Five Running Backs I’m Buying Right Now

Bruce Matson

I’m a zero RB zealot. I don’t invest in running backs and I usually don’t draft them in the early rounds of startup drafts. Outside of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey at the top of the first round, I like to completely fade the position. I like to leave drafts loaded at wide receiver with a gang of RB2s and satellite backs.

Since I hold the position to a different light compared to most people, my process is a little bit different. I like to buy pass-catching backs on the cheap, play penny stocks with running backs who could receive a bounce back in value, and bank on my abilities to restock my depth chart through rookie drafts.

Even though the process is a little different, the end game is still the same. I want to effectively build my roster for the future while trying to win now. I have the rest of my positions usually covered along with my flex spots. I’m just trying to scrape by at running back until I can find a suitable option on the cheap.

Nonetheless, my approach leads to some interesting buys in dynasty. You aren’t going to catch me trying to trade for any top-ten backs. More than likely, you’re going to see me trade for younger running backs who haven’t hit yet or a veteran who just hit a bad course of luck and is falling in the rankings.

As we head into the regular season, here are five running backs who I’m buying right now:

Justice Hill, RB BAL

After an impressive preseason campaign where he rushed for 90 yards and one touchdown, Hill is one of my top buys in all of dynasty. He led all running backs with ten avoided tackles throughout the first three weeks of the preseason. Per Pro Football Focus, he is averaging 2.78 yards after contact per attempt. Hill is making defenders miss at an alarming rate. Those skills should translate to the regular season when he will be given the opportunity to showcase what he can do.

Last year he rushed for 930 yards and nine touchdowns while owning a 15.35 percent market of the team’s offensive production. Those numbers would have been more impressive if he didn’t miss three games and didn’t have to share the backfield with talented redshirt freshman running back Chuba Hubbard. Prior to last season, he posted two 1,000-yard seasons.

The Ravens led the NFL last year with 33.5 rush attempts per game and their 48 percent rush rate ranked third in the league. Lamar Jackson rushed for 695 yards and five touchdowns last year and he’s one of the best running quarterbacks I have ever seen. Jackson’s dual-threat abilities will widen the running lanes for the running backs which will trickle down to some golden opportunities for Hill.

The 29-year-old Mark Ingram will be a roadblock during the first part of the season. However, many people including myself are projecting Hill to take over a large market share of the touches out of the backfield once the season progresses. His play during the preseason is a testament to pre-draft evaluations pegging him as a shifty back with plenty of burst and speed. Baltimore is the perfect destination for him. Jackson takes some of the load from him and there’s enough volume in the run game to keep him consistently viable on a week-to-week basis.

Hill rolled into August with a 118.33 ADP. However, his stock should see an increase considering how well he played in the preseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets routinely selected in the top-100. Even though his cost has increased in the last few weeks, I still see him as a buy. If he can finish the season unscathed, his price tag will at least maintain it’s value. If he flashes in the back half of the season, his ADP will easily rise 20 spots or more. If he can produce a few RB1 weeks down the stretch, he could be valued as a top-15 back going into the off-season.

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Unless Hill suffers a devastating injury, which could happen to any player, he is a very safe investment to make in dynasty. By the end of the season, his value will either increase or hover around the same price point. The sad thing about his dynasty stock is his owners expect you to overpay for him. They know what they have and they aren’t going to let go of him unless they receive adequate compensation. Keep this in mind while you’re kicking the tires. If you can’t land him via trade, then I suggest trying again during the middle of the season, preferably before he breaks out. No-loss investments are the ones you want to look into when you are building your teams because the risk is limited while there’s still some upside to be had in the deal.

Marlon Mack, RB IND

Andrew Lucks’ retirement created a large value shift for multiple Colts players. Just about every player on the team had their fantasy value tethered to Luck’s ability to consistently keep the chains moving. With Jacoby Brissett under center, the Colts offense will look a lot different compared to last year. The recent changes are causing a lot of people to fade Colts players in fantasy. Obviously, this will create a value arbitrage to capitalize on.

Mack rushed for 908 yards and nine touchdowns in ten games last season. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry while establishing 2.84 yards after contact per attempt. 27.5 percent of his runs went for 15 yards or more. He’s a highly athletic back who is very efficient with the ball in his hands.

The Colts ranked seventh in the league with a 62 percent pass rate. With Luck out of the picture, the team will lean more towards the run which means they will be dialing up plays for Mack more often. They also ran the ball 39 percent of the time on first down. That number will definitely increase considering the team’s circumstances at quarterback. Brissett should be improved compared to his 2017 campaign when Luck was out with a severe shoulder injury. Although the Colts won’t be as explosive as in recent years, they won’t be left for dead either.

