IDP Waiver Wire: Week One
The world of IDP fantasy football is definitely a tricky landscape. While someone seems to erupt out of nowhere on any given week, there are ways to uncover them before they break out. Let’s dig in for week two and see which players have put themselves in the best position to earn their way on an IDP roster!
Since this is a brand new weekly column I will be running, we are going to start out with three different avenues to uncover IDP talent, and we will figure out together which ones are most important.
The first of three measures will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score. This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
The second will be purely a comparison of snap counts. If someone earns more playing time than we may have expected this year, then they are an obvious waiver consideration. In fantasy football (and ESPECIALLY IDP fantasy football), opportunity is king. Unless you are Demarcus Lawrence, it is really difficult to succeed in IDP as a top tier asset if you are in a DL rotation employed in Dallas. Playing time = tackle opportunities = points. Groundbreaking analysis, I know.
Lastly, I will purely assess the matchups for the following week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete of the three measures, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys, so this will be a section dedicated to that.
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 50 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 15 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Season Totals:
Disruption Score~ 0 Busts, 0 Average, 0 Hits
Snap Counts~ 0 Busts, 0 Average, 0 Hits
Matchup Preview~ 0 Busts, 0 Average, 0 Hits
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Sam Hubbard, DE CIN (Disruption Score: 29.00)
Hubbard posted a Disruption Score of 29.00 in week one. To put this into perspective, only 15% of all defensive lineman since 2000 have posted a season with a disruption score greater than 20. Some players post insanely high Disruption Scores due to small sample sizes (looking at you, Devon Kennard), but for Hubbard to do this with 10 total tackles to boot is absolutely noteworthy. Hubbard struggled to generate a ton of pressures last season, but he appears to have taken a step forward in 2019. A younger prospect on an aging Cincinnati defensive line, Hubbard has the potential to be a consistent IDP asset for years.
Cameron Wake, DE TEN (347.22)
As mentioned above, we probably won’t see Wake have 2.5 sacks and post such a ridiculous Disruption Score every week at the age of 37. Notably, however, Wake has posted the best Disruption Score seasons of all time since 2000 for all players at the age of 34, 35, and 36. He must have found an unlimited source of adamantium
Linebacker
Preston Smith, OLB GB (Disruption Score: 122.00)
Normally I do not promote OLB’s in formats that do not have an “EDGE” designation (all leagues and sites should, but that’s a discussion for another day…), but Smith may be an exception in the former Clay Matthews role. Smith posted a Disruption Score of 122, which is Von Miller territory. Smith was excellent at getting to the quarterback in his days with the Redskins, and I expect more of the same in Green Bay’s scheme. He is an interesting LB3 to stash on matchup-dependent weeks, with a favorable matchup against Minnesota in week two.
Matthew Judon, OLB BAL (55.56)
Another Disruptive linebacker worth stashing is Matthew Judon. He had a sack, two tackles for loss, and two quarterback hits in just 39 total snaps in week one, and although the matchup was pristine against Miami, that may be Judon’s season low in snaps. He has always had a knack pressuring the quarterback, and with lead OLB Za’Darius Smith now in Green Bay, Judon has the role fully to himself. Good football teams get into positive game scripts, and the opposing team has to throw more often from behind as a result. Increase the QB dropbacks due to this and Judon has fifteen to twenty chances to hit the quarterback on a weekly basis. Judon has legitimate upside in the Ravens defense.
Notable: Blake Martinez, LB GB. Despite playing the middle linebacker role, Martinez still posted a Disruption Score of 12.24 week one. This is an insanely impressive score for someone who is not an exclusive edge rusher, and this (plus is high tackle floor) is enough reason for me to prefer Martinez over other IDP studs such as Leighton Vander Esch, C.J. Mosley, and Fred Warner the rest of the way via trade.
Defensive Backs
Defensive Back scoring is not very relevant to Disruption Score, but two names that surprised were James Bradberry, CB CAR (18.75) and Jaquiski Tartt, SS SFO (4.00). Each have had IDP value in the past in their own right, and uncovering their skills near the line of scrimmage are definite pluses that add to their repertoire to offer fantasy owners on a weekly basis.
