE LAR
Not for nothing but Everett is getting crazy red zone use through two weeks. He leads the team with four targets inside the 20-yard line and even one rushing attempt. So far he’s failed to convert any of them into touchdowns, but the fact they are trying to get him involved in that part of the field means that he could provide solid production any given week. If you are in a jam with an injury, like David Njoku, or just struggling at the position, I don’t’ hate the idea of picking him up.
I highly recommend getting an aerial view of team’s usages this way if you’re trying to understand or breakdown how players have and might perform in the future.
Anyway, that’s all for this week, folks. I hope you found it useful and interesting. Thanks for checking it out.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
