Weekly Positional Rankings: Week One

Michael Zingone

This year, we’re adding something completely new to DLF: Weekly Rankings.

In this series, I’ll give you my top 30 quarterbacks, 60 running backs, 60 wide receivers, and 30 tight ends each week to help you with your start/sit decisions in your leagues. To generate this list each and every week, I examine team trends, Vegas over/unders, implied points, pace of play, among various other factors to build a projection for each player and subsequently adjust rankings for upside and more detailed matchup specifics.

Among the rankings, there will surely be some that surprise you or that you may disagree with. At the end of each position section, I’ll give you my thoughts on some players that perhaps are ranked higher/lower than you might expect and insights as to why they are a good/bad play this week. Ultimately, these rankings should help your start/sit dilemmas and ensure you have the requisite resources to make an informed decision.

Without further ado, let’s dive into Week One’s positional rankings!

Quarterbacks

Position Player Matchup Week 1 Rank
QB Patrick Mahomes @JAC 1
QB Deshaun Watson @NO 2
QB Carson Wentz WAS 3
QB Drew Brees HOU 4
QB Russell Wilson CIN 5
QB Jared Goff @CAR 6
QB Dak Prescott NYG 7
QB Jameis Winston SF 8
QB Lamar Jackson @MIA 9
QB Aaron Rodgers @CHI 10
QB Baker Mayfield TEN 11
QB Jimmy Garoppolo @TB 12
QB Matt Ryan @MIN 13
QB Cam Newton LAR 14
QB Kirk Cousins ATL 15
QB Mitchell Trubisky GB 16
QB Matthew Stafford @ARI 17
QB Kyler Murray DET 18
QB Philip Rivers IND 19
QB Tom Brady PIT 20
QB Ben Roethlisberger @NE 21
QB Nick Foles KC 22
QB Josh Allen @NYJ 23
QB Andy Dalton @SEA 24
QB Jacoby Brissett @LAC 25
QB Sam Darnold BUF 26
QB Eli Manning @DAL 27
QB Joe Flacco @OAK 28
QB Derek Carr DEN 29
QB Marcus Mariota @CLE 30

 

Start ‘em: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF

After making headlines for his (poor) play throughout much of training camp, Jimmy G finished the preseason strong. Completing 14 of his 20 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown in the third preseason game, Garoppolo looked the part of the quarterback many dynasty owners were drafting in the top 12 just one year ago. With a strong finish, Garoppolo is a strong start in week one with confidence against a Buccaneers team ready for a shootout.

Last season, the Buccaneers allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, had you started the quarterback against the Buccaneers in every game, you would have had the QB2 overall on the season, behind only Patrick Mahomes. This year’s Buccaneers team looks just as vulnerable in the secondary and willing to get in shootouts. While the pass-catchers in San Francisco are ambiguous, Jimmy Garoppolo looks to be primed for a QB1 performance in week one.

Sit ‘em: Kyler Murray, QB ARI

Murray has the chance to be a star in the NFL as soon as his first season. The Cardinals have a decent matchup in week one – home against the Lions – but it’s shakier than it appears. For one, the Cardinals offense did not particularly inspire in the preseason. Murray’s overall preseason stats were certainly nothing to be overly excited about.

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Data from FoxSports.

With a lack of rushing and overall inefficiency in the passing game, there’s little reason to think Murray should be a QB1 right away based on these stats. Now, preseason is not the end-all-be-all. The Detroit Lions were good against opposing quarterbacks last season, ranking 13th best in fantasy points allowed to the position. My projections have Murray at 18.80 fantasy points, which is slightly above the Lions’ average of 18.70 points allowed in 2018. The Cardinals are only projected for 22 points in week one (according to DraftKings), which ranks 20th in the NFL. The combination of a lackluster preseason, the unknown of the Cardinals offense, the below-average matchup, and week one of Murray’s rookie season make a this a logical choice.

If you’re desperate: Nick Foles, QB JAX

Nick Foles cashed in big time into a new starting role for the Jaguars. The Jaguars have historically been a run-heavy team, leaning on Leonard Fournette and a strong defense for success. However, things may change in 2019. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo brings with him a history of high volume passing. In two years as an offensive coordinator, DeFilippo’s offense ranked eleventh and sixth in passing attempts. While it’s no certainty, there’s reason to expect the Jaguars to improve upon their bottom-half ranking in passing volume each of the last two years.

In terms of Foles’ week one matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs were one of the worst teams against quarterbacks in fantasy football during the 2018 season, letting up an average of 22.4 fantasy points per game to the position. This, in large part, is simply due to their opponents being down and forced to pass to get back in the game. While the Chiefs’ offense may regress a bit in 2019, they should still be a lock to be one of the best in the game. The Jaguars, one of four home underdogs in week one, will need to match the Chiefs through the air for any real chance of staying in this game. Nick Foles would stand to benefit if that is the case. There are certainly worse desperation plays this week.

