Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week One
I will be writing an article every week on usage trends and patterns in the NFL. This year instead of focusing on target share and receiving opportunity I’ll be using snap data from our partners at 4for4.com as well. Since snaps predict running back points better than anything else, this will help us look into running back usage as well as opportunity patterns box scores and even percentage stats may miss. For wide receiver and tight end, targets and target share still rules. So I will continue to use target data weighed against snaps.
As always, volume is still king: whether it is snaps, targets or the size of your cup, more is more.
For this first instalment, with only one week of data to draw on, I decided to create a formula that weights production of players against player their usage. I’m calling it the UDud, for Usage Differential…ud. I like naming things, but I never said I was good at it.
In essence we can now look and see whose week one production is unsustainable moving forward with similar usage. As the season goes forward, we should expect a few of our usage assumptions to be incorrect. Opportunity can increase and decrease based on performance, for example, so some of these week one stars should expect to see more snaps and targets. As we know, players often surprise us later in the season compared to how they started.
But we can only work with what we have. So, let’s check it out.
Who overperformed based on their usage?
Here are the top 12 overperformers and everyone who was ten PPR points above expected based on their snap and targets shares in week one. We should expect their per-game numbers to normalize (fall) over the course of the season – based on current usage anyway.
Who underperformed?
And here are the top 12 players who underperformed based on their usage. We should expect their points per game to improve (rise) over the course of the season if their usage continues at the same level.
Notes
Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
I think the only reason he is on the list is that no one is being used as much or in as valuable a manner as McCaffrey this year (so far). I expect him to continue to frustrate the UDud in 2019 by always being way too productive. It’s a good thing.
Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
I wouldn’t panic on the “new Alvin Kamara” as some people (me) are calling him. However, I want him to get more snaps or we should see some variance to his weekly performance. Justin Jackson has a solid game and in the right game script that could be a path to Ekeler’s stud-ly numbers dropping for example. Whatever it is, without an increased share of snaps, his per-game numbers should drop.
Every Breakout WR this week
Almost every great wide receiver performance this week was based on exciting long-distance plays. You don’t need me to tell you that those are not dependable week to week. John Ross – and especially Marquise Brown – are going to need to get on the field a little more if they are going to be weekly options.
Malcolm Brown, RB LAR
Red zone usage can cure a lot of running back production. But even though he is definitely (surprisingly) the guy splitting work with Todd Gurley in 2019, we shouldn’t expect a 27% snap share to lead to many more top-12 weeks.
Pittsburgh wide receivers
There is a lot of volume going unclaimed in Pittsburgh so far. It’s not time to give up on Donte Moncrief and James Washington just yet. JuJu Smith-Schuster should have a very good year.
Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
Should provide usable running back production for those rostering him this season. If he can stay healthy and keep up this usage level. Stay the course.
Aaron Jones, RB GB
Should bounce up… I’ve been saying that a while though.
Davante Adams, WR GB
Try not to panic. He can’t score 15 or more points every week, every year, after all.
Corey Davis, WR TEN
His three targets and AJ Brown‘s breakout game are hiding the fact that Davis was on the field a lot more as the primary receiver. He suffering tough coverage and some bad throws. Maybe don’t quit just yet.
Leonard Fournette, RB JAX and Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
I think both are risky, but their usage says they should return more points game to game than week one may have implied. If nothing else, a better sell window is likely coming in the future.
Here is the full table and the data I used to create it.
Hope you all killed it in week one. Good luck on the waiver wire and I will see you again next and every week this season looking for under and overvalued players based on recent performance.
Thanks for checking it out.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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