Cornerstone Report: Week Two

Frank Gruber

Welcome to the second installment of the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.

Each week examines one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season. It uses tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.

Last week’s debut edition can be found here. Also, be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.

I welcome thoughts and suggestions in the comments section and on twitter (@threedownhack).

NCAA Week One/NFL Week One

Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

He made a case for 2020 RB1 with his week one rushing line of 16-135-2 versus USF. Perhaps more importantly, Taylor produced a receiving line of 2-48-2, addressing my primary concern of his PPR upside (Taylor caught just 16 balls in his first two seasons).

This is hardly a sensational catch and run, but an encouraging nab outside his frame. It is also promising to see Taylor schemed in the passing game, aligned outside the numbers in an empty backfield set.

Meanwhile, Taylor’s ball-carrying vision, quickness and finishing speed remain unquestioned.

I’ve moved Jonathan Taylor above Zamir White as 2020 RB1 – and number five player overall – in my DLF Cornerstone Rankings, where he sits at number eight overall among the DLF staff.

Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota

Gophers sophomore receiver Rashod Bateman – a Devy gem in his own right and potential 2021 WR1 – stole the show in week one while Johnson turned in a 3-28-0 receiving line.

Johnson projects as a first-round dynasty pick as a 2020 junior and remains my WR1 in the class. His prospect profile is already elite with a sophomore year breakout age (19.4) and excellent dominator rating of 0.61.

In fact, PFF graded Johnson’s 2018 season as its fifth-best year of any college receiver under the age of 21 since 2014.

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Statistics from PFF.

Devy players should leverage the buzz around fellow Gopher Rashod Bateman to dig for a discounted deal from an impatient Johnson owner. As a reference point, in a two-round combined 2020/2021 superflex mock draft I recently hosted on DLF, Johnson was selected at 2.01 with Bateman just behind at 2.04.

Quick Hits…

JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State has a lot riding on this season. The former top 50 overall recruit has had an inconsistent career. Week one was no different as he showed off his strength:

But Dobbins also fumbled and was criticized for a lack of vision on some plays. His current value is around the superflex rookie 1.11 pick but I expect volatility between now and rookie drafts.

Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

Edwards is well known in devy circles for his elite breakout age (18.0 years). His devy ADP remains around 15th overall but his resume is compiling red flags. This trend continued with a 1-7-0 receiving line in week one with a quarterback change incoming for the Gamecocks.

Devin Singletary, RB BUF

The Bills released 31-year-old running back LeSean McCoy on August 31, clearing the way for Singletary to assume a more prominent role. Opinions differ on the extent of that role but his rise in dynasty value is certain.

The DLF ADP Comparison tool shows that Singletary’s average draft position remained stable this off-season and an attractive value compared to other rookie backs in his range.

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While ADP data does not yet fully capture Singletary’s value after the McCoy release, the DLF team now ranks Singletary as the rookie 1.08, and recent MFL trades show the uptick:

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I have long loved Devin Singletary as a rookie value pick but hesitate to heavily invest in him. Buffalo running backs rushed for only a combined 349-1,228-4 in 2018 with 61-490-0 receiving. While the offense is trending up, in steps TJ Yeldon and his 171 career receptions in four seasons.

Dynasty owners are fast to poke fun at Yeldon but he limits Singletary’s ceiling within an offense that in 2018 finished 31st in yards per offensive play and 30th in percentage of offensive drives ending in a score.

N’Keal Harry, WR NE

New England placed Harry on injured reserve on September 2, after I featured him as a buy-low candidate in last week’s report.

Using the DLF Trade Finder to pull real-life trades since September 2 highlights Harry’s depressed value:

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Going Deeper…

Devine Ozigbo, RB JAC

Once thought to have locked up the RB3 role in New Orleans, Ozigbo was released by the Saints on and claimed by Jacksonville.

Although an undrafted free agent, Ozigbo possesses the size, athleticism, college production profile – and now situation, given the thin Jaguars RB depth chart behind Leonard Fournette – to merit consideration as an end of bench flyer.

Thanks for reading this installment of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack to discuss.

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