Twitter Observations: Week Two
If you thought news with dynasty implications would slow down last week just because the season started, week two promptly slapped you upside the head. It’s early but we’ve had several injuries, developments and more that will have a direct impact on yours (and my) dynasty teams. Let’s open up Twitter and see what we have.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a re-draft slant to it but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Headed to Hollywood
Most Receiving Yards Through A Receiver's First Two Career Games (Since 1996)
1. Anquan Boldin – 279
2. Marquise Brown – 233
3. Stefon Diggs – 216
4. Will Fuller – 211
5. Terry McLaurin – 187
6. Randy Moss – 184
7. DeAndre Hopkins – 183— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 16, 2019
Remember when people said this 2019 Draft class wasn’t good? Remember when a lot of people said punt on rookies until 2020? Those who held the line are being rewarded, and then some. In Marquise Brown’s case, his Dynasty ADP initially began at 118 but sunk to 135 and was surpassed by several other receivers thanks to lingering health issues that knocked him out of most of the preseason. But once the regular season started, Brown cranked his amp to 11, having the second-best first two games by any rookie receiver in close to 25 years.
Terry McLaurin’s was trending in the opposite direction, starting at an ADP of 225 and settling in at 155. His rise may be even more improbable since he was largely forgotten going into rookie drafts after never being the top target at Ohio State and seemingly being a one-trick pony with his 4.35 speed.
Dynasty Impact: It’s clear both Brown and McLaurin were initially undervalued but what about going forward? The tweet above includes studs with the ‘worst’ of the bunch being Will Fuller who’s shown amazing promise if not for a multitude of injuries. It’s fair to view both Brown and McLaurin as dynasty WR2s as both are young (Brown is just 22!), both appear to be their team’s top receiver, and both are tied to a young, promising quarterback to throw them the ball.
Old Man R(ece)iver
Larry Fitzgerald is tied for third in targets (24) and fifth in the NFL in air yards (268).
He has a legit chance to be a WR1 this year
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 16, 2019
Larry Fitzgerald very well could have walked away from the reclamation project in Arizona. He’s earned his money and probably could have gone to a host of contenders in search of a ring. But he stayed home and is now catching passes from a competent quarterback again and all he’s done is lead the team in targets, receptions and yards so far this season. Not bad for a 36-year old.
Dynasty Impact: If you have a contending dynasty team, consider trading for Fitzgerald. The age is enough to keep the price low (you’re not trading for JuJu Smith-Schuster) but you’re still getting WR1 production. For example, Fitzgerald has 100-yard games in each game this season and that’s with a very raw Kyler Murray. Wait until later in the season when Murray has a further grasp of the offense and the NFL. It’s not as if Fitzgerald is slowing down anytime soon. You won’t find a better combo of price and production for your dynasty team. And as they say in baseball: ‘Flags fly forever.’
Changing of the Guard
Either Drew Brees or Big Ben have led the NFL in passing yards in 6 of the last 8 seasons (they tied in 2014).
The last time both QBs didn't play in the same week was Week 17 of 2004, which was Roethlisberger's rookie season and Brees' 4th NFL season with the Chargers. pic.twitter.com/1cN5OGpGkV
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 16, 2019
Think about that. 15 years since neither one of these future Hall of Famers played the same week. There are literally high school students who weren’t alive when that happened! But time (and injuries) catch up to everyone and they have with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger.
Dynasty Impact: Both Brees and Roethlisberger were getting up in age anyway but these injuries probably eliminated any chance to trade them away to a contender in your dynasty league. Even if they were to come back next year, both will be coming off significant injuries.
If anything, this could be a good time to target certain Saints and Steelers studs that may appear to decline in value with this news but will still be productive. Whether it’s Michael Thomas or JuJu Smith-Schuster, there will never be a better time to cut a deal.
New School
Top-5 tight ends in target share so far this year (before Sunday night's game).
1. Mark Andrews: 27.9%
2. Evan Engram: 24.7%
3. George Kittle: 24.5%
4. Delanie Walker: 24.5%
5. Darren Waller: 23.8%— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 16, 2019
Yes, it’s early in the season but if it’s fair to wonder if these tight ends are part of the new top tier at the position. It’s so hard for tight ends to make big plays like their receiver counterparts so volume is a key component of their fantasy success. The five players above have been the most productive, fantasy-wise, this season and this is a big reason why.
Dynasty Impact: After entering this season with only a handful of bankable fantasy tight ends, several options have emerged and filled the fantasy pipeline. People expected rookies TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant to enter the conversation but most were sleeping on Mark Andrews and Darren Waller. Hindsight is always 20/20 but the signs were there.
For Andrews, he was one of the best, if not the best, receiving tight ends in last years draft and is now paired with an exciting, good and young quarterback who appears to have zeroed in on him. He’s now a top-ten dynasty tight end with room to grow. For Waller, his road to fantasy success was much less obvious. After entering the league as a receiver, he’s been suspended more often than not but finally got his act together enough to land a spot on the Raiders and fill the role Jared Cook had last year when he made the Pro Bowl. He may be 27 but there’s still a lot of tread left on those tires.
Live Freeman or Die Hard
Is Royce Freeman better than Phillip Lindsay? Serious question.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) September 15, 2019
It’s a fair question. After an extremely odd 2018 in which Lindsay, the undrafted free agent running back, averaged 5.4 yards-per-carry and gained over 1,000 yards on less than 200 carries, he appears to have come back down to Earth. He has yet to crack 100 yards on 24 carries and hasn’t scored this season. Meanwhile, Freeman, the third-round pick from 2018, is improving on last years numbers, gaining 110 yards on the ground with just 21 carries. Freeman is even gaining more through the air, averaging 8.8 yards-per-reception compared to Lindsay’s 6.6.
Dynasty Impact: It took nearly all of the 2018 season for Lindsay’s dynasty ADP to surpass Freeman’s but it made sense. Lindsay turned in one of the most efficient rookie seasons ever and his ADP topped out at 55. But it still may have been premature if the start of the 2019 season is any indication. The lack of efficiency is a concern but there’s also the fact that Lindsay is two years older than Freeman while lacking the draft pedigree Freeman, a third-round pick, has. Currently Lindsay’s ADP is 66 while Freeman checks-in at 90 but I suspect the two to swap ADP rankings again.
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