Running Backs

Position Player Matchup Week 1 Rank
RB Saquon Barkley @DAL 1
RB Alvin Kamara HOU 2
RB Christian McCaffrey LAR 3
RB Ezekiel Elliott NYG 4
RB Le’Veon Bell BUF 5
RB David Johnson DET 6
RB Dalvin Cook ATL 7
RB Nick Chubb TEN 8
RB Joe Mixon @SEA 9
RB Leonard Fournette KC 10
RB Todd Gurley @CAR 11
RB Chris Carson CIN 12
RB Kerryon Johnson @ARI 13
RB James Conner @NE 14
RB Austin Ekeler IND 15
RB Devonta Freeman @MIN 16
RB Josh Jacobs DEN 17
RB Sony Michel PIT 18
RB Mark Ingram @MIA 19
RB Duke Johnson @NO 20
RB Aaron Jones @CHI 21
RB James White PIT 22
RB Damien Williams @JAC 23
RB Kenyan Drake BAL 24
RB Tevin Coleman @TB 25
RB Phillip Lindsay @OAK 26
RB David Montgomery GB 27
RB Tarik Cohen GB 28
RB Derrick Henry @CLE 29
RB Marlon Mack @LAC 30
RB Miles Sanders WAS 31
RB Derrius Guice @PHI 32
RB Devin Singletary @NYJ 33
RB Jaylen Samuels @NE 34
RB Rashaad Penny CIN 35
RB Latavius Murray HOU 36
RB Matt Breida @TB 37
RB Jordan Howard WAS 38
RB Lesean McCoy @JAC 39
RB Justin Jackson IND 40
RB Nyheim Hines @LAC 41
RB Peyton Barber SF 42
RB Tony Pollard NYG 43
RB Darrell Henderson @CAR 44
RB Justice Hill @MIA 45
RB Kalen Ballage BAL 46
RB Giovani Bernard @SEA 47
RB Jalen Richard DEN 48
RB Dion Lewis @CLE 49
RB Chris Thompson @PHI 50
RB Carlos Hyde @NO 51
RB TJ Yeldon @NYJ 52
RB Royce Freeman @OAK 53
RB Ronald Jones SF 54
RB Adrian Peterson @PHI 55
RB Frank Gore @NYJ 56
RB Ty Montgomery BUF 57
RB Damien Harris PIT 58
RB Dontrell Hilliard TEN 59
RB Darwin Thompson @JAC 60

 

Start ‘em: Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

With Melvin Gordon sitting out for the foreseeable future, Ekeler gets a major short-term boost. While many were not relying upon Ekeler to be an RB2 for their dynasty teams, he is firmly in that conversation each and every week until Gordon returns. In week one, Ekeler has a plus matchup against the Colts. The Chargers are of course a heavy favorite at home against the Jacoby Brissett-lead Colt. Additionally, the Colts were also one of the weaker teams against opposing RB1s in 2018, allowing 15.3 fantasy points per game (tenth-worst in the NFL).

Justin Jackson certainly lurks as a potential beneficiary with Gordon’s absence. As Jackson sees more carries, it in turn naturally limits Ekeler’s upside. However, Ekeler’s efficiency both on the ground and through the air makes him the clear better play until proven otherwise. In three weeks Ekeler was active and Gordon was not in 2018, Ekeler never saw fewer than 17 total touches. My projections for week one have Ekeler totaling 17.6 touches for 98 total yards and 0.67 touchdowns. He’s firmly in RB2 territory and makes for a quality option to start.

Sit ‘em: Derrick Henry, RB TEN

Everyone remembers Derrick Henry’s massive end to the 2018 season. The former Alabama stud put up 585 rushing yards over the final four weeks last season. This accounted for more than half of his overall rushing stats. Dynasty players are certainly hoping this late-season usage spills over into 2019, and the signs are there that it should.

However, in week one, Henry does not have an appealing outlook. For one thing, he is coming off of a calf injury that limited him significantly in the preseason. While he may claim to be fully healed and ready to go, there’s reason to be hesitant about players with calf injuries (too soon?). Secondly, Henry and the Titans are going up against a much-improved Browns team on the road as a six point underdog. The Titans as a team have the sixth-fewest implied points for week one at 19.75. Henry, who is not known for his passing chops, may find himself hard-pressed in the game script department to make a serious impact. He’s always one who can break off a long run, but that might be tough to rely on in the first week of the fantasy football season.