There are some risks involved here. With the pass game being less threatening, Mack could see more stacked boxes. He rushed for just 3.1 yards per carry when playing against eight men in the box or more. The offense could completely derail, killing Mack’s ability to be a reliable fantasy asset.

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I’m buying Mack, but I’m not paying up for him. I’m staying away if he’s being valued anywhere near his 38.67 August ADP. I need a discount for me to move forward. Now, while his owner is possibly on tilt, is the perfect time to make offers. This is a moderately risky investment because there’s a chance that the entire offense including Mack falls on its face this season. However, he’s a guy worth trying to get as a plug-and-play RB2 for your dynasty team.

Latavius Murray, RB NO

Murray signed a four-year $14.4 million contract in March with the New Orleans Saints. It’s technically a glorified two-year deal since his dead cap figures drop significantly after the second year of his contract. Last year he rushed for 574 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.1 yards per carry for the Vikings. He shrugged off 14 tackles on 140 carries which allowed him to accumulate 2.89 yards after contact per attempt.

He is sliding into Ingram’s former role with the Saints. Ingram produced RB1 statistics two of the last three seasons. Saints running backs received a target or a rush attempt on 34.31 plays per game during the last two years. Alvin Kamara saw 56.31 percent of the rush attempts and passing targets out of the backfield last season. The team generally likes to split the workload between two running backs. Kamara and Ingram received 89.22 percent of the rush attempts and passing targets out of the backfield over the last two years. Murray’s workload which will offer RB1 upside with an RB2 floor.

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When it comes to value, Murray is currently sitting at RB45 with a 121 ADP. He’s falling out of the top-100 in the majority of the drafts. Murray isn’t your guy if you’re looking for a running back to contribute to your team for the next five years. On the flipside, if you’re looking for a plug-and-play running back you can use for a couple of years, you will want to take a look at Murray. For a player who runs a 4.43 40-yard dash at 223 pounds and is in one of the best situations for a running back in the league, Murray’s price tag is very affordable.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Bernard will be a free agent at the end of the season. Trayveon Williams is already slotted as his replacement. Bernard will hit the free agent market and could be playing in a more promising situation in 2020. He’s one of the most underrated satellite backs in the league and he could serve value as a pass catching specialist for a lot of teams.

I’m gambling with this move. I’m adding shares of Bernard in hopes that he lands in a more favorable situation next year. Obviously, I might eat a loss if he doesn’t. Part of the game is gambling on players whether it be their talent or their situation.

Joe Mixon is the workhorse in Cincinnati and will lead the team in touches out of the backfield again in 2019. Bernard’s numbers will be limited, driving down his cost in dynasty. That said, he might be a better buy in the middle of the season when he’s posting nonexistent fantasy results. Bernard only played in 12 games last year, equating to a career low 48 targets in the passing game.

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At one point, Bernard had an ADP in the top-ten. Now, he’s barely treading water in the 200-range with a 178.33 ADP. He’s dirt cheap which makes the risk minimal at best. We aren’t breaking the bank with this gamble. It’s another penny stock type of move. If the investment doesn’t pan out then there’s really no loss. If he lands with a team that has a high powered offense, then his stock will rise, possible flirting with the top-120 in ADP. I like Bernard because he’s a cheap no-risk acquisition.

Devin Singletary, RB BUF

I have a love-hate relationship with Singletary. I love what I see from him on tape. I think he can make things happen when he has the ball in his hands. He does an excellent job at making defenders miss in the second level. Unfortunately, his athletic metrics scare me and those bad times also transition to his tape. He will never blow past an opposing defense for a long run. I like to compare him to Gregg Maddux, he will never overpower you, but he will efficiently pick his running lanes and produce on the field.

Singletary will be competing for meaningful touches early in his career. [Eds.: recent developments have cleared the way considerably in this regard.] When he starts getting a large market share of the carries his dynasty value will spike. I’m simply banking on this scenario, so I can resell him for a profit. He has some potential, but I don’t want to be left holding the bag when the Bills decide to bring in a more athletic specimen to compete with him for touches. If you don’t believe me, look at all the monsters in our devy rankings.

At Florida Atlantic last year, Singletary rushed for 1,348 yards and 22 touchdowns which equated to a 24.09 percent ownership of the team’s offensive production. He also posted 96 missed tackles on the season. During his career at FAU, he proved that he’s a very effective runner who can make guys miss in the open field. His vision and approach to the line of scrimmage is a game-changer.

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I’m buying Singletary. Especially at his current cost. He has an ADP of 121.17 which should increase after his solid performance during the preseason. I’m planning to flip him for profit once he sees a sizable workload. He’s a young running back who has a very interesting profile. Once he starts producing, his overall value should skyrocket. The odds of this happening are very good. I think he’s more than capable of being fantasy relevant. I just question how long he can hold down the fort. I can have my cake and eat it too if I just sell when the stock is hot.

bruce matson