2019 Rookie Wide Receiver Upside Analysis: Part Three
Welcome back for part three of my deep-dive look into the upside of the 2019 wide receiver class!
In part one, I outlined the general process I’m using, my goals, my disclaimers and took a look back at recent draft classes to help give you an example of what this metric tells you. I’m going to trust that you actually looked at all of that and get right down to business with the current draft class. If you didn’t already read part one, you might want to go back and take a look.
Click here for part two, where I analyze the initial groupings of players as identified by the metric.
I’m going to talk a bit about most of the meaningful prospects and what they bring to the table, both in terms of their physical traits and their other abilities. For the top receivers, I’m going to push them to a special article because they deserve a little extra attention in my eyes.
Keep in mind that a score of a zero is the average for the best wide receivers in the NFL, so there is absolutely nothing wrong with being around zero or even a little bit negative. Where I start getting concerned is when a player gets below a -2 and especially when they are below a -4. The score in the parenthesis is the score without height and arm length factored in for those who feel height is overrated. Also, not all players participated fully in the combine. If you see an asterisk next to their name, they missed at least two drills at the combine, so their score might not be 100 percent accurate. On with the show!
Slightly Limited Upside (Scores between -4 and -2)
Cody Thompson: -2.028 (-0.475)
Antoine Wesley: -2.240 (-4.500)
*Tyre Brady: -2.282 (-3.794)
Johnnie Dixon: -2.657 (0.824)
Jazz Ferguson: -2.783 (-5.686)
In this group we are talking about receivers who are a bit below the top performing receivers in the NFL in terms of physical ability. These are the players who likely fit into one of two categories. Either their upside is going to be limited to a best case of WR2 but more likely WR3, or they are the smaller receivers this metric is a little harsher on.
If it is the latter, then their score without height (in parentheses) should be several points higher. Thompson and Dixon are perfect examples. They are significantly higher without height factors in the equation, meaning they still have higher-end upside.
If the converse is true, where the second number (non-height number) is significantly lower, then they are big targets with very limited athletic ability. Think Kelvin Benjamin as an example. In this case, their future is typically a little less promising in the NFL.
As for the rest, they are likely to be capped a bit by their lack of athletic ability. That doesn’t mean they aren’t fantasy worthy, just that they have a little lower ceiling than some others.
Overall, this group is smaller than we normally see at this point in the metric. This is due to the larger number of players on the positive side of the metric, as I discussed in part two of the series. Once we get to the -2 to -4 range, I’m primarily interested in players who show an increase when going from their height score to their non-height score. Players who go the other way, like Ferguson, have a very poor track record of success at this point in the scale. If it had been a +4 to a +2, that is completely different. But going from -3 to -5 is a really bad thing.
One thing that all five of these young men have in common is that they went undrafted. That right there is a pretty big hit to their potential. Mix in the fact that they are behind the curve from an overall athletic standpoint and you do not have a recipe for success. I would consider all five of them to be long shots at best right now.
Thompson and Dixon are both players who I think profile best as slot receivers. I’m not sure either of them will ever get the opportunity to earn a starting role, but it is where their skill sets seem to fit best. I think they are more special teams players.
The other three receivers are all big bodies with relatively limited athletic ability. All three of them have some glaring issues in terms of speed, agility, or explosiveness. Some of them are lacking in all three areas. They could find their way onto the field in a red zone role or some other limited time role, but I don’t see any of the three developing into a consistent, full-time receiver for an NFL team.
Larger Concerns (Scores between -6 and -4)
Andy Isabella: -4.290 (0.044)
*Mecole Hardman: -4.497 (-1.015)
Dillon Mitchell: -4.681 (-3.546)
David Sills: -4.999 (-5.151)
*Anthony Johnson: -5.060 (-4.255)
Jaylen Smith: -5.149 (-6.438)
Kelvin Harmon: -5.352 (-5.489)
Ryan Davis: -5.578 (-2.620)
Jamarius Way: -5.702 (-6.691)
Jakobi Meyers: -5.951 (-5.669)
This is the point when I start to get really concerned. Almost no one in this range or lower, who actually completed all of the combine drills, ends up turning into a WR2 or better. The only exceptions are those players who are very undersized and have a large gap between their height based score and non-height score. A current example of a top receiver who fits this profile is TY Hilton.
Anyone who isn’t on the extreme when it comes to physical size is facing an uphill climb to relevance. Isabella is the best example in this group of a player who could be the size exception, since his score without height factored in is almost four-and-a-half points higher. I’ll touch on Isabella in the top receivers section, but lets look at a few other players in this group as well since some of them are bigger names.