If you’re desperate: Nyheim Hines, RB IND

Speaking of game script, Nyheim Hines is set up nicely for a good PPR day against the Chargers, who in 2018 let up 27.2 fantasy points per game to the running back position (ninth worst in the NFL). The Colts will likely need to rely more on the pass against the Chargers’ high powered offense. Last season, the Colts had a 10-6 record. In their ten wins, Nyheim Hines averaged 3.5 targets per game. In their six losses, he averaged 7.7 targets per game.

Hines is no doubt one of the better pass-catching specialists in the league. His rookie season stats compare very similarly to Tarik Cohen’s during his rookie campaign. The Colts, seven-point road underdogs in week one, would be wise to utilize Hines more when they inevitably enter “catch-up mode”. Hines has a realistic 20-point ceiling while offering a floor of six or seven PPR points in week one. He’s a good play if you’re desperate for running back production.

Wide Receivers

Position Player Matchup Week 1 Rank
WR DeAndre Hopkins @NO 1
WR Julio Jones @MIN 2
WR Michael Thomas HOU 3
WR Juju Smith-Schuster @NE 4
WR Mike Evans SF 5
WR Tyreek Hill @JAC 6
WR Odell Beckham Jr TEN 7
WR Davante Adams @CHI 8
WR Adam Thielen ATL 9
WR Tyler Lockett CIN 10
WR Keenan Allen IND 11
WR Kenny Golladay @ARI 12
WR Tyler Boyd @SEA 13
WR Antonio Brown DEN 14
WR Brandin Cooks @CAR 15
WR Stefon Diggs ATL 16
WR Julian Edelman PIT 17
WR Dede Westbrook KC 18
WR Robert Woods @CAR 19
WR Amari Cooper NYG 20
WR Chris Godwin SF 21
WR Alshon Jeffery WAS 22
WR DJ Moore LAR 23
WR Dante Pettis @TB 24
WR Allen Robinson GB 25
WR TY Hilton @LAC 26
WR Mike Williams IND 27
WR Jarvis Landry TEN 28
WR Christian Kirk DET 29
WR Sterling Shepard @DAL 30
WR Courtland Sutton @OAK 31
WR Corey Davis @CLE 32
WR Marvin Jones @ARI 33
WR Cooper Kupp @CAR 34
WR Tyrell Williams DEN 35
WR Robby Anderson BUF 36
WR Calvin Ridley @MIN 37
WR Josh Gordon PIT 38
WR Curtis Samuel LAR 39
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling @CHI 40
WR Albert Wilson BAL 41
WR Larry Fitzgerald DET 42
WR Desean Jackson WAS 43
WR Will Fuller @NO 44
WR Michael Gallup NYG 45
WR Donte Moncrief @NE 46
WR Sammy Watkins @JAC 47
WR John Brown @NYJ 48
WR Jamison Crowder BUF 49
WR Geronimo Allison @CHI 50
WR Tre’Quan Smith HOU 51
WR Marquise Goodwin @TB 52
WR Marqise Lee KC 53
WR Mohamed Sanu @MIN 54
WR Anthony Miller GB 55
WR Adam Humphries @CLE 56
WR Devante Parker BAL 57
WR Emmanuel Sanders @OAK 58
WR Trey Quinn @PHI 59
WR James Washington @NE 60

 

Start ‘em: Dede Westbrook, WR JAX

For many of the same reasons laid out for why Nick Foles is a good desperation play in week one, Dede Westbrook finds himself in a great spot against a porous Chiefs secondary. Westbrook is the only true established receiver on this Jaguars team. While Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley have all shown flashes before, while Westbrook performed consistently late last season.

Over the final eight weeks in 2018, Westbrook recorded at least a 22% target market share in all but one game. He was the focal point of this offense. Foles and Westbrook have already gotten off to a strong start, linking up for seven targets in their week three preseason game. For more on the Foles-Westbrook connection, check out Ryan Miller’s article from earlier this off-season. Westbrook is a strong start this week.

Sit ‘em: Donte Moncrief, WR PIT

It’s a tough proposition to suggest to bench the potential WR2 for the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that threw the ball nearly 700 times last season. While Moncrief has potential to be a solid fantasy asset this coming season, week one sets up to be a “wait-and-see” week for the once dynasty darling. The Steelers head to Foxboro in a Sunday night clash with the Patriots. As six-point underdogs, the Steelers may be put in a position to throw the ball throughout the game.

However, the Patriots were fantastic against WRs in 2018 and look to also be strong in that area this season. Last year, the Patriots had to defend the seventh most targets to receivers in the NFL. Yet, they allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per target to the position in the league. JuJu Smith-Schuster will get his targets, but expect Vance McDonald, James Conner, and Jaylen Samuels to be heavily involved as the Steelers look to attack the weaknesses of this Patriots team. Moncrief has a low floor and, if you have better options, is safe to leave on your bench week one.