Snap Count Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Derek Barnett, DE PHI (Snap Count: 82%)
Barnett’s time is coming sooner rather than later. Finally leading this stellar defensive line in snap percentage, Barnett produced three QB pressures but couldn’t quite break through with a sack. Pressures are the single greatest predictor of sacks, however, and Barnett is only 23 years old, so I would be looking to scoop him up in redraft or buy low on him for the very last time in dynasty this week.
Linebacker
Kyzir White, LAC (Snap Count: 86%)
The Chargers inside linebacker position is a fruitful one in IDP, and White is finally healthy enough to earn this role. After battling injury and competing against flashy IDP names such as Denzel Perryman, Jatavis Brown, and Hayes Pullard last season, White is finally poised to become a household name in IDP leagues.
Notable: Christian Kirksey, LB CLE. Kirksey enjoyed three consecutive LB1 seasons from 2015-2017, before suffering a season-ending injury in the early stages of 2018. Owners probably benched Kirksey in week one so they could see where Kirksey is at in the rehab process, but those concerns were easily put to rest after playing all 100% of snaps against the Titans. Those bold enough to roll him out were not hurt by his efforts, and as Cleveland looks to right the ship I expect Kirksey to bounce right back into LB1 territory.
Defensive Backs
Jabrill Peppers, FS NYG (Snap Count: 99%)
Jabrill Peppers was one of my favorite young defensive backs when he entered the league, but the Browns used him absolutely horribly. Being aligned closer to the moon than the line of scrimmage for two full seasons, his arrival to New York as part of the OBJ blockbuster trade actually sent his fantasy stock to the moon instead (I’m not a stand-up comic, I’m a stats nerd). Peppers played 99% of snaps in a run-heavy matchup where he led the team in tackles (7 total, 6 solo). Jabrill Peppers can cover as big of a range as any defensive back in the NFL in my opinion, and I am excited to see what happens this year after seeing his role defined in week one. Take a shot on Peppers.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Yannick Ngakoue, DE JAX (Week 2 @ Houston)
If you check the link detailing Disruption Score, you will see that Ngakoue actually breaks the metric. The two highest scoring seasons of all-time have come in his first two years, and he benefitted last week by playing 82% of the snaps. Combine that snap count with his ability to get behind an offensive line, and Ngakoue could easily be the DL1 in week two.
Olivier Vernon, DE CLE (Week 2, @ New York Jets) Vernon was an interesting disappointment in week one. He ranked as my DE22 heading into the season, as the perfect complement on the Browns’ defensive line alongside Myles Garrett. Vernon played 92% of the snaps last week, but somehow did not accrue a single point. I am choosing to look at the process over the results on this one and gearing Vernon back up again, facing a Jets team that tied for the most sacks allowed in week one (5).
Linebacker
Patrick Onwuasor, BAL (Week 2 vs. Arizona)
Onwuasor is the main linebacker to own in a stout Baltimore defensive system. One thing to monitor is how the Ravens offense averages the most plays in the NFL dating back to last season, which puts Ravens defenders at a natural IDP disadvantage. Arizona’s system sets up for a nice day for Onwuasor, however, and his high disruption score gives him multi-sack upside as well in just the second game of Kyler Murray’s career.
Defensive Backs
Vonn Bell, SS NOS (Week 2 @ Los Angeles Rams)
Bell led the team in total tackles last week with seven, and that was with a neutral matchup against the Texans. The Rams are a great matchup for defensive backs, as the Panthers’ starters combined for 18 tackles (13 solo) and a sack. In an up-tempo matchup that should provide for a lot of throwing and receptions to running backs, Bell has the talent to make a few game-changing plays against the Rams as they look to exact revenge for a heartbreaking NFC Championship loss.
Devin McCourty, SS NEP (Week 2, @ Miami)
Defensive Backs are naturally worth less in IDP leagues due to the overwhelming number of eligible players, as well as how one fluky interception can make or break their day. Since that is the case, I like rolling McCourty out there against a lost Miami offense that could easily break Fitzpatrick’s game-high interceptions (5 in one game) mark against a Patriots defense that surprised many in week one.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
