Cornerstone Report: Week Three

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.

Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.

It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.

Last week’s edition can be found here. Also, be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.

A lot to discuss this week after real NFL games give us valuable data points. But let’s start with a college prospect.

NCAA WEEK TWO

Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

In last week’s report, I alluded to red flags in Bryan Edwards’ NFL draft profile. We also see the NFL starting to prioritize separation among wide receivers over big bodies with ball skills. At 6’3” and 215 pounds, Edwards fits in the latter category.

And rightly or not, supporting cast still influences player evaluation (see: Cam Akers) despite the increasing adoption of advanced metrics such as market share and dominator rating.

After South Carolina lost starting quarterback Jake Bentley to a fractured foot, in stepped former top 75 overall recruit and highly regarded true freshman Ryan Hilinski.

Edwards immediately benefited from this change. After managing just one catch for seven yards in the season opener against North Carolina, Edwards produced an encouraging 5-112-2 line in week two.

There is plenty to like about Edwards’ prospect profile. His breakout age of 17.9 years – a fair predictor of NFL success – is legendary within the devy community. He has steadily produced throughout his career despite injuries and will be just 21 years old on week one of his rookie season.

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In a recent mock draft combining the 2020 and 2021 draft classes, Edwards was selected at 2.10, between Tee Higgins and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

His devy ADP currently sits at 14th overall and 12th among the 2020 class, and has held steady throughout the summer.

I see limited opportunity for appreciation given the depth and quality of this incoming receiver class. But it also speaks to the quality of the class when someone with the tape and metrics profile of Edwards projects as an early second-round rookie pick.

NFL WEEK ONE

We finally get actionable data from real games, and saw multiple historic performances from such a “down” rookie class.

Kyler Murray, QB ARI

Through the first three quarters of his first NFL game, Kyler Murray threw nine passes for 70 yards and an interception. But look what happened in the fourth quarter and overtime to ultimately produce a 300-yard passing game.

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Adjusted yards per attempt of 10.2 in the fourth quarter is a top tier product. But Murray has long exceled in this measure of efficiency, as I highlighted in my projection of Arizona’s new offense back in June. Murray was the most efficient college quarterback, as measured by career adjusted yards per attempt, to be drafted in the top half of round one in the last ten years.

Brian Baldinger says that Kyler Murray is already changing the way defenses play.

The DLF Trade Finder shows real life trades on MyFantasyLeague involving Murray since Sunday.

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Marquise Brown, WR BAL

Despite playing only 14 snaps against the Dolphins (18% of Baltimore’s plays), Marquise Brown posted a 4-147-2 receiving line in his NFL debut. He became the first player in the NFL to score multiple 40-yard touchdowns in his first game. His 147 receiving yards were the sixth most in an NFL debut.

Brown sits at 44th overall in DLF’s cornerstone rankings, but I am, by far, the highest on him among the DLF ranking crew – he is all the way up at 26th on my board (and has been since the preseason), which combines first and second-year NFL players and expected 2020 rookies. My comments on Brown:

“Size does not concern me in today’s NFL but BAL passing volume does. Had more fun watching his film than any other ’19 prospect.”

Brown’s week one efficiency is not sustainable (2.2 fantasy points per snap and 6.1 points per target are the small sample size results of which dreams are made), but Brown showed he is healed and ready, showed his size may be a strength rather than a concern and showed that he is capable of fantasy relevance with low volume.

Marquise Brown’s start reminds me of Tyreek Hill’s rookie season, when analysts (sometimes myself included) contended that Hill’s production was not sustainable. Hill has gone on to be a consistent top ten positional finisher in fantasy.

TJ Hockenson, TE DET

Hockenson’s first game was also historic as his 124 receiving yards are the most ever by a tight end in an NFL debut.

Digging deeper, there is a lot to be excited about. Hockenson had 131 air yards, 11th most of any player during week one, and easily the most among tight ends (Jimmy Graham was second with 117). His nine targets tied for second-most on the team (Danny Amendola; 13) and were good for a 22% target share.

Hockenson’s overall ADP has steadily risen from its first measurement in February (132) to its August rank of 92 – and should continue to rise.

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This value is reflected in recent trades on MFL:

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And remember that Hockenson is a three-down player who is far from a liability in the run game.

Hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. What are some other rookie or class of 2020 performances worth noting? Find me on twitter at @threedownhack. Thanks for reading.

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