If you’re desperate: Michael Gallup, WR DAL

A constant in the positive news blurbs this offseason, Gallup has an exciting week one matchup at home against a bad Giants defense. In fact, ESPN’s Mike Clay ranked the Giants as having the worst defense in the NFL for 2019. Ezekiel Elliot is back in the lineup and will surely take his fair share of touches. However, number one wide-out Amari Cooper has been dealing with an injury much of the off-season. It would not be surprising to see the Cowboys ease Cooper back into the lineup now that Zeke is back. Coming into his own as a downfield playmaker, Gallup has a good chance of filling up the stat sheet in week one if you need a WR3/Flex play.

Tight Ends

Position Player Matchup Week 1 Rank
TE George Kittle @TB 1
TE Travis Kelce @JAC 2
TE Zach Ertz WAS 3
TE Evan Engram @DAL 4
TE OJ Howard SF 5
TE Hunter Henry IND 6
TE Jared Cook HOU 7
TE Jordan Reed @PHI 8
TE Mark Andrews @MIA 9
TE Vance McDonald @NE 10
TE David Njoku TEN 11
TE Delanie Walker @CLE 12
TE Austin Hooper @MIN 13
TE Kyle Rudolph ATL 14
TE Greg Olsen LAR 15
TE Eric Ebron @LAC 16
TE Jimmy Graham @CHI 17
TE TJ Hockenson @ARI 18
TE Trey Burton GB 19
TE Darren Waller DEN 20
TE Noah Fant @OAK 21
TE Matt LaCosse PIT 22
TE Tyler Eifert @SEA 23
TE Will Dissly CIN 25
TE Geoff Swaim KC 24
TE Dallas Goedert WAS 26
TE Gerald Everett @CAR 27
TE Mike Gesicki BAL 28
TE Cameron Brate SF 29
TE Jack Doyle @LAC 30

 

Start ‘em: Delanie Walker, TE TEN

With the rise of OJ Howard, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and other young talented tight ends, the “old men” of the NFL have seemingly been forgotten. Walker has fully recovered from the ankle injury that ended his season in 2018 and enters 2019 as a clear favorite target in the Titans passing offense. While the Titans may not want to pass the ball near the top of the league this upcoming season, they may have to in week one on the road against the Browns.

This is a good matchup for Walker. In 2018, the Cleveland Browns gave up 15.3 fantasy points per game to the tight end position, which was fourth-worst in the league. If the Titans get into catch-up mode early, which is a real possibility, then they’ll need to go to Walker often to make plays over the middle of the field. As shown in the preseason, Walker is still a red zone presence for this Titans team and is a good bet for a touchdown against a defense that allowed seven scores to tight ends just a season ago.

Sit ‘em: Trey Burton, TE CHI

There’s a bit of a theme to week one’s suggested sits: “wait-and-see” or injury. Burton falls into the second category. Last season’s TE8, Burton was largely unpredictable week to week but ultimately performed well at year-end for fantasy owners. After coming off of sports hernia surgery this off-season, Burton has missed essentially all of the preseason recovering. While he’s cleared to play in week one’s Thursday night’s showdown against the Bears, he’s not a strong play for your fantasy team.

Besides the injury, Burton’s matchup against the Packers is not ideal. In 2018, the Packers surrendered just ten fantasy points per game to the tight end position, good for ninth best in the NFL. Expect a healthy Allen Robinson, the newly acquired David Montgomery, and the electric Tarik Cohen to lead the Bears offense on Thursday night. It would be surprising to see Burton get more than five targets. You can likely find better.

If you’re desperate: Will Dissly, TE SEA

The key to weekly tight end sleepers is simple: opportunity. The tricky part with the Seattle tight end situation is knowing which one will earn the requisite snaps for fantasy success. The Seahawks have a fantastic matchup in week one against a bad Bengals team/defense. They are nine-point home favorites, and Russell Wilson should be able to do whatever he wants on the field. With an injured/unproven receiving room other than Tyler Lockett, Dissly has a chance to regain his pre-injury success from 2018.

The Bengals last season averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, which ranked second-worst in the NFL. Combined with a plus matchup and injuries to other receivers, Dissly could be in line for a big game and is a solid flier in a 2TE league. The one caveat to Dissly, of course, is his health. This factor is why Dissly falls under this category and is ranked where he is. If health were not a factor, Dissly might be near the top 12 tight end ranks in week one. If he does not play, Nick Vannett is also a strong choice for a desperation tight end play for similar reasons.

That concludes this week’s rankings article! As this series is released on Thursdays, be sure to follow any lingering injuries and changing injury status updates for players as Sunday approaches. If you’re wondering about a player I didn’t dive into detail about, feel free to reach out to me @FFzinger on Twitter. Best of luck this week, and I’ll be back next week to give Week Two’s positional rankings.

michael zingone
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