Hardman suddenly exploded into potential fantasy relevance for one reason only: he was drafted by the Chiefs in the middle of the Tyreek Hill debacle. Some claimed he was their replacement in case Hill was suspended for a long time; however, even if Hill was off the field, I don’t think Hardman has the skills to step into that spot. Yes, he has great speed. His agility isn’t as great as many think, though. He is also extremely raw as a receiver.
I think Hardman’s real role will be as a return specialist for the first few years as they try to turn him into a receiver. Even if they are successful, I don’t think he has the athletic ability to live up to the draft stock that is/was being invested in him, both NFL and in some fantasy drafts. The fact that Hill is going to be there on week one only hurts his stock more.
The other bigger name on this list is Harmon. Pre-draft, there were some people talking about him as being one of their top receivers in this draft class. I can see a little bit of what they liked. At 6’2” and 220 pounds, he plays even bigger than that. He bullies defenders in contested situations and shows off some great hands. My concern for him is that every situation is contested because he can’t separate.
He lacks the speed and agility required to separate. In that way, he is like a smaller Kelvin Benjamin. Okay, maybe that is a bit harsh. He has more receiver skills than Benjamin, but athletically speaking he is in a similar situation. I don’t see the separation issues improving when he is playing against NFL level talent, and I think the NFL agreed when he wasn’t drafted until the sixth round. He had some great highlights in college, but I don’t see him being a relevant player in the NFL.
Meyers has made some noise in training camp, largely due to the team he is playing for right now. Any Patriots receiver, especially given the lack of established talent on the depth chart, deserves a little attention. Unfortunately, Meyers doesn’t fit the physical profile of a weekly fantasy starter, largely due to his lack of speed. However, he did show good explosiveness in the jumps and shuttle drills. The Patriots have shown in the past that they can take players with that particular skill set and turn them into big time weapons in the slot. There are a lot of ifs, but he could turn into the next weapon for them if he makes the team and continues to develop.
As for the rest of the players on the list (remember Isabella is coming later), there really isn’t much to say. They are likely to be late-round or undrafted guys with very little if any fantasy relevance. Maybe they make a team and become a fifth receiver and a special teams player, but history shows their chances of doing anything significant are limited to about once every five years.
Other Notable Players (Below -6)
Riley Ridley: -6.139 (-5.948)
Diontae Johnson: -10.262 (-7.199)
Hunter Renfrow: -11.353 (-6.929)
Marquise Brown: Incomplete
Much like his brother last year, Ridley didn’t have a great showing at the combine. However, he also doesn’t have the supreme production of his brother. What he does have is the same football IQ and instincts. With that said, I don’t think he can be as good as his brother was last year. I think he is one of those players who will be an important special teams contributor and a reliable third or fourth receiver on a team; however, I think consistent production at the NFL level will be out of reach for him.
Johnson is a perfect example of the kind of player who fails by this metric but still might be successful. It has happened before for players like Hilton and Wes Welker – players who are undersized and lacking in pure athletic ability. These phenoms, however, have supreme work ethic, great instincts, and hands that make quarterbacks smile.
Being drafted by the Steelers in the early third round definitely catches my attention as well, not only due to the draft capital invested, but because the Steelers have a pretty good history when it comes to drafting receivers. They have managed to hit on numerous middle and late round receivers, and they have done so at a significantly higher rate than the rest of the NFL. Players like Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace are great examples.
Athletically speaking, Johnson is below average in everything. Nonetheless, the fact that the Steelers saw enough that they liked to spend a top-70 pick on him has me intrigued. He makes for a solid stash regardless of his score.
Renfrow has been getting a lot of looks as a potential sleeper for the Raiders. He started college as a walk-on and became a key piece of a national championship team. His work ethic and football character are off the charts. He is slightly limited from an athletic standpoint. He has good quickness and change of direction ability, but he is extremely undersized and lacks top-end speed.
He is the kind of player who had to work twice as hard as a lot of other players to get to the same place, so you want him to succeed. There is a reason he lost playing time this past year in college and wasn’t ever the featured piece of the offense, though. He’s going to be hard-pressed to put up huge stats.
The final player on this list is Brown. He was unable to do anything at the combine due to his foot injury, so I gave him an incomplete for a grade. What we did see from the scale and the measuring tape didn’t really help him. He was the lightest player at the combine and is only 5’9” tall. People made a huge deal out of Tavon Austin’s size a few years ago, but Austin is actually a little bigger than Brown. Maybe Brown can do what Austin couldn’t, but I think he could be heading down the same path, especially in the offense the Ravens run. I think Brown is going to be more of a weapon for the Ravens than he will be a reliable fantasy asset. Mix in the concerns about his foot and I’m staying away from this one.
That’s it for the field. The fourth and final part of the series will have a breakdown of the top-seven receivers in this class, complete with a more detailed look at their scores and how I view them moving forward. Be sure to check back for that. Thanks for reading!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
